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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 219, 99-11-10

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 219, 10 November 1999


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] TALKS ON NEW ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT DEADLOCKED?
  • [02] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT ALLOWS DEPUTY'S ARREST IN CONNECTION WITH
  • [03] KAZAKHSTAN ROCKET LAUNCH BAN MAY AFFECT INTERNATIONAL SPACE
  • [04] KAZAKHSTAN ADOPTS NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
  • [05] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT NAMES NEW TOP SECURITY OFFICIAL
  • [06] KYRGYZSTAN DENIES THEFT OF HOSTAGES' RANSOM
  • [07] TAJIK NATIONAL RECONCILIATION COMMISSION RECONVENES
  • [08] TAJIK OPPOSITION LEADER OPTIMISITIC
  • [09] ANOTHER TAJIK DEFENSE MINISTRY OFFICIAL MURDERED
  • [10] UZBEKISTAN, CHINA SIGN LOAN AGREEMENT

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [11] SERBIAN POLICE BEAT DEMONSTRATORS
  • [12] DRASKOVIC BACKERS WALK OUT OF SERBIAN LEGISLATURE...
  • [13] ...ARE SKEPTICAL ON REGIME'S ATTITUDE TOWARD ELECTIONS
  • [14] MILOSEVIC MEETS WITH RUSSIAN DIPLOMAT
  • [15] CHURCH DESTROYED BY FIRE IN KOSOVA
  • [16] ARTEMIJE APPEALS TO SERBIAN REFUGEES
  • [17] MACEDONIA POSTS REWARD IN GLIGOROV CASE
  • [18] PRIME MINISTER SAYS CROATIAN GOVERNMENT FUNCTIONING
  • [19] CROATIAN BISHOP WARNS AGAINST ISOLATION
  • [20] BOSNIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES MEASURE ON CORRUPTION
  • [21] OSCE APPEALS TO BOSNIAN JOURNALISTS
  • [22] ROW OVER BOSNIAN SERB TELEVISION CHIEF
  • [23] ROMANIAN SENATE APPROVES LAND RESTITUTION BILL
  • [24] ROMANIAN GOVERNMENT ENDORSES BRASOV AGREEMENT
  • [25] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT CALLS PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER
  • [26] EU WILL HELP BULGARIA MEET COSTS FOR NUCLEAR PLANT SHUTDOWN

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [27] FOUR YEARS AFTER ERDUT, EASTERN SLAVONIA CONTINUES TO LAG

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] TALKS ON NEW ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT DEADLOCKED?

    President Robert

    Kocharian and Prime Minister Aram Sargsian have agreed that

    the security portfolios in the new cabinet should go to

    career professionals with no political affiliation, but they

    still disagree over the future of Vahan Shirkhanian, who is

    minister for industrial infrastructures in the outgoing

    cabinet, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 9 November

    quoting a source close to the Armenian government. A former

    deputy defense minister, Shirkhanian was close to murdered

    Premier Vazgen Sargsian (Aram's elder brother). Kocharian

    reportedly opposes his being given a new cabinet post. The

    disagreement over Shirkhanian is reportedly delaying the

    announcement of the composition of the new cabinet, which is

    expected this week. The current ministers dealing with

    economic issues will remain in their posts to underscore the

    government's continued commitment to market reforms, the

    source said. LF

    [02] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT ALLOWS DEPUTY'S ARREST IN CONNECTION WITH

    SHOOTINGS

    Deputies voted on 10 November to lift the immunity

    of independent legislator Mushegh Movsisian, who can now be

    charged with involvement in the 27 October shootings of Prime

    Minister Vazgen Sargsian and seven others, RFE/RL's Yerevan

    bureau reported. Prosecutor-General Aghvan Hovsepian told the

    parliament that the leader of the five gunmen who committed

    the killings implicated Movsisian, claiming that the latter

    began planning the murders last March. Movsisian has denied

    any involvement in the killings. Ten people have now been

    detained in connection with the murders, according to Noyan

    Tapan on 9 March. LF

    [03] KAZAKHSTAN ROCKET LAUNCH BAN MAY AFFECT INTERNATIONAL SPACE

    STATION

    Nurlan Utembaev, who is deputy head of Kazakhstan's

    National Space Committee, told Reuters in Almaty on 9

    November that the temporary ban on launches of Russian Proton

    rockets from the Baikonur cosmodrome in central Kazakhstan

    may delay the launch of a module that is to form part of new

    International space station. That launch is scheduled for

    December or January. Utembaev said the ban on Proton rocket

    launches could be lifted "fairly soon" after completion of

    the investigation into the explosion of a Proton rocket

    shortly after blastoff on 27 October. But Meirbek Moldabekov,

    who is director of Kazakhstan's Space Agency, said that no

    Proton launches will be allowed before February or March, AP

    reported on 9 November, citing Interfax. Also on 9 November,

    Kazakhstan's Foreign Minister Erlan Idrisov told RFE/RL

    correspondents that Kazakhstan will demand substantial

    financial compensation from Russia for the 27 October

    disaster. He said that Russia receives $70-90 million for

    each commercial Proton rocket launch, whereas all Kazakhstan

    gets is ecological damage. LF

    [04] KAZAKHSTAN ADOPTS NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

    President

    Nursultan Nazarbaev chaired a session of the National

    Security Council on 9 November that adopted a new national

    security strategy for the period until 2005, Interfax

    reported. That document identifies the most serious short-

    and long-term threats to the country in the foreign,

    military, economic, political, social, environmental, and

    information spheres. Journalists were not admitted to the

    session, RFE/RL's Astana bureau reported. LF

    [05] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT NAMES NEW TOP SECURITY OFFICIAL

    Askar Akaev

    on 9 November appointed 56-year-old Tashtemir Aitbaev as

    minister of national security, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau

    reported. A former Kirghiz Komsomol first secretary, Aitbaev

    served as deputy KGB chairman and then as a Kirghiz Communist

    Party Central Committee secretary in the late 1980s. In that

    latter capacity, he expressed support for the unsuccessful

    August 1991 putsch. Aitbaev replaces Misir Ashirkulov, who

    was named on 5 November to head the presidential

    administration. Akaev on 9 November also named Tilekmek

    Meimanaliev Minister of Health Care and appointed Colonel

    Anarbek Shamkeev commander of the Interior Ministry forces.

    The previous commander resigned in September after he was

    taken hostage and then released by ethnic Uzbek guerrillas in

    southern Kyrgyzstan. LG

    [06] KYRGYZSTAN DENIES THEFT OF HOSTAGES' RANSOM

    An unidentified

    spokesman for the Kyrgyz presidential administration denied

    on 9 November Japanese media reports that Kyrgyz and Tajik

    officials embezzled part of the multi-million dollar ransom

    allegedly paid by the Japanese government to secure the

    release of four Japanese geologists taken hostage in southern

    Kyrgyzstan in August, ITAR-TASS reported. Japan's "Mainichi

    Shimbun" on 9 November had claimed that Tokyo paid $3 million

    under the guise of Official Development Assistance to ransom

    the four hostages, according to dpa. In Dushanbe,

    Tajikistan's Minister for Emergency Situations Mirzo Zieyev,

    who helped negotiate the hostages' release, told Reuters that

    "as a Muslim" the leader of the guerrillas who seized the

    hostages freed them "without asking for or receiving any

    money." LF

    [07] TAJIK NATIONAL RECONCILIATION COMMISSION RECONVENES

    The

    Commission for National Reconciliation convened on 9 November

    to discuss the work of its joint committees charged with

    drafting legislation on the media and the conduct of

    parliamentary elections scheduled for February, Asia Plus-

    Blitz reported. The United Tajik Opposition (UTO) had

    suspended its participation in the work of the commission on

    18 October to protest the authorities' refusal to convene an

    emergency parliamentary session to debate deliberate

    obstruction of opposition candidates' efforts to register as

    candidates for the 6 November presidential poll (see "RFE/RL

    Newsline," 18 October 1999). LF

    [08] TAJIK OPPOSITION LEADER OPTIMISITIC

    UTO leader Said Abdullo

    Nuri told journalists in Dushanbe on 9 November that although

    the opposition formally withdrew its boycott of the 6

    November presidential poll, its members did not vote for

    opposition candidate Davlat Usmon because his candidacy was

    illegal, ITAR-TASS reported. Nuri expressed relief that the

    poll did not exacerbate tensions and that the Tajik

    leadership acceded to what he termed the opposition's "fair

    demands." Nuri and incumbent President Imomali Rakhmonov

    signed a protocol on 5 November containing political

    guarantees related to the preparations for and conduct of the

    February parliamentary elections. LF

    [09] ANOTHER TAJIK DEFENSE MINISTRY OFFICIAL MURDERED

    A

    lieutenant-colonel with the Tajik Defense Ministry was shot

    dead in a Dushanbe suburb late on 8 November, Reuters and AP

    reported the following day. It was the second such murder of

    a military official in less than a month (see "RFE/RL

    Newsline," 18 October 1999). LF

    [10] UZBEKISTAN, CHINA SIGN LOAN AGREEMENT

    China will advance an

    $11 million loan to Uzbekistan under the terms of a framework

    agreement signed during President Islam Karimov's ongoing

    visit to China, ITAR-TASS reported on 9 November. Meeting

    that day with China's Foreign Trade Minister Shi Guangshen,

    Karimov called for expanded cooperation in the chemical,

    aircraft building, and light industry sectors. The annual

    trade turnover between the two countries totals $830 million,

    which Karimov termed insufficient. LF


    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [11] SERBIAN POLICE BEAT DEMONSTRATORS

    Police in Belgrade

    forcibly broke up a protest by the student opposition

    organization Otpor (Resistance) on 9 November, injuring about

    50 demonstrators, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The

    students want the resignation of Yugoslav President Slobodan

    Milosevic, early elections, and the repeal of legislation

    regulating universities and the media. Police prevented

    several buses from reaching the capital from elsewhere in

    Serbia. PM

    [12] DRASKOVIC BACKERS WALK OUT OF SERBIAN LEGISLATURE...

    Deputies

    belonging to Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO)

    walked out of the parliament on 9 November after legislators

    belonging to the governing coalition rejected a motion to

    investigate a mysterious car accident last month that left

    three of Draskovic's aides dead. Draskovic has called the

    accident an "assassination attempt" against him staged by the

    authorities (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 October 1999). PM

    [13] ...ARE SKEPTICAL ON REGIME'S ATTITUDE TOWARD ELECTIONS

    Before the SPO deputies walked out of the parliament, the

    legislature approved an opposition motion to discuss early

    general elections. SPO legislator Milan Mikovic said,

    however, that "it's a tactical maneuver [on the part of the

    governing coalition]. They are afraid of elections and have

    no real intention of holding them," the "Wall Street Journal

    Europe" reported. The legislature also began discussions of

    proposed changes in legislation regarding elections to local

    government posts. The opposition, which controls more than 30

    municipalities, is opposed to the proposed changes. PM

    [14] MILOSEVIC MEETS WITH RUSSIAN DIPLOMAT

    Sergei Lavrov, who is

    Russia's ambassador to the UN, discussed Kosova with

    Milosevic in Belgrade on 9 November. The two men agreed that

    UN resolution 1244 is the "sole document" regulating the

    affairs of the province. The resolution states that Kosova

    remains a part of Yugoslavia and of Serbia. They also agreed

    on the need to send Serbian forces back to Kosova, to ensure

    the return of all refugees, and to disarm remaining "armed

    formations" in the province. Western diplomats stopped

    meeting with Milosevic after the Hague-based war crimes

    tribunal indicted him in May for atrocities in Kosova. PM

    [15] CHURCH DESTROYED BY FIRE IN KOSOVA

    Unknown persons set fire

    to the Serbian Orthodox church in the village of Donji Zakut

    in the early hours of 9 November. KFOR troops previously

    maintained a 24-hour presence at the church but recently

    began to limit their role to occasional patrols in order to

    conserve manpower. PM

    [16] ARTEMIJE APPEALS TO SERBIAN REFUGEES

    In Belgrade, Archbishop

    Artemije and other leaders of Kosova's Serbian National

    Council urged some 100 Serbian refugees from the province to

    return to their homes. Artemije stressed that the refugees

    must go back if a Serbian presence is to be maintained in

    Kosova. PM

    [17] MACEDONIA POSTS REWARD IN GLIGOROV CASE

    The government on 9

    November announced that it will pay up to $550,000 for

    information leading to the arrest of the persons who in

    October 1995 attempted to kill President Kiro Gligorov with a

    car bomb. Interior Minister Pavle Trajanov noted that "it's

    been four years since the attempt on President Gligorov's

    life, and the investigation has produced no result," AP

    reported. Gligorov lost an eye and suffered extensive damage

    to his face in the explosion. He will leave office following

    the election of his successor on 14 November. PM

    [18] PRIME MINISTER SAYS CROATIAN GOVERNMENT FUNCTIONING

    'NORMALLY'

    Speaking in Zagreb on 9 November, Zlatko Matesa

    denied rumors that the government is unable to function

    because President Franjo Tudjman has been incapacitated.

    Matesa stressed that "everything is functioning completely

    normally," including the security services, "Jutarnji list"

    reported. The Zagreb daily added that Tudjman's doctors have

    stopped issuing daily reports on his condition. Observers

    note that the Croatian Constitution assigns 24 powers to the

    president that he cannot delegate to anyone else. These

    include key decision-making functions in military and

    security policy. The constitution is widely believed to have

    been written to guarantee Tudjman a commanding role in state

    affairs. His recent illness has led to much speculation as to

    what would happen if he were to die or become incapacitated

    (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 November 1999). PM

    [19] CROATIAN BISHOP WARNS AGAINST ISOLATION

    Archbishop Josip

    Bozanic told a meeting in Zagreb to discuss the Vatican's

    recent European Bishops' Conference that Croatia must remain

    "politically and psychologically" oriented toward Europe,

    "Jutarnji list" reported on 10 November. He warned that if

    Croats "close themselves off" from Europe, they will find

    themselves "back in the East." Bozanic also noted that the

    effects of communism on society have proven more deeply

    rooted and longer lasting than most people thought at the

    time the system collapsed. He added that the period of post-

    communist optimism is long past. Observers note that some

    elements in the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) have

    reacted to frequent criticism of its policies by the EU and

    OSCE by expressing the view that Croatia does not need to

    take European views into account. PM

    [20] BOSNIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES MEASURE ON CORRUPTION

    The

    legislature on 9 November approved a comprehensive anti-

    corruption plan put forward by the international community's

    Wolfgang Petritsch. Measures include establishing an

    independent judiciary, setting up tighter border controls,

    and making a survey of the change in officials' wealth

    between 1992 and the present, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

    reported. Observers note that corruption is rampant

    throughout Bosnia and is widely seen as a major stumbling

    block to post-war reconstruction and development. PM

    [21] OSCE APPEALS TO BOSNIAN JOURNALISTS

    The office of the OSCE

    in Sarajevo called upon all journalists to report to the

    organization any threats that they may have received,

    RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 9 November. Reports

    will be treated as confidential. The move comes after several

    violent attacks on journalists. PM

    [22] ROW OVER BOSNIAN SERB TELEVISION CHIEF

    The Bosnian Serb

    parliament will soon discuss the controversy over the

    government's decision to replace Andjelko Kozomara with

    Slavisa Sabljic as head of Radio Television of the Republika

    Srpska (RTRS), "Oslobodjenje" reported on 10 November. Prime

    Minister Milorad Dodik says that he sacked Kozomara because

    he has become politically too close to Milosevic. Petritsch's

    spokesmen argue that Dodik has no right to make changes in

    the administration of RTRS and that Kozomara has not allowed

    his personal views to affect program content, "Oslobodjenje"

    and "Vesti" reported on 9 November. In related news,

    "Jutarnji list" wrote on 10 November that Tudjman's top aide

    Ivic Pasalic is seeking to "build up a media empire" in

    Bosnia. Pasalic is one of the most prominent Herzegovinian

    Croats in the Zagreb power structure. PM

    [23] ROMANIAN SENATE APPROVES LAND RESTITUTION BILL

    The Senate on

    9 November approved by a vote of 89 to 12 with 27 abstentions

    a bill providing for the restitution to former owners of up

    to 50 hectares of farmland and 10 hectares of forest

    confiscated by the communist regime, RFE/RL's Bucharest

    bureau reported. The Chamber of Deputies passed the law

    earlier this year in a version that provided for the

    restitution of up to 30 hectares of forest. A bicameral

    commission will now mediate to decide on a final version of

    the law. MS

    [24] ROMANIAN GOVERNMENT ENDORSES BRASOV AGREEMENT

    The cabinet on

    9 November approved the main points of an agreement reached

    one day earlier between its representatives and unions

    representing workers at the Roman truckmaker in Brasov,

    RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9

    November 1999). The cabinet did not approve that part of the

    agreement that provides for granting workers tax exemptions

    and financial bonuses. It also rejected the demand to raise

    salaries, dismiss managers, and revise layoff plans. AP

    reported from Brasov that union leaders accuse the government

    of fomenting tension by dispatching riot police to the town.

    Meanwhile, thousands of students resumed protests in

    Bucharest and other Romanian cities to push their demands for

    higher grants and better living conditions in dormitories. MS

    [25] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT CALLS PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER

    'IRRESPONSIBLE'

    Petru Lucinschi told journalists on 9

    November that parliamentary chairman Dumitru Diacov is

    "irresponsible," RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. Lucinschi

    was responding to Diacov's statement earlier that day

    accusing Lucinschi of having "provoked" the government crisis

    "in order to impose a state of emergency in the country and

    hold early parliamentary elections." He also rejected

    Diacov's accusation that he is responsible for the split in

    the For a Democratic and Prosperous Moldova Bloc, saying "not

    me, but Dumitru Diacov promoted the split...by exercising

    pressure [on deputies] to force them to vote" the way Diacov

    wanted. Also on 9 November, the World Bank followed the lead

    of the IMF by announcing it is suspending credits to Moldova

    owing to the parliament's refusal to approve the laws on the

    privatization of wineries and the tobacco industry. MS

    [26] EU WILL HELP BULGARIA MEET COSTS FOR NUCLEAR PLANT SHUTDOWN

    Guenter Verheugen, EU commissioner in charge of expansion,

    said the EU will help Bulgaria meet the costs for shutting

    down the four aging nuclear reactors at Kozloduy. In a video-

    recorded address to participants in an international meeting

    in Sofia on 9 November, Verheugen said the EU is prepared to

    finance the modernization of the two units that went on line

    in 1989, but he added that the older four reactors "cannot be

    brought up to Western safety standards at reasonable costs."

    He also said democracy has been "firmly established in

    Bulgaria" and the country has made "sustained progress" in

    bringing its legislation into line with the EU's. There has

    been progress toward establishing a functioning market

    economy, but Bulgaria has yet to complete privatization,

    bring accounting and taxation up to EU standards, and develop

    a "stable environment" for business, AP reported. MS


    [C] END NOTE

    [27] FOUR YEARS AFTER ERDUT, EASTERN SLAVONIA CONTINUES TO LAG

    by Christopher Walker

    When the Erdut Agreement was signed four years ago, much

    of Eastern Slavonia was unsure whether to expect another

    round of bloodshed or an end to the violence that had plagued

    that region since 1991. The regional capital of Osijek

    remained garrisoned--store windows were taped and buildings

    barricaded with wood planks and sandbags against possible

    attack from the Serbian forces that held positions across the

    Drava River. After Croatia declared independence from the

    Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in June 1991,

    Serbian rebel forces had seized about 30 percent of Croatian

    territory, including a large portion of Eastern Slavonia.

    The agreement reached in Erdut, a small village on the

    bank of the River Danube, brought to an end the fighting over

    the last Serb-held area in Croatia and provided the framework

    for the peaceful return of that territory to Croatian

    administration.

    In fact, the agreement, which was concluded during the

    Dayton negotiations on Bosnia-Herzegovina, set out ambitious

    settlement terms for Eastern Slavonia (and the regions of

    Baranja and Western Sirmium). It provided for a United

    Nations Transitional Administration (UNTAES) to oversee the

    reintegration of the region into the Republic of Croatia as

    well as functioning as an interim political authority,

    supervising the return of refugees, organizing elections,

    training a police force, and demilitarizing the Serbian

    rebels who had gained control of Eastern Slavonia. The two-

    year mandate of UNTAES expired in January 1998.

    However, the passage of four years since the cessation

    of hostilities has neither eased the raw feelings that exist

    between Croats and Serbs in the region nor enabled Eastern

    Slavonia to restore its hobbled economy to its pre-conflict

    status.

    In fact, the legacy of the conflict and the embittered

    atmosphere that persists threaten to keep Eastern Slavonia in

    the same chronically impoverished state as plagues other war-

    torn ex-Yugoslav territories, including Bosnia-Herzegovina,

    Kosova, and Serbia.

    Nevenka Cuckovic of the Zagreb-based Institute for

    International Relations observes that Eastern Slavonia has

    "remained economically depressed and not much progress has

    been achieved in the last three or four years. The [Croatian]

    government started many programs, but the [effort to build]

    housing and infrastructure reconstruction prevailed in all

    initiatives, while neglecting economic restructuring,

    privatization and business start-ups."

    The outbreak of war eight years ago disrupted trade and

    supply routes. Traditional regional economic links remain

    frayed to this day. Local business people complain that the

    region has been unable to shake the image it has acquired

    over the years--namely one of on-and-off fighting. Moreover,

    the post-conflict period has been marked by tense inter-

    ethnic relations, economic stagnation, and substantial

    population shifts.

    With regard to refugees and the internally displaced,

    the Erdut Agreement provides for facilitating the return of

    those people "under secure conditions, assuring them the same

    rights as all other residents." This task has proven very

    difficult.

    A report published by Human Rights Watch earlier this

    year concluded that the "exodus of [Eastern Slavonia's] Serbs

    calls into question the success of the UNTAES mission beyond

    peaceful reintegration into the territory" of the Republic of

    Croatia. On this same subject, the OSCE has been critical of

    the lack of political will shown by Croatian authorities in

    upholding basic rights of the Serbian minority. This exodus

    has been just one in a series of population transfers in the

    region involving Serbs and Croats alike. This phenomenon is

    of course not specific to Eastern Slavonia. Real or perceived

    concerns about personal security, discrimination by local

    authorities, and miserable economic prospects are common to

    all parts of the former Yugoslavia that have experienced

    violent conflict.

    To add to the region's woes, much-needed international

    assistance has been stretched to its limits by the onset of

    new crises. Over the course of this decade, assistance flows

    have been subject to the demands of successive conflicts,

    each fresh conflict more serious than the previous one. In

    1991, world attention was focused on Kosova, where Slobodan

    Milosevic--then in power for less than two years--was

    stepping up his repression of ethnic Albanians in Serbia's

    southernmost province. Events in Eastern Slavonia in late

    1991, punctuated by the horrors in Vukovar, then diverted

    attention from Kosova. Ironically, eight years later,

    Croatian officials point out that Kosova--as well as Bosnia--

    has absorbed critical aid that could otherwise have been used

    in Eastern Slavonia.

    In addition, the Kosova war has had a spillover effect

    on the region. Cuckovic notes that "NATO intervention also

    hurt legal economic entities in Eastern Slavonia, while the

    informal [gray] economy was flourishing during the conflict."

    Eastern Slavonia is just one small piece of the damaged

    fabric of the former Yugoslavia. Sadly, as the case in most

    of the other conflict-ridden areas in the Balkans, few

    observers are bullish on the region's prospects for renewal

    in the short term. For the time being, conditions in Eastern

    Slavonia will continue to suggest a cessation of hostilities

    rather than an enduring peace.

    The author is a New York-based analyst specializing in

    Eastern European affairs (intrel@aol.com)

    10-11-99


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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