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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 141, 00-07-25

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 141, 25 July 2000


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] U.S. TO PROVIDE ARMENIA WITH BORDER CONTROL EQUIPMENT
  • [02] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION SETS CONDITIONS FOR ELECTION
  • [03] ...APPEALS TO COUNCIL OF EUROPE
  • [04] U.S. EXPRESSES CONCERN OVER AZERBAIJANI ELECTION
  • [05] AZERBAIJAN'S CENTRAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION DECIDES TO ALLOW
  • [06] GERMAN OIL COMPANY'S OFFICE SEALED IN AZERBAIJAN
  • [07] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT DEFENDS SIGNING OF CONTROVERSIAL ABKHAZ
  • [08] ...AS DISPLACED PERSONS DEMAND REPRESENTATION AT PEACE
  • [09] OIL CONSORTIUM RELEASES DATA ON KAZAKH OIL, GAS FIND
  • [10] TAJIK MINISTER EVALUATES CRIMES FIGURES
  • [11] TURKMENISTAN RULES OUT DISCUSSION OF CASPIAN AT CIS SUMMIT

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [12] YUGOSLAV ARMY CLOSES MONTENEGRIN-ALBANIAN FRONTIER
  • [13] MONTENEGRIN PRIME MINISTER SAYS ARMY NOT 'LEGITIMATE'
  • [14] KOSOVA LEADERS CALL FOR END TO VIOLENCE
  • [15] BELGRADE SEEKS TO PREVENT SERBS FROM REGISTERING IN KOSOVA
  • [16] PANIC SEES INDEPENDENT EX-YUGOSLAV REPUBLICS TOGETHER IN
  • [17] SERBIAN JOURNALIST GOES ON TRIAL FOR 'ESPIONAGE'
  • [18] RFE/RL JOURNALISTS: 'WE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK'
  • [19] MILOSEVIC FOR ANOTHER NINE YEARS?
  • [20] SERBIAN COMPANIES WANT EU TO TAKE THEM OFF 'WHITE LIST'
  • [21] EVICTIONS OF MUSLIMS BEGIN AMID TIGHT SECURITY
  • [22] MUSLIM, U.S. OFFICIALS CONDEMN ARSON IN SREBRENICA
  • [23] CROATIAN PRIME MINISTER TO BOSNIA
  • [24] NO BAILOUT FOR CROATIAN SOCCER CLUBS
  • [25] PROSECUTORS QUESTION FORMER ROMANIAN PREMIER OVER YUGOSLAV
  • [26] FORMER ROMANIAN PRESIDENT REJECTS POSTPONEMENT OF
  • [27] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT TO PROMULGATE PARLIAMENTARY REPUBLIC
  • [28] TRANSDNIESTER GROUP DECLARES ITSELF BRANCH OF RUSSIA'S UNITY

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [29] WHY THE WEST DOESN'T AND WON'T INVEST IN RUSSIA

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] U.S. TO PROVIDE ARMENIA WITH BORDER CONTROL EQUIPMENT

    Under

    an agreement signed in Washington on 24 July by U.S.

    Secretary of Defense William Cohen and visiting Armenian

    Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian, the U.S. will provide

    Yerevan with $300,000 worth of equipment and training to

    improve customs and border controls, the FNS reported. The

    equipment includes devices to detect nuclear, chemical, and

    biological weapons or their components. AP quoted Sarkisian

    as saying that Yerevan expects to develop military-to-

    military relations with the U.S. once the Karabakh conflict

    is resolved. LF

    [02] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION SETS CONDITIONS FOR ELECTION

    PARTICIPATION...

    Twelve Azerbaijani opposition parties issued

    a joint statement in Baku on 24 July saying they will

    participate in the 5 November parliamentary poll only if the

    authorities amend the election law to conform with

    recommendations made by the OSCE's Office for Democratic

    Institutions and Human Rights, ITAR-TASS reported. Those

    amendments include changing the ratio of seats in the new

    parliament allocated under the majoritarian and the

    proportional systems from 100:25 to 75:50 and abolishing the

    restriction that allows only parties that were officially

    registered with the Ministry of Justice six months prior to

    the announcement of the election date to participate in the

    ballot. LF

    [03] ...APPEALS TO COUNCIL OF EUROPE

    Five opposition parties--the

    Azerbaijan Popular Front, the Azerbaijan National

    Independence Party, Musavat, the Democratic Party of

    Azerbaijan, and the Civil Solidarity Party--have written to

    Lord Russell Johnston, president of the Parliamentary

    Assembly of the Council of Europe, arguing that the law on

    elections signed on 5 July by President Heidar Aliev does not

    conform with the joint statement on democratization made to

    the Council of Europe in March by the Azerbaijani authorities

    and opposition, Turan reported. That statement included a

    commitment to holding elections in conformity with

    international standards. The opposition appealed to the PACE

    president to monitor more closely the Azerbaijani

    authorities' compliance with their commitments in that

    sphere. The Council of Europe voted last month to admit

    Azerbaijan to full membership (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 June

    2000). LF

    [04] U.S. EXPRESSES CONCERN OVER AZERBAIJANI ELECTION

    RESTRICTIONS

    In a statement released on 24 July, deputy U.S.

    State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said the U.S.

    "regrets" the 21 July decision by the Azerbaijani parliament

    to amend the law on the Central Electoral Commission to

    deprive the opposition of the power to influence decisions

    taken either by that body or its local equivalents, dpa

    reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 July 2000). Reeker said

    that move "raises questions about whether a fair and

    impartial vote count can be conducted" in the November poll.

    LF

    [05] AZERBAIJAN'S CENTRAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION DECIDES TO ALLOW

    ABSENTEE VOTING

    Azerbaijan's Central Electoral Commission

    decided on 24 July that Azerbaijani citizens living outside

    the country are eligible to cast their ballots in the 5

    November parliamentary poll, Turan reported. The six

    opposition representatives on the commission boycotted the

    session, which elected the commission's chairman and one of

    its two secretaries. LF

    [06] GERMAN OIL COMPANY'S OFFICE SEALED IN AZERBAIJAN

    Azerbaijani

    police on 23 July sealed the Baku office of the Wintershall

    oil company, Turan reported. The agency quoted a National

    Security Ministry spokesman as saying a statement clarifying

    the motives for that move will be issued "soon." Wintershall

    owns a 10 percent stake in the consortium formed in January

    1997 to exploit the Lenkoran-Talysh Deniz Caspian offshore

    oilfield. LF

    [07] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT DEFENDS SIGNING OF CONTROVERSIAL ABKHAZ

    PROTOCOL...

    Eduard Shevardnadze told journalists in Tbilisi

    on 24 July that he sees no alternative to a peaceful

    resolution of the Abkhaz conflict, Caucasus Press reported.

    But Shevardnadze added that he does not exclude the

    possibility that some unnamed factions may be preparing

    secretly to resolve the issue by force. Shevardnadze also

    said that there are no grounds to criticize Minister of State

    Gia Arsenishvili for putting his signature to the 11 July

    joint protocol on stabilization measures in the conflict

    zone. Representatives of the Georgian displaced persons from

    Abkhazia have criticized the article of that protocol that

    envisages legal measures against persons who advocate

    resolving the conflict by force (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17

    and 21 July 2000). LF

    [08] ...AS DISPLACED PERSONS DEMAND REPRESENTATION AT PEACE

    NEGOTIATIONS

    Meanwhile, the participants in a round-table

    discussion of ways to resolve the conflict have advocated

    that the displaced persons be represented in the ongoing

    peace process, Caucasus Press reported on 24 July. In a

    statement addressed to Shevardnadze, they argued that the

    negotiations currently in progress exacerbate tensions rather

    than contribute to a solution. LF

    [09] OIL CONSORTIUM RELEASES DATA ON KAZAKH OIL, GAS FIND

    The

    Offshore Kazakhstan International Operating Company (OKIOC),

    which is composed of nine international oil companies,

    officially confirmed on 24 July that its first test well has

    located substantial reserves of oil and gas at Kazakhstan's

    East Kashagan field, the "Wall Street Journal" reported.

    Kazakh officials have suggested that East Kashagan is one of

    the largest fields discovered in recent decades. An OKIOC

    spokesman said the oil is of good quality, although it

    contains some hydrogen sulfide. OKIOC will drill a second

    test well later this year. LF

    [10] TAJIK MINISTER EVALUATES CRIMES FIGURES

    Tajikistan's

    Interior Minister Khumdin Sharipov told a session of the

    ministry's board on 21 July that the percentage of crimes

    solved during the first six months of 2000 was up 7.1 percent

    on the corresponding period in 1999, Asia Plus-Blitz

    reported. The percentage of serious crimes solved rose by 6.7

    percent and economic crimes 15.6 percent. Police confiscated

    260 tons of contraband aluminum destined for illegal export

    and intercepted 600 kilograms of drugs, including 300

    kilograms of heroin. The published account of Sharipov's

    address did not reveal any comparative data on the number of

    crimes actually committed throughout Tajikistan. In Dushanbe,

    however, 2,565 crimes were committed between January and June

    2000, which is an increase of 295 over the first six months

    of the previous year, according to Interior Ministry data

    cited by Asia Plus-Blitz on 19 July. But at the same time,

    serious crimes fell by 22.1 percent. Sharipov nonetheless

    criticized the Dushanbe police force's failure to stem

    economic crime and drug-trafficking. LF

    [11] TURKMENISTAN RULES OUT DISCUSSION OF CASPIAN AT CIS SUMMIT

    Turkmenistan's Foreign Minister Boris Shikhmuradov said on 24

    July that his country will not take part in any discussion of

    Caspian issues to which Iran is not also invited, Russian

    agencies reported. At the same time, Shikhmuradov rejected

    the proposal floated by Russian diplomatic sources to convene

    a discussion of the Caspian, to which Iranian President

    Mohammad Khatami would be invited, during the October CIS

    summit in Minsk. Shikhmuradov said the Caspian issue is "too

    big" to be discussed at such a forum. He noted that

    Turkmenistan's President Saparmurat Niyazov has advocated

    convening a special summit of Caspian littoral states. LF


    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [12] YUGOSLAV ARMY CLOSES MONTENEGRIN-ALBANIAN FRONTIER

    Local

    Albanian police chief Zija Hasa said in Shkoder on 24 July

    that Yugoslav army troops have recently turned back at least

    300 Albanians at the Bozaj border crossing because they had

    no Yugoslav visas, which Hasa called "a pretext," Reuters

    reported. He said that the Yugoslav army recently increased

    its presence in the border area. Montenegrin and Albanian

    authorities previously agreed not to require visas for cross-

    border traffic. The Yugoslav embassy in Tirana, which

    normally issues visas, has been closed since 1998. In the

    Albanian capital, Foreign Ministry spokesman Sokol Gjoka said

    that "this is a closure of Montenegro to Albanians," adding

    that "Belgrade wants to keep fires burning in the Balkans."

    PM

    [13] MONTENEGRIN PRIME MINISTER SAYS ARMY NOT 'LEGITIMATE'

    Outspoken Deputy Prime Minister Dragisa Burzan told "Vijesti"

    of 25 July that the army has long ceased to be "legitimate."

    He said that Belgrade has used the army for the past two

    years to undermine the Montenegrin authorities. PM

    [14] KOSOVA LEADERS CALL FOR END TO VIOLENCE

    Meeting in

    Washington, several leading personalities from Kosova agreed

    on the need to halt all violence in the province. The leaders

    included Bishop Artemije, Father Sava, and Slavica Ristic

    from the Serbian community and Ibrahim Rugova and Hashim

    Thaci from the Albanians, the BBC's Serbian Service reported

    on 25 July. PM

    [15] BELGRADE SEEKS TO PREVENT SERBS FROM REGISTERING IN KOSOVA

    Jeff Fischer, who heads the OSCE's voter registration task

    force in Kosova, said that fewer than 1 percent of eligible

    Serbs registered to vote because the Belgrade authorities had

    pressured them not to do so. He added that the forms of

    intimidation included threats of legal prosecution should

    registered voters visit Serbia, arrest on espionage charges,

    possible violence, and suspension of pensions, London's "The

    Independent" reported on 25 July. Daan Everts, who is the

    OSCE's chief representative in Kosova, noted that "it is in

    the interest of [Yugoslav President Slobodan] Milosevic to

    suppress any involvement of the Serb community in Kosovo with

    the democratic process." Everts also noted that about 1

    million ethnic Albanians registered, which he called a

    "spectacular success." PM

    [16] PANIC SEES INDEPENDENT EX-YUGOSLAV REPUBLICS TOGETHER IN

    EUROPE

    Former Yugoslav Prime Minister Milan Panic told the

    Rijeka daily "Novi List" of 25 July that he strongly supports

    Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic, whom he called "our

    hope." Panic added that he favors independence for Kosova

    "but within a united Europe in which borders are no longer

    important. Now the most important issue is to get rid of the

    extremists on both sides" in that province. He predicted that

    bonds would become close between Serbia and Croatia once both

    join the EU because "they are more linked by love than by

    hate." PM

    [17] SERBIAN JOURNALIST GOES ON TRIAL FOR 'ESPIONAGE'

    The trial

    of Miroslav Filipovic for "espionage and spreading false

    news" began in a military court in Nis on 25 July, Reuters

    reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 June 2000). He works for

    the independent daily "Danas" and freelances for AFP and the

    London-based Institute for War and Peace Reporting. His

    lawyer has repeatedly stressed that Filipovic always signed

    all his articles, including those on military affairs and

    anti-military protests. Numerous international human rights

    and journalists' organizations have condemned the trial as a

    farce aimed at intimidating journalists. PM

    [18] RFE/RL JOURNALISTS: 'WE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK'

    Several

    correspondents for RFE/RL's South Slavic Service told a press

    conference in Nis that they will continue to do their jobs,

    despite recent threats from Yugoslav Information Minister

    Goran Matic against them (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 25 July

    2000). Belgrade bureau chief Milica Lucic-Cavic stressed that

    the real reason that the government opposes the station is

    that it is the foreign broadcaster with the largest audience

    in Serbia, namely 14 percent of the total population, "Danas"

    reported. She rejected Matic's charges that the station is a

    "propaganda arm" of U.S. foreign policy, adding that she and

    her colleagues do not consider themselves propagandists for

    anyone. PM

    [19] MILOSEVIC FOR ANOTHER NINE YEARS?

    Both houses of the federal

    parliament approved new electoral legislation on 24 July. The

    measures are aimed at bringing the law code into line with

    recent constitutional amendments designed to allow Milosevic

    to stay in office for eight more years after his current term

    ends in 2001 (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 11 July 2000).

    Opposition legislator Vladeta Jankovic told AP that the

    ruling parties are treating Milosevic like "a deity in

    primitive religions." Elsewhere, opposition leaders on 25

    July are discussing whether to participate in the widely

    expected elections and, if so, who will run against

    Milosevic. Recent polls show that he is the most popular

    single candidate, receiving the support of about 15 percent

    of respondents. Most leading opposition candidates stand at

    about 6 percent. Serbian polls usually show a large

    percentage of undecided respondents. PM

    [20] SERBIAN COMPANIES WANT EU TO TAKE THEM OFF 'WHITE LIST'

    Representatives of eight companies told the Belgrade Chamber

    of Commerce on 24 July that they want the EU to remove their

    names from its list of 189 companies exempt from sanctions

    lest they be regarded in Serbia as "NATO collaborators,"

    Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 July 2000). All

    eight companies have majority foreign capital, and some of

    them do much of their business with the EU. They are Pitura,

    Tehnogas, Milsped, Saga, VF-TEL-Siemens, Auto Nena, Korpus,

    and Petro-Farma. PM

    [21] EVICTIONS OF MUSLIMS BEGIN AMID TIGHT SECURITY

    Bosnian

    Muslim police, assisted by UN police and SFOR, began evicting

    Muslim squatters from Serbian homes in the Maglaj area on 24

    July (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 21 July 2000). Foreign

    Islamic fighters will be last of the squatters to be evicted,

    Reuters reported. One of the foreign-born men now married to

    a Bosnian wife said that he bought his house legally from a

    Serb and than many other ex-fighters have bought enough land

    in the area to build homes for "35 families." He stressed

    that he has no intention of giving up property that he

    legally owns. PM

    [22] MUSLIM, U.S. OFFICIALS CONDEMN ARSON IN SREBRENICA

    The U.S.

    embassy issued a statement on 24 July condemning the apparent

    arson attacks on three Muslim-owned homes in the Srebrenica

    area in the previous three days. The statement added that as

    a result of these incidents, "five houses [have been] burned

    in eight days, 10 in the past month," Reuters reported.

    Muslim Mayor Nesib Mandzic noted the attacks were meant to

    intimidate Muslims from going home, adding that in any case

    "we will continue with reconstruction and returns." PM

    [23] CROATIAN PRIME MINISTER TO BOSNIA

    Ivica Racan will arrive in

    Mostar on 27 July. His visit is aimed at underscoring the

    change in Croatia's Bosnian policy since the new government

    took office at the beginning of the year, "Jutarnji list"

    reported on 25 July. He will examine the ruins of the

    historical stone bridge that Croatian gunners destroyed in

    November 1993 and discuss Croatian aid in restoring it. PM

    [24] NO BAILOUT FOR CROATIAN SOCCER CLUBS

    Finance Minister Matko

    Crkvenac rejected a suggestion that the government write off

    $72 million in debts for four soccer clubs, RFE/RL's South

    Slavic Service reported from Zagreb on 24 July. The teams are

    Dinamo, Hajduk, Rijeka, and Osijek. Dinamo and Hajduk are

    bitter rivals and the two best-known teams in the country. PM

    [25] PROSECUTORS QUESTION FORMER ROMANIAN PREMIER OVER YUGOSLAV

    EMBARGO BREACH

    Nicolae Vacaroiu told prosecutors in

    Bucharest on 24 July that all Romanian oil exports to

    Yugoslavia in 1994-1995 complied with UN Security Council

    restrictions. He said those exports were intend to keep in

    operation Yugoslavia's power grid and its power plant at the

    Iron Gates along the River Danube. Vacaroiu said he has no

    knowledge of the 1,000 tanker trucks that departed from the

    western town of Jimbolia to Yugoslavia, RFE/RL's Bucharest

    bureau reported. His government had claimed at the time that

    only private individuals had engaged in oil smuggling, but

    media reports comment that 1,000 tanker trucks could not

    possibly have left the country without the authorities'

    knowledge. The investigation started in 1997, when Vacaroiu's

    cabinet was no longer in power. MS

    [26] FORMER ROMANIAN PRESIDENT REJECTS POSTPONEMENT OF

    ELECTIONS

    Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR)

    chairman Ion Iliescu on 24 July rejected the proposal that

    parliamentary elections scheduled for the fall be postponed

    for three months, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. The

    constitution provides for postponing general elections, but

    not the presidential ballot. Media outlets have proposed

    delaying the elections, suggesting that the election

    campaign would impede the parliamentary debate on the

    country's 2001 budget. Iliescu said he had written to

    Premier Mugur Isarescu warning against postponing the vote.

    He emphasized that the cabinet and the outgoing parliament

    have sufficient time to meet the 1 November deadline for

    the budget's approval. Greater Romania Party leader

    Corneliu Vadim Tudor also rejected the idea, while speakers

    for the ruling coalition were more ambivalent, saying there

    are grounds both to favor a postponement and to oppose it.

    MS

    [27] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT TO PROMULGATE PARLIAMENTARY REPUBLIC

    LAW

    Presidential spokesman Anatol Golea on 24 July told

    journalists that President Petru Lucinschi will promulgate

    "within a few days" the law transforming Moldova into a

    parliamentary republic. On 21 July, the legislature

    overrode Lucinschi's veto of the law, which means he must

    now sign the legislation within two weeks. Golea also said

    the parliament must debate by 13 January 2001 Lucinschi's

    initiative for holding a plebiscite on a law providing for

    the presidential powers to be increased. Lucinschi's

    mandate ends on 15 January 2001. MS

    [28] TRANSDNIESTER GROUP DECLARES ITSELF BRANCH OF RUSSIA'S UNITY

    PARTY

    A group of Transdniester businessmen have set up a

    branch of Russia's Unity party, a Tiraspol correspondent for

    the Flux agency reported on 24 July. Local media reports said

    Unity parliamentary group deputies in the Russian State Duma

    participated in the founding congress of Unity-Transdniester.

    The 322 delegates said Unity-Transdniester will form "a

    bridge between Moscow and Tiraspol." Tiraspol Supreme Soviet

    deputy Viktor Belitchenko appealed to the Russian guests to

    "show courage and recognize the Transdniester." The Duma

    deputies told the delegates that "Russians can now count on

    their country's help, no matter where they live." MS


    [C] END NOTE

    [29] WHY THE WEST DOESN'T AND WON'T INVEST IN RUSSIA

    By Victor Yasmann

    A new book entitled "Why Russia Is Not America," by

    Andrei Parshev, has caused a sensation among

    intellectuals in Moscow. Published by Moscow's pro-

    Communist publishing house "Krymskii-Most-9D" and on

    several Internet sites, it has been hotly discussed in

    Web forums ranging from the one maintained by liberal

    Anatolii Chubais to the "Moskovskii komsomolets"

    electronic club. It has also appeared on dozens of

    nationalist and anti-Western Websites.

    Parshev's book has attracted attention because the

    author considers Russian economic problems in terms of

    the paradigm of the emerging world market, something few

    other Russian writers have done. He begins by rejecting

    the ideas of nostalgic pro-Soviet economists who

    continue to believe in Russia's uniqueness as well as

    those of reformers who see Russia's problems in the

    incompleteness of its transition to capitalism.

    In fact, Parshev notes, both those groups assume

    that the West want to buy up Russian assets, which the

    first sees as something bad for Russia and the second as

    something very good. But they are both wrong, Parshev

    suggests. And he argues that Russian investors actually

    have little interest in making such purchases because

    Russian assets are mostly unprofitable.

    According to Parshev, the decisive indicator of the

    success potential of a national economy is the

    competitiveness of its goods and services, not their

    quality and certainly not their uniqueness. And this

    competitiveness is defined entirely by the ratio between

    the world price and the local production costs.

    Unfortunately for Russia, Parshev continues, those costs

    are far higher on its territory than those virtually

    anywhere else, reflecting the country's size and harsh

    climate.

    In this context, he cites the conclusions of

    Chubais's former deputy, Alfred Kokh, who said that

    foreign investors will find no profit in either the

    production or the export of Russia's mineral wealth:

    "For the West it is not profitable to recover oil in

    Siberia, as long as there is Kuwait. There you just moor

    a tanker at the seashore and you can pump the oil

    practically directly into it. Nor is it profitable to

    transport coal from the Kusbass, if it can be delivered

    by sea from Australia. There, coal deposits are located

    virtually on the shore so that you load the ship

    directly from coal conveyor."

    Kokh continues, "Timber is best obtained not from

    the Yenisei but from the Amazon, which does not freeze

    and provides better access.... Of cause if we recover

    all our resources and deliver them to the market, they

    will fetch the world price. But recovery and delivery of

    our natural resources cost more than anywhere else in

    the world... Our Western partners agree to use mines and

    oil fields founded in the Soviet era, but they are not

    willing to create new production facilities.

    Unfortunately, they are not fools. It is simply too

    expensive."

    Elsewhere in his book, Parshev cites the conclusion

    of liberal Russian economist Vladimir Anrianov that

    Russian industrial production costs are far higher than

    anywhere else: 2.8 times those of Japan, 2.7 times those

    of the United States, and 2.3 times those of Western

    European countries.

    Parshev then concludes that "we have nothing the

    West badly wants. Everything we have is either almost

    exhausted or separated from us, together with [Kazakh

    President Nursultan] Nazarbaev, or costs too much to

    recover. Those who think that our decline can be limited

    if we transform ourselves into a raw materials supplier

    to the West are incorrigible optimists."

    "Enough [of such] illusions, comrades patriots,"

    says Parshev. "We can exist as a source of raw materials

    only for another five to six years. But even our

    pensioners are planning to live a little longer than

    that."

    The author is a senior fellow with the American Foreign

    Policy Council, Washington DC.

    25-07-00


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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