US Strategic Reports future scenarios: War possible between Turkey, and Greece, Russia and Syria (Part 3)

- Scenarios focus on Turkey’s key relations with Russia, Israel, Iran, and the Caucasus

- In one scenario, Greece and Syria fight Turkey and Israel in 2007. Israeli jets defeat Greeks

- Turkey and Israel occupy Syria in 2008 after Assad’s plane is shot down while he is fleeing to Sudan’

- Israeli coup topples Saddam and Iraq splits into three states

- In third scenario, Russia and Greece occupy Turkey and independent Kurdistan established

- After Russia's de facto disintegration, ‘Turkish Empire’ emerges across Caucasus and Central Asia,’ the fourth scenario suggests

By Ugur Akinci
Turkish Daily News
Friday, May 16, 1997

Washington-A Pentagon-sponsored strategic assessment of Turkey’s future between 1997-2020 prepared by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) of Virginia develops four possible scenarios revolving around Turkey’s relations with four key players:Israel, Iran, Russia, and Greece.

The SAIC report entitled "Turkey Futures Workshop Final Report," grew out of a Dec. 1996 conference attended by senior current and former members of the U.S. intelligence community, plus administration officials and scholars. (For a full list of participants see Part I.)

Among the "significant findings" of the report, we have already focused on two in the previous segments: that "Islam will not dominate Turkey," and "Turkish military may lose viability as guarantor of the political system."

Today, in this third and final segment, we will present brief summaries of these four scenarios dealt with in great detail in the original report.

(We recommend those interested in the topic to get the original report from SAIC, Strategic Assessment Center.)

· Scenario #1) Turkey and Iran Reconcile.

· Scenario #2) Turkey and Israel establish new security order in the Middle East.

· Scenario #3) Resurgent Russia tames Turkey.

· Scenario #4) Turkey creates a Caucasus Federation.

SCENARIO #1

Turkey and Iran reconcile and form a federation.

This scenario assumes the following: Turkey will seek to diversify its energy supplies away from Russia; militant Kurds will continue to threaten stability of both states;the U.S. "containment" for Iran will continue.

*** 1997-2000: Turkey and Iran sign a series of multi-billion dollar energy deals. Turkey emerges as Iran’s bridge to Europe and elsewhere, effectively circumventing the U.S. embargo. The United States reacts sharply. A dynamic and young Welfare Party (RP) leader pushes Erbakan aside. RP wins 1999 elections with a comfortable majority. In Iran two leading Ayatollahs die and more pragmatic leaders come to power.

*** 2001-2004: Kurdish agitation supported by Syria and Iraq, plus U.S. insistence on Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq, bring Iran and Turkey closer. Turkey’s new RP prime minister commits himself to bringing an end to Kurdish insurgency.

European Union (EU) finally rejects Turkey’s full membership bid in 2001. Russia continues to meddle in Caucasus politics. Turkey reacts by developing strong commercial and political relations with Georgia and Azerbaijan, and even begins trade with Armenia.

Turkey's military relationship with Israel is supported by all Turkish governments, secular and Islamic.

*** 2005-2007: Azeri oil begins to flow but the northern route to Novorossysk is under Chechen attack. Azerbaijan diverts much of its oil via Georgia and Iran, and then through Turkey to the Mediterranean.

Turkey and Iran treat each other as "most favored nation" in Caucasus and Central Asia. Ideas circulate to form a "Turkish-Iranian Federation" to cope with the Kurdish threat. This would secure Turkey’s support for Iran’s territorial integrity in the face of rising Azerbaijani demands for reunification.

*** 2008: U.S. containment of Iran continues. Kurds launch attacks from Iraq and destroy gas lines coming from Iran.Turkey retaliates with deep strikes into Iraq. Iraq protests. U.S. is silent. Israeli intelligence informs Turks that Iraqi leadership plans acts of terror against Turkey, and that this is supported by Moscow which is afraid of Turkey’s increasing importance in Eurasia. Turkey passes this information to Iran.

Iran begins to mobilize along its border with Iraq.

*** 2009-2010: Turkey strikes Iraqi targets in northern Iraq. Israeli pilots fly some Turkish planes. Iran sends several divisions into Iraq. Iraq asks Moscow’s help. Russia is indignant but unmoved. When Iraq threatens Turkey with chemical and biological weapons, Iran threatens Iraq with the same. Iran and Turkey declare northern Iraq a zone of "joint influence. "Turkey also hits PKK camps in Syria. Syria suspects Israeli involvement and quickly closes down PKK facilities within its borders.

*** 2011: A Turko-Iranian Federated State, to be implemented over a 15-year period culminating in 2025, is declared. European Union reverses itself and offers full membership despite earlier protest of human rights abuses. EU move is aimed to frustrate Turk-Iran federation, but Turkey rejects EU offer. Turkey stays in NATO but asks U.S. to close all bases and go home.

*** 2012-2020: Crisscrossing gas and oil pipelines through Turkey and Iran bring Caspian/Central Asian oil and gas to world markets.

Turkey's Southeast prospers as a result. Kurds who left decades ago start returning to the Southeast. East-west trade across Central Asia and the Caucasus is booming. ECO is given new life. Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia also apply for membership in an expanded federation.

ENDSTATE: Turkey keeps its ties to Europe and membership in NATO but now it has other economic and strategic interests that focus it increasingly eastward. U.S. influence in the region has declined dramatically.

"One of the unanticipated benefits of this cooperation is a behind-the-scenes relationship developing between Israel and Iran, which takes many directions including intelligence sharing and technology transfer."

SCENARIO #2

Turkey and Israel establish new security order in the Middle East

This scenario assumes the following: Israeli-Turkish military cooperation continues and expands; U.S. politically chooses Greece over Turkey; Turkey is capable of waging defensive war on two fronts.

*** 1997-1999: Sale of Russian antiaircraft missiles to Greek Cypriots continues to create turmoil in Turkey. NATO refuses to become involved. Riots break out in Cyprus, with both communities committing heinous atrocities against the other’s population. Greek-American lobby kicks into action, to cut all U.S. assistance to Turkey.

*** 2000-2002: Turkish military stages a coup, deposes ineffective civilian government, takes the reins of power and almost immediately Turkish F-16s strike at missile sites in Cyprus, with more Turkish troops landing on Cyprus and some Greek islands. Greece responds by staging air strikes against Turkey’s Aegean installations. A kind of "phony war" settles in, with threat of an all-out war but only minor skirmishes in actuality.

U.S. Congress freezes all assistance to Turkey. EU also adopts embargo but some member states observe it erratically. Pro-Turkish sentiment is strong in Germany, Austria and Poland. Israeli lobby in U.S. supports Turkey. NATO is paralyzed due to Turkish-Greek conflict.

*** 2003: Turkish public opinion turns sharply anti-American. All U.S. bases in Turkey are closed. Israel proposes a full military alliance with a secret protocol envisioning joint action against Syria. Turkish military, frustrated with Syrian support for PKK, accepts the arrangement.

*** 2003-2005: PKK terrorists, armed and trained by Greece and operating out of Syria, attack Turkish commercial interests in southern Turkey. Attacks on large southern Turkish cities inflame Turkish public opinion.

*** 2006-2007: Israel instigates an unsuccessful coup against Assad in Damascus. Coup leaders appeal to Turkey from Aleppo. When Turkey moves troops into northern Syria, Greece regards this as an opportunity and strikes against Turkey’s Aegean coast, including military targets in Izmir. Turkey responds by striking at the Greek mainland. Turkish and Greek navies clash in the Aegean. U.S. Congress takes a strongly anti-Turkish line. Greek aircraft support Syrians while Israelis strike Syrians from rear. "In one engagement, a seasoned Israeli pilot downs four Greek fighter-bombers. In one day’s fighting Greece loses 20 aircraft." Greece pulls out of the conflict.

*** 2008-2012: Israel advances on Damascus through Lebanon and from the Golan Heights. Assad’s plane is shot down over eastern Mediterranean by a combined Turkish-Israeli air operation as he flees to Sudan. Turkey and Israel occupy Syria, but a viable post-Assad government cannot be established quickly.

Israel, with full U.S. support, stages a coup to topple Saddam and it succeeds. Iraq splits into three states. Iran occupies eastern section, Turkey the Mosul region, while the western region forms a federation with Syria. Russia accepts the fait accompli.

ENDSTATE: Turkey and Israel dominate the Middle East militarily. After Greece’s defeat, NATO is severely weakened. Iran has to decide if it wants wider relations with Turkey and, in effect, also Israel, or opposes this direction and moves closer to Russia?

SCENARIO #3:

Resurgent Russia Tames Turkey

This scenario assumes the following: Russia will recover militarily and economically; Turkey’s military will intervene in civilian politics; Turkey will actively pursue ambitions in the Caucasus.

*** 1999: Turkish military forces formation of an above-parties government to break the deadlock.

*** 2000: Refah party wins the elections, increasing its votes but the election results are nullified under military pressure because of alleged irregularities.

*** 2002: EU rejects Turkey’s full membership for not having a democratic government. Support for political Islamists increases. U.S. Congress terminates all U.S. assistance to Turkey, despite White House’s objections.

*** 2003-2008: Military leaders delay return of government to civilian control. Economy falters. PKK insurgency becomes more serious.

Russia has taken over Belarus in 1998 and moved against Ukraine. Due to Western aid, Russian economy is doing fine. It has a smaller but much more efficient army. Keeps biological and nuclear warfare capabilities in spite of agreements with the West. Now openly declares its intention to use all military means at its disposal to defend and extend its national interests.

*** 2009-2010: Turkish military continues to support Azerbaijan and Georgia and promises assistance in resisting Russian expansionism.

Russia reacts with Moscow-inspired coups in Caucasus capitals. The region degenerates into chaos. Russia helps to reinvigorate PKK attacks. The oil pipeline from Georgia to Turkey is blown up.

*** 2012: Russia gives an ultimatum to Turkey to stop meddling in the Caucasus, to restore pre-1918 borders and to recognize an independent Kurdistan. Turkey rejects Russian demands.

*** 2013: Russia, threatening to use nuclear and biological weapons, mounts an invasion of Turkey from the Black Sea. Turkish forces lose control of Istanbul, the Marmara region and Black Sea ports. Ankara appeals to UN for armistice while Greece begins occupying Izmir and most of the Aegean coast.

*** 2015-2018: The U.S. and EU declare a belated economic embargo against Russia. China, scared of Russian expansion, supports the embargo. While UN calls for a peace conference in Switzerland, Russia consolidates its position in the Turkish territory.

*** 2020: Big powers agree to the separation of Istanbul and Marmara from the Turkish Republic and complete demilitarization. The U.S. conference also creates an international commission to regulate passage from the Turkish straits. A Kurdish state encompassing 21 eastern Turkish villages is also established.Greece, however, is asked to withdraw from Izmir and the Aegean since no Greeks live there. The truncated Turkish Republic retains Central Anatolia and the Mediterranean coast except for Iskenderun which Russia insists be returned to Syria.

*** 2021-2025: Famine develops among millions of Turkish refugees, now crowding into a severely reduced Turkish territory. The U.S. mounts a major famine relief operation. Turkey watches helplessly as Caucasus and Central Asia get reabsorbed into the revived Russian/Soviet empire.

ENDSTATE: Russia gains unfettered access to the straits. Turkey is reduced in size and strength. Russia is unchallenged in its quest to reincorporate its empire.

SCENARIO #4

Turkey creates a Caucasian Federation

This scenario assumes the following: Russia becomes increasingly weak and incoherent.

*** 1999: Yeltsin dies of heart failure. Alexander Lebed emerges as the new Russian leader but Russia’s fragmentation continues as economy falters.

In Turkey, Erbakan government collapsed in 1997 after his sudden, arbitrary break with Israel. After long bargaining, Erbakan is succeeded by a young, pragmatic RP mayor who forms a coalition by promising stability and an end to corruption.

*** 2000-2002: Caucasian countries, including the northern Caucasus territories within Russia (the ethnic republics as well as the Stavropol and Krasnodar Krays), conclude several cooperation agreements among themselves. Turkish aid agency (TIKA) increases economic assistance.

*** 2003: Lebed is assassinated and Russia falls into disarray. Caucasian nations announce the formation of a Caucasian Federation. Political debate in Turkey revolves around the extent of support to be extended.

*** 2004: Turkey recognizes the Caucasian Federation and promotes it in international fora. West provides humanitarian aid, if not full recognition.

*** 2005-2006: Russian military mounts an ill-organized neo-imperialist offensive against Chechnya, Dagestan and Georgia, but is defeated. Turkey provides military aid and concludes in 2006 a treaty with Caucasian Federation to provide arms for ten years in return for increased revenues from oil pipelines carrying Azeri and Central Asian crude oil to the Mediterranean.

*** 2008: After a long period of vacillation, U.S. and major European nations reconcile themselves to the de facto breakup of the Russian Federation, but insist it remain formally in existence along the analogy of the Holy Roman Empire.

*** 2010-2020: The Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization flourishes with participation of Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania.Meanwhile in Central Asia, a "Turanian Federation" has emerged in response to the confusion in Russia, and with covert support of China. Growing trade and east-west transportation leads to formation of a tripartite economic association: Turkey, Caucasian Federation, Central Asian [Turanian] Association, with support from China.

ENDSTATE: The world recognizes that a new international power emerged with Turkey and Turkic states as predominant members; in effect, a new "Turkish Empire" but based on free association and principles of economic activity. With a growing population of more than 225 million, the Turkish Federation greatly exceeds the population of what remains of the troubled Russian Federation.