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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 114, 98-06-16Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 114, 16 June 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] GEORGIAN-ABKHAZ TALKS MAY RESUME THIS WEEKGeorgian presidential press secretary Vakhtang Abashidze told Interfax on15 June that talks between the Georgian and Abkhaz presidential envoys that were suspended in Moscow on 11 June may resume this week. At a meeting with journalists in Sukhumi on 15 June, the Abkhaz representative at those talks, Anri Djergenia, said he believes a meeting between the Georgian and Abkhaz presidents should take place as soon as possible. The chairman of the Abkhaz parliament in exile, Tamaz Nadareishvili, told Caucasus Press it should assume responsibility for conducting talks with the Abkhaz leadership. He added that it should also liaise with the Georgian guerrilla movement and allocate emergency aid to the Georgian displaced persons who fled Abkhazia during last month's fighting. The previous day, an Abkhaz policeman was shot dead when Georgian guerrillas ambushed a patrol in Abkhazia's Gali Raion, Russian agencies reported. LF[02] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT PRAISES RUSSIAN POSITIONIn his weekly radio address on 15 June, Eduard Shevardnadze expressed his approval for Moscow's "clear-cut and radical" assessment of last month's fighting in Gali. Shevardnadze said that if the present situation does not change, Moscow will classify what happened in May as genocide and ethnic cleansing. He did not say, however, what exactly would impel Russia to revise its evaluation of events that have already taken place. LF[03] GEORGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN YEREVANIrakli Menagharishvili made a brief stopover in Yerevan on 15 June on his return from a three-day official visit to Tehran, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Menagharishvili and his Armenian counterpart, Vartan Oskanian, reached agreement on coordinating activities aimed at expediting the two countries' integration into European structures and on resuming the work of a joint commission on economic issues. The two also discussed the recent fighting in Abkhazia but subsequently refused to comment on reports that Yerevan may join ongoing efforts to mediate a settlement of that conflict. Menagharishvili told journalists that Georgia's policy of maintaining good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan does not impinge on either country's interests. Oskanian positively assessed Georgian President Shevardnadze's "Peaceful Caucasus" initiative but noted that Azerbaijan is an obstacle to Armenian participation in pan-Caucasian initiatives, Caucasus Press reported. LF[04] ARMENIANS FROM KARABAKH PUSH FOR REPATRIATIONArmenians forced to flee Nagorno- Karabakh's Shaumian raion during an assault by Soviet army and Azerbaijani OMON troops in June 1991 visited the Yerevan embassies of the three countries that co-chair the OSCE Minsk Group, Noyan Tapan reported on 12 June. The fugitives are classified as internally displaced persons, not as refugees, because they fled within the confines of the USSR. They appealed for help in returning to their homes and in tracing missing relatives. LF[05] DEMIRCHIAN REGISTERS OWN POLITICAL PARTYThe Armenian Ministry of Justice on 15 June formally registered the National Party of Armenia Noyan Tapan reported. That formation is headed by former Armenian Communist Party First Secretary and defeated presidential candidate Karen Demirchian. "Azg" on 16 June described the new party's orientation as "centrist, moderately liberal, and social democratic," predicting that it will result in a "redistribution of forces in Armenia's political landscape." LF[06] KAZAKH PRESIDENT MEETS WITH TURKISH COUNTERPARTNursultan Nazarbayev and Suleyman Demirel held talks at the latter's Ankara residence on 15 June, an RFE/RL's Kazakh Service correspondent reported. Nazarbayev called for increasing the annual trade turnover between the two countries from $267 million to $1 billion, according to dpa. Nazarbayev also met with Foreign Minister Ismail Cem and Premier Mesut Yilmaz. Kazakh Presidential spokesman Kairat Sarybaev told Interfax on 14 June that Nazarbayev's talks with Turkish leaders would focus on the expansion of bilateral economic ties and Kazakhstan's possible use of the proposed Baku- Ceyhan pipeline simultaneously with other routes for the export of Kazakh oil. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[07] YELTSIN, MILOSEVIC MEETPresident Boris Yeltsin and his Yugoslav counterpart, Slobodan Milosevic, held talks in Moscow on 16 June. Following the meeting, Yeltsin said that Milosevic agreed to talks with the Kosovar Albanians but did not elaborate. The previous day, U.S. President Bill Clinton urged Yeltsin in a 40-minute telephone conversation to make clear to Milosevic that his position on Kosova is "precarious." After the Clinton-Yeltsin conversation, a White House spokesman said that Yeltsin is "much more anxious to see a diplomatic solution, but I think it's very clear, and the Russian government knows, that we intend to proceed with [force] if necessary." The spokesman added that "Milosevic listens very carefully to what President Yeltsin has to say." In fact, however, Moscow's influence on Belgrade has been limited since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Serbian-Russian relations historically have been uneven. PM[08] NATO, RUSSIA DIFFER ON MANEUVERSRussian Defense Minister Igor Sergeev said in Moscow on 15 June that NATO officials did not properly consult him regarding air maneuvers that the Atlantic alliance staged over Albania and Macedonia the same day (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 June 1998). Following talks with Sergeev in Moscow, General Hugh Shelton, who is chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said "Russia has not expressed any concern today about the exercises actually taking place, just about their timing." Shelton suggested that the Russians had not expected NATO to carry out so quickly the decision to hold the maneuvers, which its defense ministers reached in Brussels on 12 June. Shelton added that the exercises provided support for Yeltsin in his negotiations with Milosevic. Sergeev was at NATO headquarters from 9-12 June. Elsewhere in Moscow on 15 June, a Russian representative to NATO denied media reports that Russia has withdrawn its military envoy to NATO to protest the exercises, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[09] U.S., KOSOVARS HAIL EXERCISES...In London on 15 June, NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana said the Milosevic- Yeltsin talks are the Serbian leader's "last chance" to achieve a diplomatic solution to the Kosova crisis, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported. In Washington, a State Department spokesman said that the maneuvers were necessary because diplomacy alone had not proven effective in dealing with Milosevic, the VOA reported. Kosovar shadow-state President Ibrahim Rugova said in Prishtina that the exercises show that "genocide has no future in Europe." PM[10] ...AS DOES ALBANIAThe Albanian government issued a statement on 15 June welcoming the NATO display of air- power as a means to "stop the police and military violence by Belgrade in Kosova and [Belgrade's] notorious policy of ethnic cleansing." Prime Minister Fatos Nano said "Albania is ready to put at the disposal of NATO troops all its logistics and allow flight paths for NATO planes, as was the case with today's encouraging maneuvers." He also told visiting Swedish Defense Minister Bjorn von Sydow that "it is most necessary to stop the Serbian war machine because the political parties in Kosova cannot negotiate under present conditions." And President Rexhep Meidani said NATO air strikes against Serbian targets might be required if Belgrade's forces continue to attack villages in Kosova. FS[11] COOK SAYS UN MAJORITY FOR ACTIONBritish Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said in London on 16 June that "there is absolutely no doubt there is a great majority in the Security Council for a resolution" in support of military intervention to resolve the conflict in Kosova. He added that NATO did not mislead Russia regarding its air maneuvers over Albania and Macedonia (see above). "I'm not entirely sure that is something [the Russians] really can stand up. After all, there was a Russian representative, currently attached to Brussels. He was aware of the discussions that took place last week." Meanwhile in Beijing, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said that "as a sovereign country, Yugoslavia's sovereignty and territorial integrity should be respected. China does not agree to outside interference with military force" in the Kosova question. PM[12] EU SENDS ULTIMATUM TO MILOSEVICEU leaders issued a declaration in Cardiff on 15 June to demand that Milosevic end attacks on civilians, withdraw his armed forces from Kosova, admit international monitors to the province, allow refugees to go home, and launch talks with Kosovar representatives. The text stated that "no state that uses brutal military repression against its own citizens can expect to find a place in modern Europe." The document added that "an immediate cessation of violence will be required as well from the Kosova Albanian side. The EU will play its part in stopping the flow of money and weapons to Kosova Albanian armed groups." EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Hans van den Broek said that the key issue is to end "a situation on the ground where innocent men, women and children are being slaughtered," regardless of whether the UN gives NATO a mandate to do so. PM[13] UCK SETS CONDITIONS FOR TALKSJakup Krasniqi, who is the main spokesman for the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), said on Albanian Television on 15 June that negotiations with Serbia can be held on three conditions: the prior withdrawal of Serbian armed forces from Kosova, international mediation for talks, and "proper preparation" of the negotiations. It is unclear whether he would accept Rugova's current negotiating team as the Kosovars' representative or whether Krasniqi would insist that the UCK also participate. He said only that "political pluralism among Albanians in Kosova is now a luxury." The Serbian authorities are unlikely to enter into any talks with the UCK, which they call "separatist and terrorist." PM[14] UCK ACTIVITIES IN ALBANIA INCREASEFoxton William, who is the OSCE representative in Bajram Curri, told dpa on 15 June that "last night...300 fighters with horses loaded with weapons crossed the border into Kosova." The statement is in line with other media reports that UCK fighters are using the Tropoja region as a safe haven and training base. The dpa reporters also saw vans transporting armed, young UCK recruits into Kosova. One UCK fighter said that "we are getting better armed and better organized with each passing day." Persistent but unconfirmed reports suggest that the UCK has been using the family home of former Albanian President Sali Berisha as an operational base and arsenal for the past several months. FS[15] REFUGEES CONTINUE TO ARRIVE IN ALBANIAAn unnamed Western official in Bajram Curri told Reuters on 15 June that 365 refugees crossed into Albania that day. The refugees reported that Serbian helicopter gunships attacked their village the previous day. Other refugees told reporters that Serbian infantry and helicopters followed them up to the border in the night from 14-15 June. They added that some 3,000 people fled the village of Junik over the weekend and that many of them remain trapped in the mountains because Serbian forces are now patrolling some of the paths refugees previously took to cross the border. FS[16] UN ORGANIZATIONS CALL FOR HELPIn Geneva on 16 June, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNICEF, and four other UN aid agencies issued a joint emergency call to international donors for $18 million to help cope with the Kosova refugee crisis. UNHCR representatives said that 13,000 refugees have recently arrived in Albania and 9,000 in Montenegro. An estimated 45,000 are displaced within Kosova itself but do not fall under the mandate of the UNHCR. UNHCR chief Sadako Ogata warned that "while we hope for a peaceful resolution of the Kosova crisis, we must be ready for an even larger number of refugees." FS[17] BOSNIAN SERB PARLIAMENT DUMPS HARD-LINERSLegislators in the Republika Srpska parliament voted by 43 to 35 in Banja Luka early on 16 June to remove speaker Dragan Kalinic and his deputy, Nikola Poplasen, from office. Kalinic, who backs former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, said his opponents have shown "their true colors of servility to outside masters." The international community's Carlos Westendorp recently asked the parliament to elect a Croat or Muslim as speaker. It is unclear when the new speaker and deputy will be selected. In New York the previous day, the Security Council voted to extend the mandate of 33,000 SFOR troops and 2,000 UN police until June 1999. PM[18] EXTREMIST ROMANIAN LEADER DENIES HE WAS SECURITATE INFORMERCorneliu Vadim Tudor, chairman of the Greater Romania Party (PRM), has said he will sue the daily "Ziua" for having "fabricated" evidence of his links with the communist secret police. "Ziua" on 15 June published a hand- written statement signed by Tudor and pledging to work as an informer for the Securitate. The letter is from the private archives of Ilie Merce, a former Securitate officer, who is now a member of the PRM leadership. It supports earlier articles in the press according to which Merce supervised Tudor's activity as a Securitate informer. Meanwhile, Democratic Party deputy Adrian Vilau, who has admitted to having been an informer, says he refuses to resign as chairman of the parliamentary commission supervising the Foreign Information Service, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS[19] NATO DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL IN ROMANIAKlaus-Peter Kleiber on 15 June told Prime Minister Radu Vasile that the decision on whether to admit Romania to NATO in a second enlargement wave may well depend on the progress of the reform process in Romania, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Vasile told the guest that he does not expect Romanian-Hungarian relations to deteriorate as a result of the change of government in Budapest. After meeting Foreign Minister Andrei Plesu, Kleiber said a NATO peace-keeping process in Kosova could well be open to those countries taking part in the Partnership for Peace. MS[20] ZHIRINOVSKY ALLY WOUNDED IN TIRASPOLAleksandr Saidakov, the Transdniester representative of Vladimir Zhirinovsky's ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, was shot and seriously wounded in Tiraspol on 12 June, ITAR-TASS reported on 15 June. He is in critical condition, after being hospitalized with bullets in his head and neck. The authorities have arrested a suspect but it is unclear whether he is the person who shot Saidakov. Saidakov is a prominent businessman and a former minister of transportation in the separatist government. Zhirinovsky denounced the attempt as a "political crime," but Infotag, citing sources close to the Transdniester leadership, said the attempt on Saidakov's life was more likely connected with his business activities. MS[21] SNEGUR ON REUNIFICATION WITH ROMANIAIn an interview with "Kishinevskiye Novosti" on 12 June, Mircea Snegur said that Moldova's reunification with Romania is "not on the current political agenda" and that everyone must "realize that the period of political romanticism is over." The former president also denied he intended to seek Romanian citizenship, saying "I have a motherland of my own" in which "I invested too much effort" to seek another citizenship. Snegur also said he does not intend to run again for the presidency in 2000, Infotag reported. MS[22] BULGARIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN ISRAELNadezhda Mihailova and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed several cooperation agreements on 15 June. They also discussed the situation in Kosova and in the Middle East, dpa reported. In other news, visiting German Defense Minister Volker Ruehe and his Bulgarian counterpart, Georgi Ananiev, have signed an agreement providing for the training of Bulgarian military at German military academies. The agreement extends a similar accord signed in 1994, BTA reported. The two ministers also discussed the situation in Kosova. MS[C] END NOTE[23] POWER COUNTERVAILING AND OTHERWISEby Paul GobleThe weakness of the Russian state increasingly allows privatized firms there to challenge its authority, but the strength of these firms on occasion may help Moscow to extract more resources from the international financial community. That dual role of large Russian firms was highlighted at the weekend, when Gazprom chief Rem Vyakhirev told European officials that his firm would not be able to afford to sign new gas export contracts if the Russian government implemented plans to collect more taxes from his company. But because the IMF reportedly has demanded that Moscow break up the Russian gas monopoly, Vyakhirev's threat at a meeting in Sardinia could trigger a new financial and hence political crisis in the Russian capital. In a speech in Sardinia to the European Business Congress, which Vyakhirev himself founded, the Gazprom chief said that Moscow's plans to impose a value-added tax of 22 percent and an excise duty of 30 percent on exports would effectively "bury" future gas supplies from Russia to Europe. Such taxes, Vyakhirev said, were making the export of gas increasingly unprofitable, with his company now losing approximately "a dollar for every 1,000 cubic meters." No privately owned firm, he noted, could continue to operate for very long with such losses. By painting the situation in such dark colors, Vyakhirev was clearly hoping to use the threat of reduced natural gas deliveries to force the West to stop putting pressure on the Russian government over tax collection. The West wants Moscow to improve its collection of taxes, particularly from large firms like his. But Vyakhirev's effort to enlist Western support for his company against the Russian authorities may paradoxically work to the advantage of that very government as well. In order to ensure that Russian gas keeps flowing westward, Europeans and those dependent on the European economies are likely to press both for a more understanding approach to Moscow's difficulties with tax collection and for additional loans to the beleaguered Russian government. And they may even back away from the support they apparently have given to IMF plans to demand that the Russian government break up Gazprom and make other reforms if Moscow is to receive more aid. If Vyakhirev's threat works in that way, the Russian government would be the beneficiary in the short run, but the Russian economy and political system might be its victims over the longer haul. Greater IMF assistance and less IMF micro- management of the Russian economy could indeed give Moscow the resources it needs to get through its current financial crisis and also allow it greater freedom of action in dealing with powerful interests in Russian society. But this victory could prove a Pyrrhic one both for the Russian government and for Gazprom itself. More foreign assistance and fewer conditions on it would allow the Russian government to put off some reforms that will be necessary if it is to put its economy back on track. And to the extent that happens, the crises that Russia is experiencing may be put off but will not be solved. And any success by Gazprom in holding both the Russian government and Western Europe hostage on tax collections and gas deliveries is likely to increase demands from reformers in the Russian government for breaking up a domestic firm with so much power. Such demands and the certain resistance by Gazprom and other members of the oligarchy that now dominates the Russian economic scene could trigger a new and potentially more serious political crisis. And that crisis, in turn, would provide another measure of the strengths and weaknesses of both sides as well as of the ways in which each continues to depend on and support the other. 16-06-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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