|Friday, 6 December 2019|
RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 1, No. 113, 97-09-09
From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>
Vol. 1, No. 113, 9 September 1997
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
 NAGORNO-KARABAKH PRESIDENT SWORN INArkadii Ghukasyan on 8 September took the oath of office as president of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, RFE/RL's correspondent in Stepanakert. Addressing a special session of the Nagorno-Karabakh parliament, Ghukasyan vowed to guarantee the region's "independence, democracy, and freedom." The swearing-in ceremony was attended by a high- level Armenian delegation that included two government ministers, the chairman of the Constitutional Court, former Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan, and the leaders of the three main opposition parties. Ghukasyan is expected to appoint Nagorno-Karabakh's new prime minister within the next few days.
 ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT BEGINS FALL SESSIONThe agenda for the National Assembly's fall session includes approval of the 1998 budget and up to 70 draft laws, speaker Babken Araktsyan told deputies on 8 September. He noted that the most important of those bills deal with the economy and the reform of the legal system. "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 9 September reported that deputies will also consider an investigation into allegations of misappropriation of international credits. Meeting with representatives of the various parliamentary factions on 7 September, Prime Minister Robert Kocharyan said he hoped new legislation introducing a more equitable tax system will be enacted before the end of the year. He also called for a new privatization strategy, Interfax reported.
 FOURTEEN DIE IN ARMENIAN PRISONS THIS YEARA senior law enforcement official says 14 inmates have died this year in Armenia's prisons because of harsh conditions and inadequate medical care, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The official told a meeting at the Prosecutor-General's Office on 8 September that those shortcomings contribute to the spread of diseases, which threaten to "double and even triple" the mortality rate in the country's jails. In 1995 and 1996, the death toll among prison inmates was 56 and 60, respectively. Pneumonia is the most common cause of death. Some 400 convicts in Armenia are currently suffering from, and six have already died of, that disease so far this year. The total prison population in Armenia is estimated at between 5,000 and 6,000.
 TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER IN BAKUIsmail Cem met with his Azerbaijani counterpart Hasan Hasanov, parliamentary speaker Murtaz Alesqerov, and with President Heidar Aliev in Baku on 8 September, Russian and Azerbaijani agencies reported. The Azerbaijani leaders expressed concern at Turkey's "passivity" in response to the Russian-Armenian strategic treaty signed in August and the earlier clandestine shipments of Russian arms to Armenia. Aliev noted that Turkish intelligence must have been aware of those shipments. He called on Ankara to play a more active role within the OSCE's Minsk Group, which is mediating a settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Aliev conceded that some unspecified aspects of the latest Minsk Group peace proposals "are not fully acceptable" to Azerbaijan but that they constitute a basis for further negotiations, according to ITAR-TASS. The Azerbaijani leaders also made clear their categorical opposition to the opening of a Turkish frontier crossing with Armenia.
 CASPIAN OIL ROUNDUPAliev and Cem pledged their determination to route the main export pipeline for Azerbaijan's Caspian oil from Baku through Turkey to the eastern Mediterranean terminal of Ceyhan, the "Turkish Daily News" reported on 9 September. The same day, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" quoted Turkish Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz as saying Ankara will not compete with Moscow for the main export pipeline. Aliev also announced that Azerbaijan plans to export Turkmen gas via Turkey to Europe did not specify the route for doing so, which would have to cross either Armenia or Iran, according to Turan. Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Azerbaijan International Operating Company engaged in developing three Azerbaijani Caspian oil fields has denied Azerbaijani media reports that the date for the export of the first "early oil" from the Chirag field has been postponed from 1 October to 7 November, Interfax reported on 8 September.
 TAJIKISTAN CELEBRATES INDEPENDENCE, WITHOUT OPPOSITION LEADERThe arrival of United Tajik Opposition (UTO) leader Said Abdullo Nuri in Dushanbe for the 9 September Independence Day festivities has been postponed owing to "technical reasons," RFE/RL correspondents reported. Nuri was scheduled to be in Tajikistan for the celebrations, but a last- minute disagreement over the number of UTO members in the delegation caused the delay. In May, the government and the opposition signed a peace agreement in Moscow. This is the first time in Tajikistan's short history as an independent state that the country has not been at war on its Independence Day.
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
 NATO THWARTS BOSNIAN SERB COUP ATTEMPTSFOR troops prevented over 100 buses carrying supporters of Bosnian Serb hard-line leader Radovan Karadzic from entering Banja Luka on 8 September. NATO spokesmen told CNN the next day that the troops sealed off the town to prevent a coup against Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic, who has her headquarters there. The spokesmen added that some of Karadzic's supporters had previously entered Banja Luka and sought to take control of police headquarters and other strategic buildings. Coup organizers had paid $130 each to the people on the buses, some of whom threw stones at peacekeepers. The buses returned to eastern Bosnia on 9 September.
 PLAVSIC'S POLICE SEAL OFF HARD-LINERS' HOTELPlavsic's police on 9 September surrounded the hotel in Banja Luka where Karadzic's chief supporters had spent the night. Momcilo Krajisnik, who is the Serbian member of the Bosnian joint presidency, and Prime Minister Gojko Klickovic, are heading the group from Pale. Police said they are looking for illegal weapons and have towed away some cars belonging to Krajisnik and his party as part of their search, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Banja Luka. Police added that they have arrested 13 special police from Pale for possessing illegal weapons. An adviser to Krajisnik said he and the others in the delegation are hostages. CNN reported that the situation is calm. Serbian Orthodox Patriarch Pavle attempted to mediate between Krajisnik and Plavsic, but that meeting was inconclusive (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 September 1997).
 NATO COMMANDER DEMANDS BOSNIAN SERB TV HONOR AGREEMENTSFOR commander Gen. Eric Shinseki said on 8 September that the hard-liners' TV Pale must broadcast materials supplied by SFOR and by Carlos Westendorp, the international community's chief representative in Bosnia, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Pale. Shinseki and Krajisnik had earlier signed an agreement, according to which SFOR returned a transmitter near Bijeljina to TV Pale and Pale agreed to tone down its anti-NATO broadcasts and to broadcast materials supplied by NATO and Westendorp (see "RFE/RL Newsline, 3 September 1997). TV Pale announced on 8 September, however, that it will not air the foreigners' programs or submit to what it called international censorship.
 BOSNIAN CROATS CHARGE BIAS IN UPCOMING VOTETop ethnic Croatian leaders from Bosnia and Herzegovina said in Sarajevo on 8 September that they doubt the local elections slated for 13-14 September can be free or fair. Kresimir Zubak, the Croatian member of the Bosnian joint presidency, said that Croats, including some of those living abroad, have been denied their right to vote in large parts of Bosnia. Zubak added that "terrorist acts" have been committed against Croats to prevent them from participating in the political process, but he did not name specific incidents or say who was involved. Zubak charged, however, that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which is supervising the elections, has discriminated against Croats. Meanwhile in Zagreb, representatives of the small Croatian Christian Democratic Union of Bosnia- Herzegovina said that Zubak and his colleagues have failed to solve the refugee problem and should make way for new leaders and policies.
 CROATIA LAUNCHES MAJOR HIGHWAY PROJECTTransport Minister Zeljko Luzavec said on 8 September that the government will give top priority to finishing a highway linking Rijeka to Zagreb and the Hungarian border by the year 2000, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Zagreb. Observers noted that highway construction and other infrastructure projects are of central political and economic importance both to Croatia and to neighboring Slovenia. Meanwhile in Ljubljana, a spokesman for the Slovenian People's Party announced that the party will run parliamentary speaker Janez Podobnik in the presidential elections expected later this year, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported on 8 September. Podobnik is the first prominent politician to enter the race against incumbent President Milan Kucan, whom most observers expect to be easily reelected.
 KOSOVARS, OPPOSITION ACCUSE SERBIAN POLICEThe Kosovo Center for the Defense of Human Rights demanded in Pristina on 8 September that the Serbian police explain how three young men were killed recently in the province. The police said the three died in a traffic accident, but the center charged that at least one of the men's bodies had gunshot wounds. In Pirot, police arrested several hundred supporters of the Democratic Party who were demonstrating against the candidacy of Zoran Lilic for the Serbian presidency, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Belgrade. Spokesmen for the Democratic Party said the police had no business arresting the demonstrators, who had booed Lilic, a close associate of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.
 ALBANIAN POLITICIAN ENDS HUNGER STRIKEFormer parliamentary speaker Pjeter Arbnori ended his 20-day hunger strike for balanced television reporting on 8 September after his Democratic Party and the governing Socialists reached a deal on allotting air time on television newscasts. The two largest parties agreed that air time will be granted proportionally on the basis of the number of votes a party received in the 29 June election. Former President Sali Berisha called the pact "a victory for freedom." It is unclear whether the smaller parties will accept the deal, which parliament must still approve.
 CHINA, ROMANIA TO EXPAND TIESMeeting in Beijing on 8 September, Romanian President Emil Constantinescu and his Chinese counterpart, Jiang Zemin, signed agreements on expanded trade and "intensified political dialogue," RFE/RL's Romanian service reported. The signing took place on the first day of Constantinescu's five- day visit to China. Constantinescu is scheduled to meet with Chinese Prime Minister Li Peng on 9 September. The two leaders are expected to discuss a draft contract on the sale of some 50,000 Romanian-built Dacia cars to China. Constantinescu also plans to visit Shanghai on 10 September and the economic zone of Zhuhai, in southern China, the next day. He is scheduled to return to Bucharest after visiting Hong Kong.
 ROMANIAN PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE REORGANIZEDThe Prosecutor-General's Office has been reorganized as part of the government's anti-corruption drive, state television reported on 8 September. A new service for special enquiries has been established. President Emil Constantinescu has pledged to push forward with the campaign against corruption on his return from China within the next few days. Meanwhile, RFE/RL's Romanian service reported that leaders of the ruling parties have asked why they were not informed in advance of state police chief Pavel Abraham's firing. The Interior Ministry on 6 September had accused Abraham of "lack of interest" and a poor record in the fight against crime. Romanian daily newspapers speculate that the sacking was connected to preferential loans Abraham allegedly received from the state- owned foreign trade bank. That bank is currently undergoing a corruption investigation.
 MORE PRIVATIZATION DELAYS IN BULGARIAMladen Georgiev, head of the government's structural reform program, said he expects amendments to the privatization law to be implemented in February or March 1998, the Sofia dailies "Kontinent" and "Trud" reported on 9 September. He predicted the changes would be approved by the end of 1997, noting they are needed because privatization is not moving forward as quickly as the government expected. Georgiev also said that three privatization methods are being considered: a second wave of voucher coupon mass privatization, the sale of firms on a case-by-case basis, or holding tenders for packages of 10 to 20 companies. Alexander Bozhkov, deputy prime minister in charge of industry, said on 8 September that Prime Minister Ivan Kostov will receive a proposal for a new privatization strategy by the end of September. Bozhkov recently told RFE/RL's Sofia bureau that privatization is being delayed by state managers who are trying to retain control of their firms.
[C] END NOTE
 "EASTERN EUROPE NO LONGER EXISTS"by Jeremy Bransten and Jolyon Naegele
Timothy Garton Ash, British historian and expert on Central Europe, says it is quite clear that Eastern Europe no longer exists. He made the comment in Prague during the recent Forum 2000 conference on the state of the world at the turn of the millennium. As Garton Ash put it, today there is east- central Europe, southeastern Europe, and several other Europes, and their sets of problems are quite different.
Garton Ash, a professor at Oxford University, is the author of books on Poland's Solidarity trade union movement, the Czech velvet revolution, and German unification. His latest work recounts how he read his East German secret police (Stasi) file.
Garton Ash notes that he was among those who in the 1980s popularized the notion of Central Europe. "We meant it of course in contra-distinction to the Soviet Eastern Europe." But he says that what has happened since 1989 is that the idea of "Central Europe" has more or less collapsed. In its stead, attempts have been made to point to a new division between Orthodox and Roman Catholic Europe. But this distinction, too, is a dubious one, according to Garton Ash.
He also notes that Slovakia, albeit nominally a Roman Catholic nation, will not be among the former Communist states of Central Europe joining NATO in 1999 and that its prospects for joining the EU are quite remote. He says that the three nations that have been invited to join NATO--the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland--are only a part of what is usually considered Roman Catholic Central Europe.
Garton Ash says Slovakia has shown many predictions about the post- Communist world to be dramatically wrong: "Slovakia could have been in NATO in 1999; Slovakia blew it." In his view, Slovakia failed because of politics, and the quality of post-Communist politics in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, as opposed to post-Communist politics elsewhere, have made the crucial difference.
Garton Ash believes that many Western politicians are convinced that NATO can admit Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic and then stop its expansion for a long time. But he says he is convinced this view is not realistic. There is a logic that leads from one expansion to the next, and the first waves of NATO and EU expansion to the East are only the beginning of a very long process, he stresses.
Asked whether Czech President Vaclav Havel, one of the organizers of Forum 2000, should consider retiring from politics when his current term expires early next year, Garton Ash responded that while change is always a healthy thing, Havel had a clear choice whether to remain in politics five years ago, when Czechoslovakia ceased to exist. At that time, he said, Havel decided to lead the new Czech Republic rather than go back to being a "great political and moral intellectual authority." But, Garton Ash says, once Havel made the choice to be president of the Czech Republic, with considerably diminished powers, it is consistent and right that he should run again. He points out that if re-elected, Havel will be able to oversee the completion of his country's return to Europe--that is, the Czech Republic's entry into NATO and the EU. (Havel announced two months ago he would be willing to run again but recently hinted he might not do so after all.)
Garton Ash said Europe is currently in what he characterized as a "period of disorder and reformation." He added that such periods have traditionally been succeeded by periods of order. But, he remarked, it remains to be seen whether the coming period of order will be a liberal order or a hegemonic order. All postcommunist countries have certain features in common, he says. These include privatization by the nomenklatura, a kind of predatory capitalism, and a scale of corruption rarely encountered in Western Europe. But there are also growing differences among the former communist countries, he notes. Garton Ash says that, at the same time, several Western models of capitalism are currently being questioned-most notably, the West German model of a market economy. The West in general, he adds, faces the huge challenge of structural, large-scale unemployment, whose outcome is unpredictable: "If we do not know what kind of capitalism is emerging out of the crisis in the West, I do not quite know how we can predict what will come in the East."
The authors are RFE/RL news editors. Garton Ash's remarks are taken from an interview with RFE/RL and from his lecture at Forum 2000.
Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty