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Voice of America, 97-12-05

Voice of America: Selected Articles Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>


CONTENTS

  • [01] CLINTON / E-U (S) BY DAVID GOLLUST (WHITE HOUSE)
  • [02] EURO STOCKS (S-ONLY) BY PAUL FRANCUCH (LONDON)
  • [03] FRIDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)
  • [04] NY ECON WRAP (L ONLY) BY JOE CHAPMAN (NEW YORK)
  • [05] SERBIA POL (L ONLY) BY ART CHIMES (BELGRADE)
  • [06] TURKEY / KURDS (L-ONLY) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)
  • [07] YEARENDER: U-S FOREIGN POLICY (PART #1) BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)
  • [08] YEARENDER: U-S FOREIGN POLICY (PART#2) BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)
  • [09] YEARENDER: U-S FOREIGN POLICY (PART#3) BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)

  • [01] CLINTON / E-U (S) BY DAVID GOLLUST (WHITE HOUSE)

    DATE=12/5/97
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-223726
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: PRESIDENT CLINTON IS EXPRESSING MEASURED OPTIMISM ABOUT CHANCES FOR SUCCESS AT THE KYOTO CONFERENCE ON GLOBAL WARMING. HE DISCUSSED THE ISSUE TODAY (FRIDAY) WITH SENIOR OFFICIALS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. V-O-A'S DAVID GOLLUST HAS DETAILS FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

    TEXT: THE GLOBAL WARMING ISSUE FIGURED HEAVILY IN THE SEMI-ANNUAL U-S / E-U SUMMIT, WITH THE TWO SIDES HAVING COMPETING TREATY PROPROSALS ON THE TABLE AT THE KYOTO CONFERENCE.

    IN COMMENTS AS HE BEGAN THE MEETING WITH EUROPEAN COMMISSION PRESIDENT JACQUES SANTER AND LUXEMBOURG PRIME MINISTER JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER -- THE CURRENT E-U PRESIDENT -- MR. CLINTON SAID HE BELEIVES AN AGREEMENT IS STILL WITHIN REACH:

    ///CLINTON ACTUALITY///

    I THINK THAT THE CHANCES THAT WE CAN GET AN AGREEMENT ARE REASONABLY GOOD, IF EVERYBODY THERE REALLY WANTS AN AGREEMENT, AND WE WANT TO SEE COUNTRIES BOUND TO TARGETS WHICH WILL LEAD US TO REDUCED GREEN-HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. THAT'S THE REAL TEST.

    ///END ACT//

    VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE WILL ADDRESS THE KYOTO CONFERENCE MONDAY ON THE U-S PROPOSAL, WHICH PROPOSES LESS SEVERE CUTS IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS THAN THAT OF THE E-U, BUT WHICH OFFICIALS HERE INSIST STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF ACTUALLY BEING THE BASIS FOR A TREATY. (SIGNED)
    NEB/DAG/RRM
    05-Dec-97 12:00 PM EST (1700 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [02] EURO STOCKS (S-ONLY) BY PAUL FRANCUCH (LONDON)

    DATE=12/5/97
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-223731
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: MOST STOCK MARKETS OF WESTERN EUROPE ENDED THE WEEK ON THE "UP" SIDE. PAUL FRANCUCH PROVIDES THE CLOSING NUMBERS FROM OUR OFFICES IN LONDON.

    TEXT: POSITIVE NEWS ON U-S EMPLOYMENT -- WHICH SOMETIMES ALARMS STOCK MARKETS, SPREADING FEARS OF INFLATION AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES -- DID NOT REALLY HAVE MUCH IMPACT HERE IN EUROPE FRIDAY. THE NEWS INITIALLY CAUSED SOME DECLINES, BUT MOST MARKETS QUICKLY REBOUNDED.

    ONLY THE PARIS "CAC 40" STOCK INDEX CLOSED LOWER. IT WAS DOWN JUST OVER FOUR POINTS. BUT THE FRANKFURT "DAX 30" INDEX CLOSED THE WEEK WITH A 30-POINT GAIN AND THE LONDON "FINANCIAL TIMES" 100 WAS UP ALMOST 61 POINTS.

    THE U-S JOB FIGURES HELPED BOOST THE DOLLAR AGAINST BOTH THE GERMAN MARK AND BRITISH POUND.

    BUT GOLD PRICES REMAINED SUBDUED, LARGELY FOLLOWING NEWS OF A MAJOR SALE FROM THE RESERVES OF ARGENTINA'S CENTRAL BANK. THE CLOSING GOLD FIX IN LONDON WAS 288-DOLLARS-FIVE CENTS AN OUNCE. (SIGNED)
    NEB/PCF/SP
    05-Dec-97 1:28 PM EST (1828 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [03] FRIDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=12/05/97
    TYPE=U-S EDITORIAL DIGEST
    NUMBER=6-10475
    TELEPHONE=619-3335
    EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS
    CONTENT=
    /// EDITORS, PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS PERISHABLE MATERIAL AND BECOMES DATED AFTER 10 P-M E-S-T TODAY!! ///

    INTRO: PRESIDENT CLINTON 'S FIRST DIALOGUE ON RACE IS A POPULAR TOPIC IN FRIDAY'S EDITORIALS, ALONG WITH HUNGER IN IRAQ AND POSSIBLE MISMANAGEMENT OF REVENUE FROM U-N ALLOWED OIL EXPORTS.

    OTHER TOPICS IN EDITORIAL COLUMNS TODAY INCLUDE: BAILING OUT SOUTH KOREA, THE WINNIE MADIKIZELA-MANDELA TESTIMONY IN SOUTH AFRICA, A HISTORIC DIVORCE SETTLEMENT IN CONNECTICUT, AND A SUPPOSED MERCY KILLING IN CANADA. NOW, WE CALL ON _________________FOR A CLOSER LOOK AT TODAY'S U-S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

    TEXT: PRESIDENT CLINTON WENT TO AKRON, OHIO, ON WEDNESDAY, FOR A TOWN MEETING ON THE SUBJECT OF RACE RELATIONS, WHICH HE HOPES TO IMPROVE DURING THE REMAINDER OF HIS PRESIDENCY. TOWARD THAT END HE HAD ESTABLISHED A PRESIDENTIAL COMMISSION TO STUDY THE QUESTION EARLIER THIS YEAR. SEVERAL PAPERS ARE COMMENTING ON HOW THE AKRON MEETING WENT, INCLUDING "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL", WHICH WROTE, IN PART:

    VOICE: PRESIDENT CLINTON'S NATIONAL DISCUSSION ON RACE DIDN'T GET OFF TO AN ENCOURAGING START. MAINLY THERE DIDN'T SEEM TO BE AS MANY PEOPLE AS THE PRESIDENT HAD HOPED WHO WANTED TO GET INTO A 'FRANK' ARGUMENT OVER THE SUBJECT. MAYBE THERE'S A LESSON IN THAT ALONE. FROM THE START, THE PRESIDENT'S SIDE OF THIS 'DIALOGUE' SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN SPOILING FOR A FIGHT (ENCOURAGING CONFLICT). FOR THE TROUBLE OF SHOWING UP FOR THIS EVENT, MRS. ABIGAIL THERNSTROM, A SCHOLAR WHO HAS WRITTEN SERIOUS CRITIQUES OF WHAT AFFIRMATIVE ACTION HAS BECOME, FOUND HERSELF BEING HECTORED ON CAMERA ABOUT RACE BY NONE OTHER THAN THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES. [OPT] LOOMING OVER HER, MR. CLINTON ASKED MRS. THERNSTROM: 'ABIGAIL, DO YOU FAVOR THE UNITED STATES ARMY ABOLISHING THE AFFIRMATIVE ACTION PROGRAM THAT PRODUCED COLIN POWELL? YES OR NO?' BEFORE SHE HAD A CHANCE TO FULLY ANSWER ... MR. CLINTON REPEATED IT, ADDING AGAIN, "'YES OR NO?' LEAVING ASIDE THE PREPOSTEROUS 'YES OR NO,' THIS IS A DECEITFUL WAY TO HAVE POSED THIS QUESTION. [END OPT] MR. CLINTON'S PERFORMANCE IN AKRON IS BUT THE LATEST EXAMPLE OF WHY IT'S SO DIFFICULT TO HAVE A SERIOUS PUBLIC DEBATE ON THIS SUBJECT.

    [OPT]

    TEXT: THE SUN" IN BALTIMORE IS ALSO CRITICAL OF THE SESSION IN AKRON, OHIO

    VOICE: [OPT] THE ENORMITY OF THE RACE PROBLEM IN AMERICA IS REFLECTED IN THE AIMLESSNESS OF PRESIDENT CLINTON'S INITIATIVE TO TALK ABOUT IT. SIX MONTHS AFTER APPOINTING AN ADVISORY COMMISSION ON RACE THAT HAS MOSTLY SPUN ITS WHEELS, (BEEN INEFFECTIVE) MR. CLINTON HELD THE FIRST TOWN HALL MEETING. WHILE THE PRESIDENT CANNOT BE FAULTED FOR WANTING TO MARK THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE EVENT BY PARTICIPATING IN THE FORUM, PERHAPS IT WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER HAD HE STAYED HOME. PANELISTS CHOSE THEIR WORDS VERY CAREFULLY, NOT WANTING TO EXHIBIT ANY OF THE BIAS THAT MUST COME OUT AND BE DEALT WITH IF RACIAL PROGRESS IS TO BE MADE. IN MOST CASES, MR. CLINTON WAS PREACHING TO THE CHOIR. THERE WAS VERY LITTLE DISSENT.

    TEXT: "THE NEW YORK TIMES" COMMENTS THAT: "REMAINING TOWN MEETINGS COULD BE MORE FRUITFUL IF THEY ARE BETTER PLANNED"

    [END OPT]

    TURNING TO THE PLIGHT OF THE WOMEN AND CHILDREN OF IRAQ AND HOW THE WORLD OIL EMBARGO, ORDERED AFTER THE GULF WAR, IS IMPACTING THEM, WE READ IN "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES:"

    VOICE: IN AN ALLEGATION IMPOSSIBLE TO VERIFY, BAGHDAD CLAIMS THAT ONE MILLION IRAQIS HAVE DIED BECAUSE OF THE SANCTIONS. IT WAS TO EASE THE SUFFERING OF THE INNOCENT THAT THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL AGREED A YEAR AGO TO LET IRAQ RESUME LIMITED OIL SALES, WITH MOST OF THE REVENUE TO GO INTO A U-N-MANAGED FUND TO PAY FOR IMPORTED FOOD AND MEDICINE. [OPT] NEXT MONTH SECRETARY-GENERAL KOFI ANNAN IS EXPECTED TO PRESENT TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL A PLAN TO INCREASE ALLOWABLE SALES, AND SO OPEN THE WAY TO LARGER HUMANITARIAN IMPORTS. THIS CLEARLY SEEMS THE DECENT THING TO DO. [END OPT] THE TROUBLE IS THAT IRAQ HAS BEEN LESS THAN DILIGENT IN MEETING ITS RESPONSIBILITIES UNDER THE DEAL. U-N OFFICIALS SAY ONLY ABOUT FIVE PERCENT OF THE GOODS THAT BAGHDAD WAS ALLOWED TO IMPORT DURING THE LAST SIX MONTHS HAS SO FAR ARRIVED IN IRAQ. THIS HARDLY BESPEAKS A BURNING SENSE OF HUMANITARIAN URGENCY IN THE MINDS OF IRAQ'S LEADERS.

    TEXT: REGARDING THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC BAILOUT OF SOUTH KOREA, "THE SUN" IN BALTIMOR SAYS:

    VOICE: NEVER HAS THE I-M-F (INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND) SHOWN ITS VALUE TO THE UNITED STATES AS IN ITS EFFORTS AT STABILIZING AN ASIA SUFFERING CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS, BANK FAILURES AND BURST REAL ESTATE BUBBLES RESULTING FROM A BOOM PSYCHOLOGY AND TOO-COZY RELATIONS BETWEEN OFFICIALDOM AND BUSINESS. [OPT] THE ASIAN TURMOIL IS ALREADY CURTAILING THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. DEMAND IN ASIA FOR AMERICAN HIGH TECH PRODUCTS IS DOWN WHILE ASIAN PRODUCTS, THANKS TO DEVALUED CURRENCIES, COST LESS .[END OPT] CONTAINING THE DAMAGE IS IN THE INTEREST OF ALL TRADING NATIONS.

    TEXT: WINNIE MADIKIZELA-MANDELA'S HEARING BEFORE SOUTH AFRICA'S TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION COMMISSION, IN WHICH SHE HAS BEEN ACCUSED OF ORDERING TORTURE, MURDER AND KIDNAPPING, INSPIRES "THE NEW YORK TIMES" TO EXCLAIM:

    VOICE: [OPT] WHILE VIRTUALLY EVERY VICTIM'S STATEMENT TO THE COMMISSION HAS BEEN HEARTBREAKING, [END OPT] THERE IS SPECIAL SORROW IN CREDIBLE TESTIMONY THAT A HERO OF THE ANTI-APARTHEID STRUGGLE USED HER POWER AGAINST HER OWN PEOPLE. [OPT] MRS. MANDIKIZELA-MANDELA'S CASE IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT BECAUSE SHE IS STILL AN AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS OFFICIAL WITH A WIDE FOLLOWING, (AND) A CANDIDATE FOR THE PARTY'S DEPUTY PRESIDENCY. HER KIDNAPPING CONVICTION SHOULD HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP HER OFF THE BALLOT, BUT THE HEARING SHOULD REMOVE ALL DOUBT. [END OPT]

    TEXT: IN ANOTHER EDITORIAL, "THE NEW YORK TIMES" TAKES NOTE OF A PRECEDENT-SETTING CONNECTICUT DIVORCE DECREE, IN WHICH A JUDGE HAS RULED THAT LORNA WENDT, FORMER WIFE OF WEALTHY GENERAL ELECTRIC OFFICIAL GARY WENDT, IS ENTITLED TO ABOUT ONE FIFTH OF HIS TOTAL WEALTH.

    VOICE: THE CASE RAISES THE QUESTION OF WHAT A MARITAL PARTNERSHIP MEANS. THE WENDS REPRESENT A NEW CORPORATE ELITE THAT NOW ENJOYS A LEVEL OF PERSONAL WEALTH UNIMAGINABLE IN DECADES PAST, MUCH OF IT IN STOCK OPTIONS, PENSIONS AND OTHER FORMS OF DEFERRED COMPENSATION. MR. WENDT SIMPLY ARGUED THAT MRS. WENDT WAS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR HIS BUSINESS SUCCESS. YET HER PRESENCE MUST HAVE AFFECTED HIS LIFE AND BUSINESS PERFORMANCE TO SOME DEGREE. THE JUDGE'S AWARD RECOGNIZES THAT CONTRIBUTION.

    [OPT]

    TEXT: REGARDING THE PULLOUT OF U-N PEACEKEEPERS FROM HAITI, "NEWSDAY" ON LONG ISLAND DEMONSTRATES SKEPTICISM IN ITS HEADLINE: "HAITI A FOREIGN-POLICY SUCCESS? BETTER LOOK AGAIN."

    VOICE: WHAT CAN YOU SAY ABOUT A DESPERATELY POOR NATION SO MISMANAGED THAT IT CANNOT EVEN SPEND ONE BILLION DOLLARS IN FOREIGN AID BECAUSE IT HAS NO FUNCTIONING GOVERNMENT? THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IS STILL CALLING THAT CARIBBEAN NATION A MAJOR U-S FOREIGN-POLICY SUCCESS. IT NEEDS TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. TWO WEEKS AGO, THE U-S COAST GUARD INTERCEPTED A LEAKY FISHING BOAT JUST OFF MIAMI, LOADED TO THE GUNWALES WITH 417 HAITIANS. THOSE BOAT PEOPLE, LIKE STRAWS IN THE WIND BEFORE A COMING STORM, PRESAGE A CRISIS UNLESS THE WHITE HOUSE AND ITS PARTNERS AT THE UNITED NATIONS TAKE NOTE AND ACT BEFORE HAITI'S CIVIL DISHEVELMENT TURNS AGAIN INTO CIVIL WAR.

    [END OPT]

    TEXT: AND LASTLY IS THE CASE OF A FARMER IN (SASKATCHEWAN) CANADA WHO KILLED HIS DAUGHTER WHO HAD BEEN SUFFERING FROM SEVERE CEREBRAL PALSY AND CONSTANT PAIN. HE WAS CONVICTED OF SECOND-DEGREE MURDER AND SENTENCED TO 25 YEARS IN PRISON, BUT THIS WEEK A USTICE REDUCED THE SENTENCE TO ONE YEAR IN JAIL AND ANOTHER YEAR ON PROBATION. JUSTICE TED NOBLE WROTE IN HIS RULING THAT FARMER ROBERT LATIMER, WHO PIPED EXHAUST FUMES INTO A TRUCK CAB IN THE KILLING, WAS MOTIVATED BY LOVE AND COMPASSION . SAYS "THE BOSTON GLOBE" :

    VOICE: WE CANNOT TELL WHAT WAS IN ROBERT'S HEART WHEN HE CONNECTED THE HOSE THAT WOULD CAUSE HIS DAUGHTER'S DEATH. THE DOOR THAT NOBLE HAS OPENED LEADS TO A BOTTOMLESS PIT.

    TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF EDITORIALS FROM FRIDAY'S U-S PRESS. NEB/ANG/DOH/
    05-Dec-97 11:22 AM EST (1622 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [04] NY ECON WRAP (L ONLY) BY JOE CHAPMAN (NEW YORK)

    DATE=12/5/97
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-233744
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: STOCK PRICES IN NEW YORK CLOSED UP MORE THAN ONE PERCENT TODAY (FRIDAY) -- PUSHING ASIDE CONCERNS ABOUT A REPORT THAT U-S PAYROLLS GREW MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED IN NOVEMBER. V-O-A'S JOE CHAPMAN REPORTS FROM NEW YORK.

    TEXT: DESPITE CONCERNS ABOUT A TIGHTER U-S JOB MARKET, U-S STOCK PRICES MOVED SHARPLY HIGHER. THE WIDELY FOLLOWED DOW-JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE CLOSED UP 99 POINTS AT EIGHT-THOUSAND-149 WHILE THE MORE REPRESENTATIVE S-AND-P 500 CLOSED UP 11 POINTS AT 984. FOR THE WEEK, THE DOW-JONES IINDUSTRIALS WERE UP 326 POINTS.

    DAVID JONES, A SENIOR WALL STREET ANALYST, SAYS THE PAYROLL GROWTH WAS ABOUT TWICE AS HIGH AS MOST ESTIMATES.

    ///JONES ACT///

    I WAS GUESSING AROUND 200-THOUSAND IN TERMS OF THAT PAYROLL INCREASE. THAT ACTUAL 404-THOUSAND FIGURE WAS REALLY A BELL RINGER (ATTENTION GETTER) AND I WOULD ADD, QUICKLY, SO WERE THE REST OF THE NUMBERS -- A FOUR-POINT-SIX PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SHOWING TIGHT LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS AND AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS AT FOUR-POINT-ONE PERCENT (GROWTH). THAT REPRESENTS AN ACCELERATION IN WAGE GROWTH. ACROSS THE BOARD. THOSE NUMBERS WERE STRONG.

    ///END ACT///

    ANALYSTS SAY THE MARKET AVOIDED A SELLOFF BECAUSE INVESTORS DO NOT BELIEVE THE CENTRAL BANK WILL RAISE INTEREST RATES.

    ///REST OPT///

    ECONOMISTS SAY THE TIGHT U-S JOB MARKET IS INDICATED BY THE 404-THOUSAND NEW JOBS AND BY A FOUR-POINT-SIX PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, THE LOWEST IN 24 YEARS. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS HAVE INCREASED FOUR-POINT-ONE PERCENT DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS AND ANOTHER REPORT SHOWS THAT FACTORY ORDERS HAVE NOW INCREASED FOR FIVE STRAIGHT MONTHS.

    ANALYST DAVID JONES OF THE AUBREY LANSTON INVESTMENT FIRM SAYS THE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS IN ASIA ARE AN INCENTIVE FOR THE CENTRAL BANK TO LEAVE INTEREST RATES UNTOUCHED.

    ///JONES ACT///

    THE UNCERTAINTY CREATED BY THE ASIA FINANCIAL UNREST WILL REALLY LEAVE THE FED (CENTRAL BANK) ON HOLD FOR THE INDEFINITE FUTURE. I THINK I SEE UNCHANGED POLICY WELL INTO NEXT YEAR.

    ///END ACT///

    WALL STREET ANALYSTS SAY INVESTORS ENGAGED IN TRADITIONAL END OF THE YEAR BUYING ALSO HELPED PUSH STOCK PRICES HIGHER DESPITE THE SURPLUS OF GOOD ECONOMIC NEWS WHICH RAISES FEARS OF INFLATION.

    STRONG PRICE GAINS IN THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR, WHICH HAD BEEN LAGGING THIS WEEK, ALSO HELPED PUSH PRICES ON WALL STREET HIGHER. (SIGNED) NEB/NY/JMC/LSF/RRM
    05-Dec-97 4:48 PM EST (2148 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [05] SERBIA POL (L ONLY) BY ART CHIMES (BELGRADE)

    DATE=12/5/97
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-223732
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: SERBIAN VOTERS GO TO THE POLLS AGAIN ON SUNDAY TO ELECT A PRESIDENT -- THEIR SECOND ATTEMPT IN TWO MONTHS. V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ART CHIMES IS IN BELGRADE, WHERE HE REPORTS THE ELECTION IS NOT SPARKING A LOT OF VOTER INTEREST.

    TEXT: VOTING IS SUPPOSED TO BE GOOD FOR DEMOCRACY, BUT SERBIAN VOTERS MAY BE FED-UP WITH TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING. AFTER INCONCLUSIVE ELECTIONS IN OCTOBER, WHEN TURNOUT WAS JUST UNDER THE 50-PERCENT MINIMUM (EDS: REQUIRED FOR A VALID ELECTION), SERBIAN VOTERS ARE AGAIN BEING ASKED TO GO TO THE POLLS TO ELECT A PRESIDENT. MANY OF THEM SEEM TO BE SAYING, "NO THANKS."

    ANALYSTS SAY A CONTINUING OPPOSITION BOYCOTT, A LETHARGIC CAMPAIGN, AND VOTER FATIGUE MAY AGAIN KEEP TURNOUT UNDER 50-PERCENT.

    VOTERS HAVE THREE MAIN CHOICES. THE RULING SOCIALIST PARTY CANDIDATE IS FOREIGN MINISTER MILAN MILUTINOVIC, WIDELY SEEN AS A STAND-IN FOR YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC. ULTRANATIONALIST VOJISLAV SESELJ HEADS THE RADICAL PARTY TICKET. VUK DRASKOVIC IS REPRESENTING THE SERBIAN RENEWAL MOVEMENT, ONE OF THE PARTIES IN THE NOW-DEFUNCT OPPOSITION COALITION CALLED "ZAJEDNO," OR "TOGETHER".

    POLITICAL ANALYST AND JOURNALIST NENAD STEFANOVIC, OF THE (EDS: WEEKLY) MAGAZINE "VREME," SAYS PEOPLE ARE EXHAUSTED FROM SERBIA'S VARIOUS ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CRISES, AND THEY DON'T SEE ANY DRAMATIC CHANGE EMERGING FROM THE ELECTION.

    /// STEFANOVIC ACT. ///

    I ALSO THINK IT'S VERY WIDESPREAD OPINION AMONG THE PEOPLE THAT EVEN IF (RADICAL PARTY CANDIDATE) SESELJ IS ABLE TO WIN, THAT THE SOCIALISTS WILL NOT MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR HIM TO BE PRESIDENT.

    // BEGIN OPT //

    LAST TIME SESELJ COMPLAINED THAT HE WON, BUT HE DIDN'T PROTEST SO MUCH AFTER FINAL RESULTS WERE ANNOUNCED. THIS TIME I ACTUALLY THINK THE SOCIALISTS HAVE A MECHANISM TO PREVENT HIS VICTORY.

    //END OPT// /// END ACT ///

    THAT CYNICISM IS WIDESPREAD. MANY BELIEVE THAT SERBIA'S KOSOVO PROVINCE, WITH ITS MAJORITY OF MOSTLY NON-VOTING ETHNIC ALBANIANS, IS CUSTOM-MADE FOR WIDESPREAD VOTER FRAUD.

    A TOP AIDE TO CANDIDATE VUK DRASKOVIC ACKNOWLEDGES IT'S HARD TO CONVINCE VOTERS TO GO TO THE POLLS. CAMPAIGN MANAGER ANDELKO TRPKOVIC ADMITS MANY VOTERS DOUBT THE ELECTIONS WILL CHANGE ANYTHING.

    /// TRPKOVIC ACT. -- (SERBIAN; ESTABLISH AND FADE) ///

    "SO IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES," HE SAYS, "IT'S NORMAL THE VOTERS WILL BE APATHETIC. WE HAVE TO CONVINCE THEM THAT EVERY VOTE COUNTS." "PRE-ELECTION SURVEYS," HE SAYS, "ARE NOT CONSIDERED VERY RELIABLE HERE."

    RECENT SURVEYS AGREE MR. SESELJ WILL PROBABLY BE THE TOP VOTE-GETTER, BUT THEY INDICATE THE TURNOUT MAY AGAIN FAIL TO REACH THE 50-PERCENT MINIMUM.

    //REST OPT//

    THAT SOUNDS RIGHT TO PROFESSOR VLADIMIR GOATI, OF THE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES IN BELGRADE, WHO PREDICTS THIS ELECTION, LIKE THE ONE BEFORE IT, WILL END IN A STALEMATE.

    /// GOATI ACT ///

    AND AFTER THAT, I BELIEVE THAT SOCIALIST PARTY WILL CHANGE THE ELECTION ELECTORAL LAW FOR PRESIDENT, AND MAYBE -- MAYBE -- IN THE FUTURE, THEY WILL CHANGE THE CONDITION (OF VOTING). MAYBE.

    /// END ACT ///

    WHETHER THE ELECTION LAW IS CHANGED OR NOT, PROFESSOR GOATI NOTES THAT DESPITE THE POLITICAL IMPASSE, THE GOVERNMENT HERE CONTINUES TO FUNCTION. (SIGNED)
    NEB/ART/PCF
    05-Dec-97 2:03 PM EST (1903 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [06] TURKEY / KURDS (L-ONLY) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

    DATE=12/5/97
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-223730
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: THOUSANDS OF TURKISH TROOPS, BACKED BY TANKS AND FIGHTER JETS, HAVE LAUNCHED A CROSS-BORDER OPERATION IN NORTHERN IRAQ AGAINST REBELS OF THE KURDISTAN WORKERS PARTY -- THE "P-K-K." BUT AMBERIN ZAMAN REPORTS FROM ANKARA, TURKISH TROOPS ARE BEING BACKED BY MILITIA ATTACHED TO ONE OF THE MAIN IRAQI KURDISH FACTIONS IN THE WESTERN PROTECTIVE ENCLAVE -- THE KURDISTAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY, OR "K-D-P."

    TEXT: TURKISH TELEVISION REPORTS SAY SOME 20-THOUSAND TURKISH TROOPS AND EIGHT-THOUSAND K-D-P MILITIA ARE TAKING PART IN THE OFFENSIVE AGAINST THE TURKISH KURD REBELS.

    THE OPERATION -- THE FOURTH OF ITS KIND SO FAR THIS YEAR -- IS AIMED AT UPROOTING THE P-K-K FROM THEIR NUMEROUS BASES IN THE MOUNTAINS SEPARATING TURKEY FROM IRAQ.

    THE TURKISH KURD REBELS HAVE BEEN WAGING A 13-YEAR-LONG ARMED CAMPAIGN TO SET UP AN INDEPENDENT KURDISH STATE IN TURKEY'S MAINLY-KURDISH SOUTHEAST REGION. NEARLY 30-THOUSAND PEOPLE HAVE DIED IN THE CONFLICT.

    THE P-K-K HAS BEEN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN NORTHERN IRAQ EVER SINCE THE END OF THE GULF WAR WHEN THE ALLIES, LED BY THE UNITED STATES, ESTABLISHED A NO-FLY ZONE OVER THE REGION TO PROTECT THE IRAQI KURDS FROM POSSIBLE ATTACK BY TROOPS OF IRAQI PRESIDENT, SADDAM HUSSEIN.

    ANALYSTS SAY THE AUTHORITIES OF THE ENCLAVE IN QUESTION HAVE MADE IT POSSIBLE FOR GROUPS LIKE THE P-K-K TO OPERATE FREELY OUT OF NORTHERN IRAQ. THEY ADD THE SUCCESSIVE TURKISH MILITARY INCURSIONS INTO NORTHERN IRAQ OVER THE PAST YEARS HAVE FAILED TO DRIVE THE P-K-K OUT FOR GOOD. (SIGNED)
    NEB/AZ/JWH
    05-Dec-97 12:58 PM EST (1758 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [07] YEARENDER: U-S FOREIGN POLICY (PART #1) BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=12/4/97
    TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
    NUMBER=5-38306
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: IT IS REPEATEDLY SAID THE UNITED STATES IS THE ONLY REMAINING SUPERPOWER. BUT HOW MUCH POWER IS THAT AND HOW SHOULD IT BE USED? IN 1997, THE UNITED STATES ASSERTED LEADERSHIP IN MANY AREAS BUT WAS REBUFFED BY ITS ALLIES IN RESPONDING TO IRAQI PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSSEIN . IN THE FIRST OF THREE SCRIPTS, V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS THE VIEWS OF LEADING ANALYSTS ON CURRENT U-S FOREIGN POLICY.

    TEXT: DURING THE COLD WAR, U-S FOREIGN POLICY HAD A CLEAR MISSION, DESPITE MUCH DEBATE OVER DETAILS. WITH THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION, U-S AIMS AND GOALS ABROAD ARE NOT SO EASILY DEFINED.

    NEVER HAS THE UNITED STATES EXERCISED SUCH POWER IN THE WORLD, SAY OBSERVERS, BUT NEVER HAS IT BEEN MORE PERPLEXED ABOUT HOW TO USE THAT POWER.

    BRADFORD MCGUINN, A LECTURER ON FOREIGN POLICY AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY, SAYS THIS CONFUSION MAKES DECISIVE ACTION MORE DIFFICULT:

    // MCGUINN ACT //

    NOW, PERHAPS AS MUCH AS DURING THE COLD WAR, OUR INTERESTS AND OUR DAILY LIFE IN THIS COUNTRY ARE DEPENDENT ON GLOBALIZATION AND THE STABILITY OF VARIOUS PARTS OF THE WORLD, AND OUR DOMESTIC INTERESTS ARE TRULY INTERNATIONAL ONES. YET IN TERMS OF THE POLITICAL CULTURE, THERE IS SOMETHING OF A BACKLASH AGAINST THAT REALITY, ALMOST AN INDIFFERENCE TOWARD FOCUSING ON OTHER AREAS OF THE WORLD OR THE DISCIPLINE THAT IS REQUIRED TO DEVELOP STRATEGIES TO PURSUE INTERESTS IN PLACES OTHER THAN THE UNITED STATES ITSELF.

    // END ACT //

    MR. MCGUINN ADDS THAT IN TYPICALLY PRAGMATIC FASHION, THE UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO BE ENGAGED WITH THE WORLD, EVEN IF THERE IS NO UNDERLYING STRATEGY. HE BELIEVES A POLICY IS EMERGING FROM PRACTICE:

    // MCGUINN ACT //

    I THINK, FOR EXAMPLE WITHIN THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION THERE HAS BEEN AN EVOLUTION IN THE THINKING OF THE INDIVIDUALS INVOLVED, MANY OF WHOM HAD IN THE PAST A MORE ISOLATIONIST VIEWPOINT OR A MORE DOVISH PERSPECTIVE, BUT WHO NOW PERHAPS AS A RESULT OF OF COMMERCIAL INTERESTS - AND THEY ARE SEEING THE DOMESTIC POLITICAL PAYOFF FOR THOSE COMMERCIAL INTERESTS - ARE ADVOCATING A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND ASSERTIVE U-S FOREIGN POLICY, IN FACT, THAN REPUBLICANS ARE, MANY OF WHOM HAVE MOVED IN THE DIRECTION OF ISOLATIONISM.

    // END ACT //

    BUT DIMITRI SIMES, PRESIDENT OF THE NIXON CENTER FOR PEACE AND FREEDOM, THINKS U-S POLICY IS OVERLY ASSERTIVE WITH CONSEQUENCES TO FOLLOW. HE SAYS SOME POLICY MAKERS AND PUNDITS TALK TOO READILY OF AMERICA'S SUPER POWER STATUS:

    // SIMES ACT //

    THEY LIKE THIS SITUATION A BIT TOO MUCH AND BEGAN TAKING THIS TEMPORARY EPISODE IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AS THE BEGINNING OF A LASTING TREND; NAMELY, AS THE ONLY SUPERPOWER, THE UNITED STATES COULD DO WHATEVER ANYWHERE, AND WE DEVELOPED A PROPENSITY FOR GIVING EVERYBODY LECTURES ON NOT JUST HOW THEY SHOULD CONDUCT THEIR FOREIGN POLICY BUT THEIR DOMESTIC AFFAIRS.

    // END ACT //

    SOME OF THESE LECTURES MAY BE UNWELCOME BUT NECESSARY, SAYS BRADFORD MCGUINN. FOR EXAMPLE, ASIAN COUNTRIES IN ECONOMIC TROUBLE GET RELIEF FROM THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND BUT WITH CONDITIONS ATTACHED; NAMELY, REFORMS CONSISTENT WTH THE AMERICAN AGENDA. THAT MAY BE THE PROPER MEDICINE, SAYS MR. MCGUINN, BUT RECIPIENTS FIND IT HARD TO SWALLOW AND RESENT THE HELPING HAND. (SIGNED)
    NEB/PT
    04-Dec-97 8:43 PM EST (0143 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [08] YEARENDER: U-S FOREIGN POLICY (PART#2) BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=12/4/97
    TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
    NUMBER=5-38307
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: IN TRYING TO FORGE A POST COLD WAR FOREIGN POLICY, THE UNITED STATES MUST DEAL WITH A VARIETY OF NATIONS, SOME FRIENDLY, SOME LESS SO. THE CONFLICT OVER IRAQ SHOWED U-S INTERESTS AND THOSE OF ITS ALLIES CAN SHARPLY DIFFER. IN THE SECOND OF THREE SCRIPTS, V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS THE VIEWS OF LEADING ANALYSTS ON HOW THE UNITED STATES CAN GAIN SUPPORT FOR ITS POLICIES ABROAD.

    TEXT: THE CRISIS OVER IRAQ OPENED A BREACH BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES, WHO OBJECTED TO AMERICANS TAKING ACTION ON THEIR OWN AND THREATENING A MILITARY STRIKE.

    DIMITRI SIMES, PRESIDENT OF THE NIXON CENTER FOR PEACE AND FREEDOM, SAYS THE UNITED STATES MAY BE TOO CONFIDENT OF ITS SUPER POWER STATUS:

    // SIMES ACT //

    THERE IS A MOMENT OF GLORY. THERE IS A MOMENT OF EUPHORIA. AND THEN THERE IS A RESPONSE. AND THEN UNLESS YOU ARE EXTREMELY CAREFUL, OTHER NATIONS BEGIN TO UNITE AGAINST YOU - AT FIRST GENTLY, PARTICULARLY IF YOU ARE BIG AND STRONG AND RELATIVELY BENIGN, AS THE UNITED STATES OBVIOUSLY IS. THEN NOT SO GENTLE, AND WHAT WE HAVE DISCOVERED IN THE CASE OF THIS CRISIS WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF OUR BRITISH FRIENDS, VERY FEW IMPORTANT NATIONS WERE PREPARED TO SUPPORT THE AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE.

    // END ACT //

    MR. SIMES SAYS IF THE UNITED STATES CANNOT GET BACKING AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN, ONE OF THE WORLD'S LEAST POPULAR FIGURES, HOW CAN IT EXPECT ALLIED AGREEMENT ON OTHER ISSUES?

    BUT LEADERSHIP CAN BRING ALLIES ALONG, SAYS STEVE YETIV, A POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY IN VIRGINA. OTHER COUNTRIES AWAIT THE SIGNAL FROM THE SUPERPOWER. IF IT FALTERS, SO DO THEY:

    // YETIV ACT //

    THE PREDICAMENT THE UNITED STATES FACES WITH ITS ALLIES IS WHAT IS CALLED THE "FREE RIDER PROBLEM," AND THAT IS THAT WHEN THERE IS ONE MAJOR COUNTRY WHICH OTHERS KNOW WILL HAVE TO TAKE ACTION EVENTUALLY AND MAY DO SO ON ITS OWN, THEN OTHER COUNTRIES CAN FREE RIDE. THEY CAN TAKE IT EASY IN TERMS OF WHAT THEY WANT TO DO AND JUST LET THE OTHER COUNTRY TAKE THE FULL BRUNT.

    // END ACT //

    OF ALL U-S ALLIES, PERHAPS TURKEY HAS SUFFERED THE MOST FROM THE EMBARGO ON IRAQ. IT CLAIMS TO HAVE LOST THIRTY BILLION DOLLARS IN TRADE. PKK (KUDISHTAN PEOPLE'S PARTY) INSURGENTS TAKE REFUGE ACROSS THE BORDER IN TURBULENT NORTHERN IRAQ. EVEN SO, ALAN MAKOVSKY, A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY, THINKS TURKEY WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG AMERICAN INITIATIVE:

    // MAKOVSKY ACT //

    IF THE TURKS WERE CONVINCED THAT THE UNITED STATES WERE REALLY ABOUT TO STRIKE A DEFT BLOW TO THE SADDAM HUSSEIN REGIME AND THAT IT HAD A REASONABLE PLAN FOR WHAT WOULD FOLLOW, I THINK YOU WOULD FIND THE TURKS MORE AMENABLE FOR HELPING OUT, AND CERTAINLY THIS IS A TIME RIGHT NOW WHEN THE TURKS WANT A LOT FROM THE UNITED STATES IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR THEIR MEMBERSHIP BID IN THE EUROPEAN UNION, SUPPORT FOR THEIR BID FOR A PIPELINE TO SEND CASPIAN SEA OIL THROUGH TURKEY OUT TO THE MEDITERRANEAN AND OTHER IMPORTANT DIPLOMATIC ISSUES.

    // END ACT //

    FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSTS SAYS A SUPERPOWER, LIKE A LESSER POWER, MUST ADROITLY HANDLE ITS ALLIES. THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR UNITY. (SIGNED)
    NEB/PT
    04-Dec-97 9:19 PM EST (0219 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [09] YEARENDER: U-S FOREIGN POLICY (PART#3) BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=12/5/97
    TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
    NUMBER=5-38309
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:
    /// RE-ISSUING TO CORRECT TYPO IN FOURTH GRAF OF TEXT. REDUCE TENSIONS, STED REDUCED TENSION ///

    INTRO: IF THERE IS SOME CONFUSION IN U-S FOREIGN POLICY IN THE POST COLD WAR WORLD, QUESTIONS ARE ALSO RAISED ABOUT WHO IS MAKING THAT POLICY AMONG THE MANY PARTICIPANTS INSIDE AND OUTSIDE GOVERNMENT. IN THE LAST OF THREE SCRIPTS, V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS SOME VIEWS OF THE FORCES NOW SHAPING U-S POLICY ABROAD.

    TEXT: FOR PETER RODMAN, A TOP FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER IN THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION, SADDAM HUSSEIN'S LATEST CHALLENGE REQUIRED A FIRM U-S RESPONSE:

    // RODMAN ACT //

    THE BIGGER QUESTION, OF COURSE, IS THE UNITED STATES JUSTIFIED IN BELIEVING THAT WE WERE ACTING IN THE NAME OF A GENERAL INTEREST? AND I CERTAINLY THINK WE WERE JUSTIFIED IN BELIEVING WHAT WE WERE RECOMMENDING WAS NOT A PARTICULARLY AMERICAN INTEREST. OUR ALLIES, IN PARTICULAR, ARE MORE DEPENDENT ON MIDDLE EAST OIL THAN WE ARE. WE BELIEVE, JUST AS WE BELIEVED IN 1991, THAT WHAT IS AT STAKE IS A RADICAL STATE GAINING HEGEMONY OVER THE GULF.

    // END ACT //

    THERE WAS WIDESPREAD SUPPORT OF MR. RODMAN'S POSITION. BUT MANY MEMBERS OF THE U-S CONGRESS SAID THE UNITED STATES SHOULD NOT TAKE ACTION ALONE.

    YVONNE HADDAD, PROFESSOR OF ISLAMIC HISTORY AT GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY, THINKS U-S POLICY IS TOO NARROWLY DEFINED AND DETERMINED BY TOO FEW PEOPLE:

    // HADDAD ACT //

    THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY PART OF THE STATE DEPARTMENT BUREAUCRACY. THEY ARE POLITICAL APPOINTEES. THEY HAVE AGENDAS. OUR POLICY TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST HAS BEEN COOPTED BY SPECIFIC GROUPS THAT HAVE A SPECIAL INTEREST IN THE AREA. AND THEREFORE, A LOT OF THE FOREIGN POLICY IS BEING LEGISLATED IN CONGRESS RATHER THAN LONG RANGE DIPLOMATIC OR STRATEGIC INTERESTS OF THE UNITED STATES BEING TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION.

    // END ACT //

    LIKE OTHERS, PROFESSOR HADDAD SAYS U-S POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST SUFFERS FROM LACK OF BALANCE AND IS AROUSING TOO MUCH RESENTMENT IN THE ARAB WORLD. IN HER OPINION, REVIVING THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE PROCESS WOULD REDUCE TENSIONS AND STRENGTHEN AMERICAN INFLUENCE IN THE REGION.

    JOHN MEARSHEIMER, PROFESSOR OF POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO, SAYS THE UNITED STATES IS INVOLVED IN TOO MANY OVERSEAS MISSIONS, MANY OF A MILITARY NATURE. YET HE NOTES FOREIGN POLICY MAKERS DO NOT THEMSELVES SERVE IN THE MILITARY:

    // MEARSHEIMER ACT //

    YOU HAVE A SITUATION DEVELOPING IN THE UNITED STATES WHERE THERE IS A VERY SHARP DIVORCE BETWEEN THE MILITARY - THE PEOPLE WHO SERVE IN IT - AND THE POLICY MAKING ELITES. I THINK IT IS GOING TO BE VERY HARD TO TELL THE AVERAGE PERSON IN THE STREET HE OR SHE MUST SACRIFICE A SON OR DAUGHTER IN EASTERN EUROPE WHEN THE ELITES THEMSELVES ARE PAYING NO PRICE.

    // END ACT //

    BRADFORD MCGUINN, A LECTURER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY WHO WRITES EXTENSIVELY ON THE MIDDLE EAST, SAYS THERE MAY BE MORE COHESION TO U-S FOREIGN POLICY MAKING THAN IS AT FIRST APPARENT. A GROUP OF SEASONED ELDERS, THE SO-CALLED "WISE MEN" OF DAYS GONE BY, ARE STILL AROUND:

    // MCGUINN ACT //

    WHAT YOU MIGHT CALL THE FOREIGN POLICY ELITE IN THIS COUNTRY - FORMER OFFICIALS IN VARIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS, BOTH DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN - PERFORM A CRITICAL ROLE IN WHAT YOU MIGHT CALL A PUBLIC EDUCATION FUNCTION; THAT IS, APPEARING ON TELEVISION PROGRAMS OR ON OP-ED PIECES OR IN TERMS OF THEIR DIRECT INFLUENCE ON CONGRESS AND THE ADMINISTRATION IN FRAMING THE DEBATE.

    // END ACT //

    MR. MCGUINN SAYS THIS FOREIGN POLICY COMMUNITY IS IN THE PROCESS OF RESHAPING U-S POLICY TOWARD IRAN AND THE CASPIAN SEA, WHERE SO MANY NATIONS CONVERGE IN SEARCH OF OIL. THE COMMUNITY, ADDS MR. MCGUINN, MUST NOW CONNECT WITH THE WIDER AND INWARD LOOKING AMERICAN PUBLIC. (SIGNED)
    NEB/PT
    05-Dec-97 12:23 AM EST (0523 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


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