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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 138, 99-07-19

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 138, 19 July 1999


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTS MEET
  • [02] GEORGIAN FACTION LEADERS DISCUSS AMENDMENTS TO ELECTION LAW
  • [03] TURKEY TO GIVE GEORGIA THIRD GRANT FOR DEFENSE PURPOSES
  • [04] LEBED IN ADJARIA
  • [05] GAZPROM CHAIRMAN IN KAZAKHSTAN
  • [06] RUSSIAN, TAJIK, UZBEK FOREIGN MINISTERS MEET
  • [07] RUSSIA PRAISES TAJIK RECONCILIATION PROGRESS...
  • [08] ...ACKNOWLEDES PROBLEMS IN RELATIONS WITH UZBEKISTAN
  • [09] TAJIK FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS 'NO PROBLEMS' IN RELATIONS WITH
  • [10] RUSSIA, TURKMENISTAN PLEDGE TO INCREASE COOPERATION

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [11] OJDANIC SAYS ARMY BACKS MILOSEVIC
  • [12] DRASKOVIC: OFFER MILOSEVIC IMMUNITY
  • [13] YUGOSLAV RESERVISTS END PROTESTS
  • [14] BELGRADE'S OLIVE BRANCH TO PODGORICA?
  • [15] KLEIN: CROATIA, SERBIA KEY TO BOSNIA'S FUTURE
  • [16] KOSOVAR GROUPS AGREE ON CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES
  • [17] UN TO HAVE BINDING ARBITRATION IN KOSOVA COUNCIL
  • [18] THACI HEADS PARADE IN RAHOVEC
  • [19] 'OBSERVER': NATO PREPARED TO INVADE KOSOVA
  • [20] ALBANIA PRAISES MACEDONIAN PLEDGE ON UNIVERSITY
  • [21] ALBANIAN DEMOCRATS END PARLIAMENTARY BOYCOTT
  • [22] ALBANIA EXPELS TERRORISM SUSPECTS
  • [23] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION CRITICIZES SENTENCING OF GENERALS
  • [24] ROMANIAN POLITICIANS PLAY 'MUSICAL PARTY CHAIRS'
  • [25] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT SATISFIED WITH KYIV SUMMIT
  • [26] MOLDOVA TO SETTLE ROMANIAN DEBT WITH COMPANY SHARES
  • [27] BULGARIA TO OFFER TRANSIT RIGHTS TO RUSSIAN KFOR TROOPS

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [28] A NEVER-ENDING UNIFICATION STORY

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTS MEET

    Robert Kocharian and

    Heidar Aliev held talks on 16 July in Geneva on the Karabakh

    conflict. AP quoted Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian

    as telling Armenian National Television after the meeting

    that the two presidents had "attempted to remove the

    obstacles" impeding work on a document that would lay the

    basis for talks. Azerbaijan rejected the most recent draft

    peace plan by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen because it

    objected to the proposed concept of a "common state" composed

    of both Azerbaijan and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh

    Republic. Oskanian said it is too early to speak of a

    breakthrough, and he expressed the hope that talks will

    continue "at the highest level." LF

    [02] GEORGIAN FACTION LEADERS DISCUSS AMENDMENTS TO ELECTION LAW

    Georgian parliamentary speaker held talks in Tbilisi on 16

    July with representatives of parliamentary factions on the

    proposed amendment to the existing election law raising the

    threshold for parliamentary representation under the

    proportional system from 5 percent to 7 percent, Caucasus

    Press reported. The parliament is to debate that amendment at

    an extraordinary session on 20 July. Under another proposed

    amendment, five of the 19 members of the Central Electoral

    Commission are to be appointed by the president, five by the

    parliament, seven by the parties that polled the largest

    number of votes in last November's local elections, and one

    each by Abkhazia and Adjaria. LF

    [03] TURKEY TO GIVE GEORGIA THIRD GRANT FOR DEFENSE PURPOSES

    Senior Turkish and Georgian military officials are to sign an

    agreement on Ankara's allocation of a further $3,700,000 for

    the Georgian Defense Ministry and border guards, Caucasus

    Press reported on 16 July. Turkey allocated $5.5 million to

    Georgia in 1998 and another $1.7 million last month (see

    "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 June 1999). LF

    [04] LEBED IN ADJARIA

    Krasnoyarsk Krai Governor Aleksandr Lebed

    arrived in Batumi on 17 July for a two-day visit, Caucasus

    Press reported. "Dilis gazeti" on 11 May had quoted Adjar

    State Council chairman Aslan Abashidze as saying that "Lebed

    adores Adjaria." Lebed's deputy, Shalva Breus, visited

    Adjaria in May to discuss prospects for joint ventures,

    including a joint airline, for which Krasnoyarsk intended to

    invest 25 percent of the necessary funding. LF

    [05] GAZPROM CHAIRMAN IN KAZAKHSTAN

    Rem Vyakhirev met in Astana

    on 16 July with Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Nurlan

    Balghymbaev to discuss a natural gas swap, Interfax reported.

    Under the proposed deal, Russia would receive natural gas

    from the Karachaganak field in western Kazakhstan in exchange

    for Russian gas delivered to Kustanai and Aktyubinsk Oblasts

    in the north of the country. LF

    [06] RUSSIAN, TAJIK, UZBEK FOREIGN MINISTERS MEET

    Meeting in

    Tashkent on 16 July, Igor Ivanov, Talbak Nazarov, and

    Abdulaziz Kamilov assessed implementation of the Cooperation

    Declaration signed by the three countries' presidents in

    Tashkent on 12 October 1998, Interfax reported. The

    declaration pledged cooperation in combating religious

    extremism in Central Asia. In a joint communique, the three

    foreign ministers called for further efforts to stabilize the

    political situation in Tajikistan and stressed the need for

    concerted actions to end the conflict in Afghanistan through

    constructive dialogue under the aegis of the UN. They pledged

    to continue regular trilateral meetings. LF

    [07] RUSSIA PRAISES TAJIK RECONCILIATION PROGRESS...

    Ivanov told

    journalists in Tashkent after the meeting that Tajikistan's

    experience of national reconciliation and repatriating

    refugees since the signing of the General Peace Agreement two

    years ago deserves greater publicity and wider application,

    Interfax reported. LF

    [08] ...ACKNOWLEDES PROBLEMS IN RELATIONS WITH UZBEKISTAN

    Ivanov

    also told journalists that he and Uzbekistan's President

    Islam Karimov had a "very frank" discussion on 15 July about

    all outstanding problems in bilateral relations, including

    the failure to implement previously signed agreements,

    Interfax reported. Karimov, for his part, told Interfax that

    the two countries should define their priorities more clearly

    in order to achieve an improvement in bilateral relations.

    Uzbekistan in April joined the GUAM alignment, which Moscow

    perceives as pro-Western and intended to undermine the CIS

    from within. LF

    [09] TAJIK FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS 'NO PROBLEMS' IN RELATIONS WITH

    UZBEKISTAN

    In an exclusive interview with ITAR-TASS

    following the trilateral talks in Tashkent on 16 July, Talbak

    Nazarov said he sees "no problems for now" in relations with

    Uzbekistan, adding that the two countries have in recent

    years built "very good relations both politically and

    economically." Relations between the two countries cooled

    late last year after Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov

    accused Uzbekistan of abetting an insurgency by rebel Tajik

    Colonel Mahmud Khudoiberdiev. LF

    [10] RUSSIA, TURKMENISTAN PLEDGE TO INCREASE COOPERATION

    Visiting

    Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told Interfax on 16 July

    in Ashgabat that he agreed with Turkmen President Saparmurat

    Niyazov to create an intergovernmental commission aimed at

    increasing bilateral political, trade, economic, and military

    cooperation. He added that the current level of cooperation

    "can hardly satisfy either side..., our potential is much

    greater." Niyazov stressed that "our doors are open, and we

    are willing to cooperate with great Russia. It is Russia that

    has so far not been coming here." He argued that Russia has

    isolated itself from other CIS countries and is "acting as if

    it were hurt" by the break-up of the Soviet Union. Niyazov

    also urged Russia to help Turkmenistan mediate in the

    Afghanistan conflict. He noted that representatives of both

    warring sides were in Ashgabat on 16 July for consultations

    with Turkmen officials. Ivanov said Russia will send a

    delegation to a conference on Afghanistan that is to take

    place next week in Tashkent. FS


    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [11] OJDANIC SAYS ARMY BACKS MILOSEVIC

    General Dragoljub Ojdanic,

    who is army chief of staff, said in Nova Varos on 17 July

    that "the main task of all of us is to preserve the stability

    of the state. [In Yugoslavia] there are lots of people who

    have sold out [their country] and vassals of the West, who

    want to remove the [legally elected] authorities by force and

    push the state into a new catastrophe.... [Those who seek to

    do so] will not have popular support." Ojdanic is a political

    appointee who has held his current post since only 24

    November 1998. Opposition journalist Milos Vasic told the BBC

    on 19 July that it is unclear whether Ojdanic speaks for

    anyone except himself and the leadership of Yugoslav

    President Slobodan Milosevic. The Hague-based war crimes

    tribunal recently indicted Ojdanic, Milosevic, and three

    other top-ranking Belgrade officials for war crimes in

    conjunction with Operation Horseshoe in the spring of 1999 in

    Kosova. PM

    [12] DRASKOVIC: OFFER MILOSEVIC IMMUNITY

    Vuk Draskovic, who heads

    the opposition Serbian Renewal Movement, told the

    "International Herald Tribune" of 19 July that the easiest

    way to get Milosevic out of power is to let him remain "as a

    figurehead...[of a] transitional government" that would

    prepare the way for new elections at all levels. In order to

    persuade Milosevic to go peacefully and to attract the

    support of some of his backers, Draskovic argued that the new

    authorities should give Milosevic immunity from prosecution

    and from deportation to The Hague, where he is wanted for war

    crimes. On 17 July, Draskovic told a crowd of 15,000 in

    Kragujevac that the transition government should hold office

    for between three and six months. Besides preparing for

    elections, its tasks would be to get international sanctions

    lifted and ensure the return of Serbian refugees to Kosova.

    Observers note that the international community is unlikely

    to lift sanctions as long as Milosevic remains in office. PM

    [13] YUGOSLAV RESERVISTS END PROTESTS

    In Nis on 18 July, some 100

    army reservists ended three days of protests for back pay for

    recent service in Kosova. General Nebojsa Pavkovic, who

    commands the Third Army, promised in a local television

    broadcast to meet their demands. He noted that the government

    owes reservists a total of $82 million, RFE/RL's South Slavic

    Service reported. A spokesman for the Kragujevac reservists

    said, however, that they will take unspecified "more radical

    action" if the authorities do not keep their promises. In

    Prokuplje on 17 July, an unspecified number of reservists

    blocked off the main streets leading in and out of the town

    to demand back pay. They ended their protest when army

    officials agreed to meet their demands. PM

    [14] BELGRADE'S OLIVE BRANCH TO PODGORICA?

    Serbian Deputy Prime

    Minister Bogoljub Karic told the Podgorica daily "Vjesti" of

    17 July that "he has nothing against...a democratic and

    civilized" dissolution of Yugoslavia into two "independent

    and sovereign states" if that is what the Serbian and

    Montenegrin peoples want. If they prefer to remain united in

    one state, he continued, Serbia and Montenegro could each

    have its own currency. Karic added that, in any event, the

    strongest Montenegrin party should have the prime minister's

    post in the federal government. Observers note that the

    leading Montenegrin party is currently the Democratic Party

    of Socialists of President Milo Djukanovic, who is an

    outspoken critic of Milosevic. PM

    [15] KLEIN: CROATIA, SERBIA KEY TO BOSNIA'S FUTURE

    Jacques Klein,

    who is the UN's new special representative in Bosnia, said in

    Sarajevo on 18 July that Bosnia's future will be

    "problematic" unless both Croatia and Serbia become

    democratic. He stressed that those two neighboring countries

    currently "exercise a negative influence" on the

    democratization and stability of Bosnia. Klein stressed the

    importance of Milosevic's departure from office for the peace

    and stability of the region. Klein noted, however, that

    Milosevic retains strong control over the Serbian media and

    that opposition to him remains weak and divided. PM

    [16] KOSOVAR GROUPS AGREE ON CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES

    Several Albanian, Serbian, Turkish, and ethnic Slavic

    Muslim delegates agreed at the first meeting of the UN's

    new transitional council (see below) for Kosova on a series

    of confidence-building measures, UN spokesman Kevin Kennedy

    told RFE/RL's South Slavic Service. Kennedy said that the

    delegates agreed in Prishtina on 16 July on a procedure for

    recruiting people from all ethnic groups for the planned UN

    police force. They also agreed to create joint commissions

    that will visit various parts of Kosova, together with UN

    Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and KFOR officials, to assess the

    needs of the local populations. Furthermore, they agreed to

    quickly resolve disputes surrounding the staffing and work

    of Radio and Television Prishtina so that the station can

    go on the air as soon as possible (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"

    14 July 1999). FS

    [17] UN TO HAVE BINDING ARBITRATION IN KOSOVA COUNCIL

    Kennedy

    told RFE/RL's South Slavic Service that the transitional

    council is not a decision-making body. He stressed that the

    members of the council will consult with and advise UNMIK.

    He added that it will function on the basis of consensus

    when possible. UN Special Representative Bernard Kouchner

    will, however, make binding decisions if the delegates do

    not agree among themselves. Participants included the

    Kosova Liberation Army's (UCK) Hashim Thaci, Rexhep Qosja

    from the United Democratic Movement of Kosova, Serbian

    Orthodox Bishop Artemije Radosavljevic, and publishers

    Veton Surroi and Blerim Shala. The moderate Democratic

    League of Kosova sent no delegates to the meeting (see

    "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 July 1999). The council is scheduled

    to meet again on 19 July. FS

    [18] THACI HEADS PARADE IN RAHOVEC

    Thaci and 300 UCK fighters

    in uniform made a "triumphant entry" into Rahovec on 17

    July "in a show of political and military force," AP

    reported. Thaci had received special permission from KFOR

    to hold the parade, which commemorated the deaths of UCK

    soldiers in the area during the 1998-1999 conflict with

    Serbian forces. Thaci said: "Our job is not done yet. We

    have to be united more than ever for the independence of

    Kosova, and the world must recognize our right to hold a

    referendum on independence." He stressed: "We don't want an

    ethnically pure city here. We must create conditions for

    all the ethnic groups to live here." FS

    [19] 'OBSERVER': NATO PREPARED TO INVADE KOSOVA

    London's "The

    Observer" of 18 July quoted General Sir Charles Guthrie,

    who heads the U.K.'s Defense Staff, and his deputy, Air

    Marshal Sir John Day, as saying that commanders from the

    U.K. and U.S. finalized plans in early June to launch a

    massive ground invasion of Kosova. The project was called

    "Operation B-Minus" and would have involved 170,000 troops,

    including 50,000 from the U.K. The invasion was slated to

    begin the first week of September if Milosevic had not

    pulled his troops out of the province by then. It is

    unclear which other NATO countries were prepared to

    participate in the project. PM

    [20] ALBANIA PRAISES MACEDONIAN PLEDGE ON UNIVERSITY

    The Albanian

    government issued a statement on 16 July saying that the

    Macedonian government's recent decision to grant "permission

    to open a university in the Albanian language shows a

    willingness [by the Macedonian government] to overcome

    problems and help our relations grow," Reuters reported (see

    "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 July 1999). FS

    [21] ALBANIAN DEMOCRATS END PARLIAMENTARY BOYCOTT

    Delegates at

    an extraordinary congress of the Democratic Party (PD) in

    Tirana on 17 July voted unanimously to end the party's 10-

    month boycott of the parliament, Reuters reported. Party

    leader Sali Berisha told the delegates: "Fulfilling the

    request of the U.S. government to return to parliament is

    the least we could do after all that they did for

    Albanians," by which he meant the U.S.'s involvement in

    Kosova. Berisha pledged to propose making U.S. President

    Bill Clinton an honorary citizen of Albania. He added that

    "the Democratic Party commits itself to creating a new

    political climate where nobody will be excluded anymore."

    The Democrats launched a parliamentary boycott after the

    killing of PD legislator Azem Hajdari in September 1998.

    They charged the Socialist-led government with being behind

    the murder. FS

    [22] ALBANIA EXPELS TERRORISM SUSPECTS

    Tirana Police Chief

    Mithat Havari told Reuters on 17 July that police the

    previous day expelled two Syrian brothers--identified as

    Abdyl and Osama Naem--and Iraqi citizen Muhamed Jasim.

    Havari said that the three did not have "proper" documents.

    He did not provide other details. "Koha Jone" reported that

    the three were arrested early on 16 July and immediately

    expelled by plane to Athens. The daily suggested that the

    three were suspected agents of indicted Saudi terrorist

    Osama Bin Laden. They worked for an Islamic charity

    organization in Albania. Police had arrested two of them in

    February, but a Tirana court released them in early July

    for lack of evidence. In related news, Pentagon spokesman

    Army Lieutenant-Colonel Steve Campbell told Reuters in

    Washington on 17 July that security reasons were only "a

    secondary reason" for U.S. Secretary of Defense William

    Cohen to cancel his scheduled visit to Tirana on 13 July.

    FS

    [23] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION CRITICIZES SENTENCING OF GENERALS

    The

    Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) on 16 July said

    it is "concerned" that the sentencing of generals Victor

    Stanculescu and Mihai Chitac (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 July

    1999) reflects a "dangerous precedent" and was the outcome of

    pressure exercised on the judiciary by the ruling coalition

    parties. PDSR deputy chairman Adrian Nastase on 18 July said

    the generals are "just the first two victims" of a "political

    war" launched under "a scenario" whose ultimate targets are

    former President Ion Iliescu and Petre Roman, who served as

    premier after the 1989 revolution, Mediafax reported. The

    Defense Ministry on 16 July said it will appeal the decision

    of the court ordering the ministry to pay damages to those

    wounded in Timisoara and to the relatives of those killed in

    December 1989. MS

    [24] ROMANIAN POLITICIANS PLAY 'MUSICAL PARTY CHAIRS'

    Mircea

    Cosea, deputy chairman of the Alliance for Romania Party

    (APR), has been elected deputy chairman of the Rightist Union

    Forces (UFD) at an UFD extraordinary congress, RFE/RL's

    Bucharest bureau reported on 17 June. Cosea said his decision

    to join the UFD stemmed from ideological reasons and that the

    APR is gradually abandoning its "liberal" persuasion in favor

    of a Social Democratic orientation. Also, the UFD congress

    elected to the UFD Standing Committee former Privatization

    Minister Valentin Ionescu and Emil Tocaci, both of whom last

    month resigned from their parties--the National Peasant Party

    Christian Democratic and National Liberal Party,

    respectively--to join the UFD. MS

    [25] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT SATISFIED WITH KYIV SUMMIT

    Petru

    Lucinschi, returning from the Kyiv summit on 17 July (see

    above), said the meeting "marked an important step toward a

    final settlement of the Transdniester conflict," RFE/RL's

    Chisinau bureau reported. Lucinschi said that "for the first

    time" the two conflicting sides had agreed on the

    "principles" that must guide the resolution of the conflict--

    namely the formation of single "economic, judicial, and

    social space within Moldova's existing borders, recognized by

    the international community." He said it is now up to experts

    from the two sides to work out how to implement these

    principles. Lucinschi praised the "constructive position" of

    the Russian, Ukrainian, and OSCE mediators, saying that

    Russian Premier Sergei Stepashin has "confirmed the

    intention...to proceed with the withdrawal of armament and

    troops" from Moldovan territory. MS

    [26] MOLDOVA TO SETTLE ROMANIAN DEBT WITH COMPANY SHARES

    Romanian

    Trade and Industry Minister Radu Berceanu on 16 July said a

    consortium formed by the Petrom company and other Romanian

    companies will take over 51 percent of the shares of the

    Moldovan Tirex-Petrol company in exchange for Chisinau's more

    than $5 million debt to Romania for electricity supplies,

    Romanian Radio reported. The parliament in Chisinau on 15

    July approved legislation writing off Tirex-Petrol's debt to

    the state budget and transferring a majority stake to the

    Romanian side in exchange for the debt cancellation. MS

    [27] BULGARIA TO OFFER TRANSIT RIGHTS TO RUSSIAN KFOR TROOPS

    Foreign Minister Nadezhda Mihailova on 17 July told the

    private Darik Radio that "in the next few days" Bulgaria will

    offer land transit rights to Russian KFOR troops, similar to

    those offered to other states contributing to the

    peacekeeping force in Kosova, BTA reported. In the same

    interview, Mihailova said Bulgaria is already a "successful

    Balkan model of political stability and multi-ethnic

    relations" and "we hope that very soon we shall also be a

    successful economic model as well." She added that what Sofia

    expects from the EU "is not praise and kind words, but an

    invitation to start accession talks." MS


    [C] END NOTE

    [28] A NEVER-ENDING UNIFICATION STORY

    by Jan Maksymiuk

    Russian Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin announced on 5

    July that Russia will sign a treaty with Belarus this fall,

    allowing the two countries "to enter the 21st century as a

    union-state." For those who may have lost count of Russian-

    Belarusian integration initiatives, this will be the third

    major agreement on a single Russian-Belarusian state. The

    first was signed in April 1996, the second one year later, in

    April 1997. There are many signs that this year's proposed

    document--heralded by Belarusian President Alyaksandr

    Lukashenka and Russian President Boris Yeltsin in a joint

    declaration on 25 December 1998--will not be the ultimate

    unification pact either.

    Stepashin's pledge of quicker unification was preceded

    by attempted blackmail on the part of the Belarusian

    president. Addressing the 2 July session of the Belarusian-

    Russian Parliamentary Assembly in Minsk, Lukashenka

    threatened to seek rapprochement with the West if Russia

    continued to drag its feet on a closer union with his

    country. Following consultations with Yeltsin, Stepashin

    hastened to assure Lukashenka that the treaty will be ready

    within a month and will not be of simply a "declarative

    character."

    As for Lukashenka's threat to repair relations with the

    West, Stepashin commented: "We would welcome that [move], and

    a union between Russia and Belarus should not in any case

    stand as an obstacle to creating a unified Europe." Both

    Yeltsin and Stepashin are perfectly aware that, as one

    Russian newspaper put it, "there is no way to the West" for

    Lukashenka.

    Lukashenka's attempt at blackmailing Russia is rather a

    sign of his weakness and frustration as his presidency nears

    the completion of its fifth year on 20 July 1999. European

    democracies have not recognized Belarus's 1996 controversial

    referendum, by means of which Lukashenka extended his

    presidential term until 2001. So far, he has not appeared to

    pay much attention to what the West thinks about his

    legitimacy after 20 July. Rather, he seems to have scented

    another danger: What if Moscow strongmen--embroiled in their

    intricate wars for power--begin openly questioning his

    legitimacy and, consequently, his right to sign any

    interstate documents? Such a turn of events cannot be ruled

    out as Russia nears parliamentary elections in December and

    presidential elections next year.

    There has been much speculation in the Russian media

    that Yeltsin is willing to repeat the "Milosevic scenario" in

    order to stay in power beyond 2000. The creation of the

    Russian-Belarusian union could serve Yeltsin's political

    longevity in the Kremlin in the same way as the 1994 creation

    of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia helped Serbian

    President Slobodan Milosevic remain at the helm in Belgrade

    as the head of the unified state of Serbia and Montenegro.

    Lukashenka is ready to accept Yeltsin as the union

    president provided that he himself is given the post of vice

    president. However, Kremlin planners have not envisaged any

    union presidency or common government. And what is more

    important, even such staunch proponents of Russian-Belarusian

    integration as Russian State Duma Chairman Gennadii Seleznev,

    Communist Party leader Gennadii Zyuganov, and Moscow Mayor

    Yurii Luzhkov have not insisted on the introduction of a

    union presidency. This should be taken by Lukashenka as a

    disappointing, if not alarming, state of affairs: Russian

    political elites have so far not devised any major role for

    him in the struggle for power in Russia. Moreover, it is

    unclear whether they ever intended to.

    Yeltsin recently announced that he is ready to step down

    when his terms expires next year. Whether or not that is

    true, he may at least be willing to wait to take a final

    decision until after Russia's parliamentary elections in

    December. If the elections suggest that his preferred

    candidate will win the presidential race next year, he will

    most likely leave the political scene, placing the future of

    further integration with Belarus into the hands of his

    successor. If not, a "union option" that would prolong his

    rule might be used by him in earnest. In any case, no one

    should expect a treaty this fall that would allow Lukashenka

    to obtain the real levers of power in Russia.

    Lukashenka recently declared that he will not accept a

    non-presidential power structure in the union-state. But it

    seems he will have no choice. If he refuses to sign another

    watered-down union treaty proposed by Moscow, he will find

    himself on the sidelines of the integration process, which he

    has so ardently championed. What is more, he may well find

    himself on the sidelines of all politics. Neglecting and even

    rejecting normal relations with Western democracies, he has

    become hostage to his one-sided policy of rapprochement with

    Russia. On the other hand, if he signs such a treaty, he will

    hardly get what he wants--namely, more power and more Russian

    resources to bail out the sinking Belarusian economy.

    "From the very beginning [of his term], Lukashenka was

    nothing more than a puppet.... The real power was in the

    hands of the puppeteer behind the screen. The only person who

    could allow himself [to move the puppet] was Boris Yeltsin

    with his family," the Belarusian independent weekly "Nasha

    Niva" commented on 28 June. That comment appears all the more

    bitter in light of the fact that most Belarusians still show

    no tendency or desire to stop being entertained in such a

    way.

    19-07-99


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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