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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 170, 00-09-04

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 170, 4 September 2000


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] ARMENIA, IRAN TO BEGIN GAS PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION
  • [02] DATE SET FOR TRIAL OF FORMER KARABAKH DEFENSE MINISTER
  • [03] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION PARTY LEADER DENIES INVOLVEMENT IN PLANE HIJACK
  • [04] SECOND CONSIGNMENT OF RUSSIAN MILITARY EQUIPMENT TO LEAVE GEORGIA
  • [05] GEORGIAN PRESS ANTICIPATES COUP IN PRESIDENT'S ABSENCE
  • [06] GEORGIAN DISPLACED PERSONS AIR GRIEVANCES
  • [07] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT CALLS FOR 'CONSOLIDATION'
  • [08] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY LEADER SENTENCED TO 16 YEARS IN PRISON
  • [09] KYRGYZ TROOPS REPEL NEW INCURSION
  • [10] TAJIK GOVERNMENT TROOPS CLASH WITH OPPOSITION FIGHTERS
  • [11] UKRAINE, TURKEY OFFER TO HELP COMBAT THREAT TO CENTRAL ASIA
  • [12] RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY SEES NO AGGRESSION IN CENTRAL ASIA
  • [13] PHOTOGRAPHER SHOT DEAD IN TAJIKISTAN
  • [14] TAJIK OFFICIAL SAYS CURRENCY 'STABLE'
  • [15] TURKMEN ENVOY CONTINUES AFGHAN MEDIATION MISSION
  • [16] NEW TURKMEN DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER APPOINTED
  • [17] DROUGHT COULD LEAD TO FAMINE, UNREST IN UZBEK REGION

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [18] OPPOSITION CANDIDATE CONFIDENT OF BEATING MILOSEVIC
  • [19] MILOSEVIC SUPPORTERS CLAIM BROAD SUPPORT AS WELL
  • [20] EU TO CHANGE POLICY ON SERBIA IF KOSTUNICA WINS
  • [21] MILOSEVIC SUPPORTERS RESIGN FROM STATE TV BOARD
  • [22] U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS SERBS IN KOSOVA SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO VOTE
  • [23] KOUCHNER ORDERS PROBE AFTER SERBS ESCAPE FROM JAIL IN KOSOVA
  • [24] KOSOVAR ALBANIANS REBURY MASSACRE VICTIMS
  • [25] CROATIAN PRESIDENT, PREMIER RECEIVE DEATH THREATS
  • [26] DOES CLINTON WANT KARADZIC AS GOING-AWAY PRESENT?
  • [27] ROMANIAN NATIONAL ALLIANCE ELECTS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
  • [28] ROMANIAN FINANCE MINISTER LAUNCHES NEW LIBERAL PARTY
  • [29] TRANSDNIESTER CELEBRATES 'INDEPENDENCE ANNIVERSARY'
  • [30] BULGARIA ACCUSES MACEDONIA OF OBSTRUCTING TRANSIT TO KOSOVA

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [31] ANOTHER BLOW TO THE CIS

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] ARMENIA, IRAN TO BEGIN GAS PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION

    Agreement was reached during Armenian Energy Minister Karen Galustian's visit last week to Tehran that work on a pipeline to transport Iranian gas to Armenia will begin this fall, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 1 September. An international consortium comprising Russian, French, and Greek companies will be created to finance the $150 million pipeline, which will have a throughout capacity of up to 5 million cubic meters per day. Armenia currently imports 3-3.5 million cubic meters of gas daily from Russia. Meeting on 30 August with Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi, Galustian termed the pipeline "important and strategic," according to IRNA. Galustian also met with Iranian First Vice President Hassan Habibi to discuss other joint energy projects, including the Meghri power plant as well as the construction of an oil refinery in Meghri and of a tunnel under the Kajaran mountain pass along the main highway from Armenia to Iran. LF

    [02] DATE SET FOR TRIAL OF FORMER KARABAKH DEFENSE MINISTER

    The Supreme Court of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has scheduled the trial of more than a dozen men accused of involvement in the 22 March attempt to assassinate the enclave's president, Arkadii Ghukasian, for 18 September, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 1 September. Zhudeks Shakarian, the defense lawyer of former Karabakh Defense Minister Samvel Babayan, who is accused of masterminding that attack, was quoted by Noyan Tapan on 31 August as saying he will continue to demand that his client be tried in Armenia. Shakarian believes that a Karabakh court would not hand down an impartial verdict (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 July 2000). Shakarian also said that Babayan has been badly beaten in detention and treated with psychotropic drugs. LF

    [03] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION PARTY LEADER DENIES INVOLVEMENT IN PLANE HIJACK

    Isa Gambar, chairman of the opposition Musavat Party, met on 1 September with heads of Azerbaijani media outlets to thank them for their campaign in support of Rauf Arifoglu, editor of the newspaper "Yeni Musavat," Turan reported. Arifoglu was arrested last month and charged with terrorism in connection with that abortive 18 August attempt by a Musavat Party member to hijack a plane to Turkey (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 and 30 August 2000). Gambar again denied that the Musavat Party was involved in any way in the hijack attempt. LF

    [04] SECOND CONSIGNMENT OF RUSSIAN MILITARY EQUIPMENT TO LEAVE GEORGIA

    Another consignment of military hardware is to be transported from the Russian military base at Vaziani, near Tbilisi, by train to the port of Batumi on 4-5 September and from there by sea to Russia, ITAR-TASS and Caucasus Press reported. This latest consignment will comprise 10 tanks, 19 armored personnel carriers, and 32 special-purpose and motor vehicles. Russia is reducing its military presence in Georgia in accordance with the revised CFE Treaty and an agreement concluded at the OSCE summit in Istanbul late last year (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 2 No. 47, 25 November 1999). LF

    [05] GEORGIAN PRESS ANTICIPATES COUP IN PRESIDENT'S ABSENCE

    Two Georgian newspapers on 4 September express concern at the possibility of a coup after President Eduard Shevardnadze departs to attend the UN Millennium Summit in New York. "Akhali taoba" quotes Interior Minister Kakha Targaamadze as saying that the possibility of destabilization is "quite high," and that "the blow is directed against the president." "Rezonansi" claims that Moscow wishes to instal former Georgian Minister of State Vazha Lortkipanidze as Shevardnadze's successor. LF

    [06] GEORGIAN DISPLACED PERSONS AIR GRIEVANCES

    Some 80,000 Georgians who fled Abkhazia during the 1992-1993 war and are currently living in the west Georgian town of Zugdidi have demanded that Georgian Minister of State Gia Arsenishvili travel to Zugdidi to meet with the Abkhaz government in exile, which is based there, Caucasus Press reported on 1 September. The displaced persons say that tensions in the town are rising and a riot to protest inadequate living conditions may be imminent. They had demanded a meeting with Arsenishvili in late June to protest not having received for the past six months the monthly allowance of 12 lari ($6) to which they are entitled (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 June 2000). Georgian Minister for Refugee Affairs Valerii Vashakidze announced on 31 August that the authorities will allocate 200,000 lari for fuel for displaced persons in western Georgia this winter. LF

    [07] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT CALLS FOR 'CONSOLIDATION'

    Addressing a joint session of the two chambers of Kazakhstan's parliament on 1 September, Nursultan Nazarbaev said that "cohesion and national unity," not only on the part of the law enforcement agencies and local authorities but of society as a whole, are essential to combat the threat from the Islamic militants, Reuters and Interfax reported. Nazarbaev termed last month's incursions into Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan by the banned Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) as "a precursor of serious times ahead for Central Asia as a whole" and "a problem that has already gone beyond the borders of Central Asia and [which] has no easy solution." Nazarbaev said that to meet that threat, military spending in the 2001 budget will be doubled to the equivalent of 1 percent of GDP. LF

    [08] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY LEADER SENTENCED TO 16 YEARS IN PRISON

    A Bishkek court on 1 September passed sentence on eight men accused of having plotted last year to assassinate President Askar Akaev, RFE/RL's bureau in the Kyrgyz capital reported. Opposition Erkindik Party leader Topchubek Turgunaliev, whom the prosecution branded as the mastermind behind that alleged plot, received a 16-year sentence (see "RFE/RL Newsline, " 1 September 2000). Six other alleged conspirators were jailed for 16-17 years and one received a suspended three-year sentence. A ninth man, who claimed to have been recruited by the plotters and on whose testimony the entire case was based, was amnestied and released. LF

    [09] KYRGYZ TROOPS REPEL NEW INCURSION

    During the night of 1-2 September, Kyrgyz government troops backed by air power succeeded after a six-hour battle in driving back a group of some 240 Islamic militants who had staged a three-pronged incursion into Kyrgyzstan's southern Batken Oblast, Russian agencies reported. General Bolot Djanuzakov, who is secretary of the Kyrgyz Security Council, told journalists in Bishkek on 2 September that the Kyrgyz troops inflicted "heavy" casualties, while only two Kyrgyz servicemen were wounded. He said Kyrgyz planes continue to target possible areas near the Kyrgyz-Tajik border where guerrillas are believed to be concentrated. LF

    [10] TAJIK GOVERNMENT TROOPS CLASH WITH OPPOSITION FIGHTERS

    On 1 September, a Tajik Interior Ministry spokesman said that Tajik government forces had killed 15 members of an armed detachment headed by Mullo Abdullo, a former field commander of the United Tajik Opposition, in the east of the country, Reuters reported. He added that an unspecified number of government troops also died or were wounded during the clash. It is unclear whether Abdullo had joined forces with the IMU. LF

    [11] UKRAINE, TURKEY OFFER TO HELP COMBAT THREAT TO CENTRAL ASIA

    Kyiv is ready to cooperate with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian states in the struggle against "international terrorism and extremism, " ITAR-TASS reported on 1 September, citing a Ukrainian Foreign Ministry statement. The statement expressed concern at the "escalation of tensions" in Central Asia and at "efforts by international terrorists aimed against the territorial integrity of regional states." Ankara has also offered Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan "financial and psychological assistance" in the battle with Islamic extremists, Caucasus Press reported on 2 September, quoting Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem. LF

    [12] RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY SEES NO AGGRESSION IN CENTRAL ASIA

    Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, the chief of the Russian Defense Ministry's International Military Cooperation Department, told "Kommersant-Daily" on 2 September that "there is no aggression against Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan at the present time." Describing events there as "raids by Islamic extremists, " Ivashov said "these countries have not asked for Russia's military assistance." But he added that "if the situation develops in an unfavorable direction," the CIS "must be prepared to offer immediate and effective resistance," because "when aggression arises, there will be no time to warm up." On 1 September Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Kazakh counterpart, Nursultan Nazarbaev, held a telephone discussion of the situation in Central Asia and aspects of bilateral relations. PG

    [13] PHOTOGRAPHER SHOT DEAD IN TAJIKISTAN

    Aleksandr Alpatov, a photographer with the Khovar news agency, was found shot dead near his home in Dushanbe late on 1 September, ITAR-TASS reported. LF

    [14] TAJIK OFFICIAL SAYS CURRENCY 'STABLE'

    Gulomzhon Babaev, who is economic counsellor to Tajikistan's President Imomali Rakhmonov, told a press conference in Dushanbe on 3 September that rumors of an imminent devaluation of the Tajik ruble are totally unfounded, Asia Plus-Blitz reported. He added that Tajikistan's gold and foreign currency reserves have not declined over the past eight months. The official exchange rate has fallen from 1,910 rubles to $1 in early August to 1,925 rubles on 8 August and 1958 on 1 September. The black market exchange rate is currently 2,300 rubles to the dollar. LF

    [15] TURKMEN ENVOY CONTINUES AFGHAN MEDIATION MISSION

    Turkmen presidential envoy and former Foreign Minister Boris Shikhmuradov met in Dushanbe on 1 September with Ahmed Shah Massoud, who heads the anti- Taliban Northern Alliance, and handed him "a package of peacemaking proposals," Reuters and Russian agencies reported. Shikhmuradov met last week in Afghanistan with Taliban leader Mullah Omar, who reportedly agreed to unconditional talks with Massoud on ending the civil war in Afghanistan (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 31 August and 1 September 2000). On 4 September, Interfax reported that General Dostum, Massoud's former ally within the Northern Alliance, was in Moscow last week on a "private visit." LF

    [16] NEW TURKMEN DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER APPOINTED

    President Saparmurat Niyazov last week appointed Orazmurad Begmyradov, the former head of the chief tax inspectorate, as deputy premier with responsibility for the Finance and Economy Ministry and the customs and tax services, Reuters and Interfax reported. Begmyradov, who is 48, previously held key posts in the banking sector. LF

    [17] DROUGHT COULD LEAD TO FAMINE, UNREST IN UZBEK REGION

    A spokesman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs warned in Geneva on 1 September that the population of Karakalpakistan, in northwestern Uzbekistan, faces famine and possible social unrest as a result of this summer's drought, Reuters reported. Karakalpakistan is the region of Uzbekistan most severely affected by the adverse weather conditions, which have destroyed virtually all crops of rice, corn, millet sunflowers, and vegetables. The region has a population of between 1.2-1.5 million. LF

    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [18] OPPOSITION CANDIDATE CONFIDENT OF BEATING MILOSEVIC

    Vojislav Kostunica, the leading opposition candidate for the Yugoslav presidency, said he is "very optimistic" about his chances of becoming the country's next president, Reuters reported, citing the Germany's "Welt am Sonntag" on 3 September. In an interview with the newspaper, Kostunica said that "even more than the positive poll results, I'm happy about the general mood in the population. It encourages me and confirms the empirical figures." A 2 September poll by the Institute for Social Sciences gave Kostunica 52 percent support, compared with 31 percent for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. Kostunica, who kicked off his campaign on 1 September with a rally in Belgrade, said he is worried that a "blatant attempt at election fraud" could take place, "because neither my party nor I have any control over what goes on in the south of the country or in Montenegro." Kostunica, the candidate of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia bloc, said his campaign is virtually being ignored by the state media. He refused to call Milosevic a war criminal, adding that he is against "any form of revenge, even against Milosevic." PB

    [19] MILOSEVIC SUPPORTERS CLAIM BROAD SUPPORT AS WELL

    Yugoslavia's ruling parties on 3 September submitted to the parliament what they claimed are some 1.5 million signatures in support of Yugoslav President Milosevic, Reuters reported. Gorica Gajevic, the secretary- general of Milosevic's Socialist Party, said "it is obvious that on 24 September the general demand and will of the people is that Slobodan Milosevic...will be confirmed decisively" as president. Only 25,000 signatures are needed for registration. Officials said some 200,000 of the signatures came from Montenegro. Zoran Djindjic, the coordinator of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia, said the names "were probably taken from the phone book or voting lists." He said "everybody knows Milosevic stands no chance of winning over Kostunica if votes are counted properly." PB

    [20] EU TO CHANGE POLICY ON SERBIA IF KOSTUNICA WINS

    French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine said on 3 September that the EU will radically revise its policies toward Serbia if there is a change in leadership there after the 24 September elections, Reuters reported. Vedrine, who hosted a EU foreign ministers meeting in Evian, France, said all 15 members of the EU agreed to make major changes in its dealings with Belgrade should it "opt for democracy." France currently holds the rotating EU presidency. On 1 September, the OSCE said in a report issued in Warsaw that it is concerned that the rules for Yugoslavia's presidential, parliamentary, and local elections this month allow for widespread abuse, particularly vote-counting fraud "at each level of the tabulation process." PB

    [21] MILOSEVIC SUPPORTERS RESIGN FROM STATE TV BOARD

    Two top officials from the junior coalition Serbian Radical Party (SRS) have resigned from the managing board of state television after accusing the board of bias against the SRS, Reuters reported on 3 September, citing Radio Index. Tomislav Nikolic, a deputy head of the SRS, and Serbian Information Minister Aleksandar Vucic said they were resigning to protest the "obvious non-existence of any influence of the SRS on [state television's] editorial policy." PB

    [22] U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS SERBS IN KOSOVA SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO VOTE

    Robert Frowick, the U.S. representative for elections in the Balkans, said the West must consider various issues before allowing Serbs in Kosova to vote in the 24 September Yugoslav elections, Reuters reported. Frowick said there must be "some way of enabling all eligible citizens to vote in the elections in Serbia. But Kosovo is a very special case now and UN Security Council Resolution 1244 gives the international community...so much authority during the transition period." Bernard Kouchner, the head of the UN mission in Kosova, has not yet replied to reports that Belgrade wants to allow voting to take place in the province. PB

    [23] KOUCHNER ORDERS PROBE AFTER SERBS ESCAPE FROM JAIL IN KOSOVA

    UN mission head Kouchner said on 3 September that he has ordered a review of the administration of jails and other detention centers in the Serbian province after 13 Serbian prisoners escaped from a Mitrovica jail on 2 September, dpa reported. The jailbreak was the fifth one this year at the Mitrovica facility. The guards were reportedly overpowered during the escape. Oliver Ivanovic, the leader of the Serbian community in the town, said he has reliable reports that four of the prisoners have left Kosova and are in other parts of Serbia. Four of the escapees were charged with genocide and four others with mass murder. PB

    [24] KOSOVAR ALBANIANS REBURY MASSACRE VICTIMS

    Hundreds of ethnic Albanians attended the reburial in Makovc, Kosova, on 3 September of 67 men, women, and children killed by Serbian forces last year, AP reported. The victims were reportedly taken away by Serbian forces while they fled Kosova between 19-23 April 1999. They were discovered in six mass graves near Makovc, about 10 kilometers from Prishtina. Stephen Leach, a war crimes tribunal investigator in Kosova, said "it is still too early to say how many people were killed in Kosovo...we are still discovering new mass graves." PB

    [25] CROATIAN PRESIDENT, PREMIER RECEIVE DEATH THREATS

    Police have increased security for Stipe Mesic and Ivica Racan after the two leaders confirmed on 2 September that they have received death threats, dpa and Reuters reported. Mesic said the threat against him came from the Croatian Revolutionary Brotherhood, which was founded in the early 1960s with the aim of establishing an independent Croatia but was thought to have been disbanded nearly a decade ago. It is not clear if the same organization threatened Racan. Racan said "I expect an outbreak of political violence within the next three months. But I'm not afraid because the government's response will be determined and effective." Mesic quipped on television: "Imagine that, they sentence me to death, effective immediately, with no right of appeal." PB

    [26] DOES CLINTON WANT KARADZIC AS GOING-AWAY PRESENT?

    London's "The Times" reported on 2 September that Bill Clinton has told his military commanders that he wants former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic to be captured before the U.S. president's term ends in January, dpa reported. "The Times" said that European military sources in Sarajevo report that the U.S. has increased its presence on the ground and that teams have intensified their surveillance of Karadzic as he moves to various locations around the Republika Srpska. Jacques Klein, the head of the UN mission in Bosnia-Herzegovina, said Karadzic, who has been indicted for war crimes by the war crimes tribunal at The Hague, "is a poison cloud hanging over this place." PB

    [27] ROMANIAN NATIONAL ALLIANCE ELECTS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE

    A 3 September extraordinary congress of the Party of Romanian National Unity (PUNR) and the Romanian National Party (PNR) approved the merger of the two formations and elected former PUNR chairman Valeriu Tabara and former PNR chairman Virgil Magureanu as co-chairmen of the new National Alliance. The congress also elected Marian Munteanu as the alliance's candidate for the presidential elections, scheduled for November and December. Munteanu, a former student leader, is the ex-chairman of the defunct Movement for Romania, a party modeled on the inter-war fascist League of the Archangel Michel (also known as the Iron Guard). On 2 September, an extraordinary National Convention of the Alliance for Romania (APR) designated APR leader Teodor Melescanu as its presidential candidate, as had been expected. MS

    [28] ROMANIAN FINANCE MINISTER LAUNCHES NEW LIBERAL PARTY

    Decebal Traian Remes, who resigned from the National Liberal Party (PNL) over his opposition to Theodor Stolojan's presidential candidacy, was elected chairman of the National Liberal Party- -the Bratianus on 2 September. The party bears the name of the Bratianu family that headed Romania's Liberal Party over several generations in the late 19th century and the first half of the 20th century. The party chaired by Remes was formerly called the Liberal Monarchist Party. MS

    [29] TRANSDNIESTER CELEBRATES 'INDEPENDENCE ANNIVERSARY'

    The breakaway Transdniester Republic on 2 September celebrated the 10th anniversary of its 'independence" with a military parade involving heavy weaponry, included rocket launchers, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. The previous day, separatist leader Igor Smirnov rejected the proposal by Yevgenii Primakov, Russian chairman of the commission for the Transdniester settlement, that the region form a federation with Moldova, AP reported. Smirnov said the solution must rest in a "gradual rapprochement" between the two sides as "independent nations." He said only a separate Transdniester state can stop the plans of "the nationalists in Chisinau... who want to unite with Romania." But on 3 September, General Stanislav Khazheyev, the "defense minister" of the separatist region, told ITAR-TASS that his government "hopes for a fruitful collaboration" with Primakov. MS

    [30] BULGARIA ACCUSES MACEDONIA OF OBSTRUCTING TRANSIT TO KOSOVA

    The Bulgarian Foreign Ministry on 3 September said the Macedonian authorities are intentionally obstructing the transit of Bulgarian trucks to Kosova, causing food cargoes to spoil while waiting at the Blace crossing point, AP reported. The ministry said the truckers are forced to wait in line for days without any food, water, medical aid, and basic conveniences. It described this state of affairs "an ill-minded practice" rather than "an incident." Earlier on 1 September, AP reported that Bulgarian shipping officials said the country's Danube fleet is in danger of grinding to a virtual halt because of "chronic difficulties in passing the Yugoslav stretch of the river." The Romanian sailors' union announced it intends to block the eastern Danube port of Calarasi to protest the ongoing obstacles to navigation in Yugoslavia. MS

    [C] END NOTE

    [31] ANOTHER BLOW TO THE CIS

    by Paul Goble

    Moscow's decision to withdraw from the visa-free regime with other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States may help the Russian government to protect itself against terrorism, organized crime, and drug trafficking.

    But it is also likely to affect Russia's relationship with other CIS countries, offending many and at the same time giving Moscow new political leverage over some. In addition, this move seems certain to affect the attitudes of the 11 non-Russian countries toward Russia and Russians and possibly even Moscow's ability to recruit low-income workers from abroad.

    Consequently, Russia's use of this tool to defend some of its national interests may have the effect of undermining other important interests as well.

    Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov announced on 30 August that Russia is withdrawing from the 1992 Bishkek accord, which established visa-free travel among all but three of the members of the CIS. (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine have remained outside.) He said that terrorism and organized crime mean that Moscow will withdraw from this regime after giving the 90-day notice required by the original agreement.

    Some of his aides pointed out that the Bishkek arrangements themselves have already begun to break down, with several of the Central Asian countries already having imposed visa agreements on one another's nationals. But the Russian foreign minister himself went out of his way to stress that this decision was not intended to divide the CIS countries: Russia's withdrawal, he said, "does not mean that Russia intends to create artificial barriers and to fence itself off from Commonwealth partners." He added that Russian diplomats will now begin discussions with CIS governments about travel documentation requirements in the future.

    Nonetheless, many people across the 12 countries currently part of the CIS are likely to view this Russian decision as the latest blow to the continued existence of an organization that has tried to maintain ties among the 12 Soviet republics since 1991. After all, despite numerous meetings, the CIS could point to few real achievements beyond the visa-free regime system, an arrangement that allowed some of the countries involved to survive as their workers abroad sent back part of their earnings to their homelands. Russia's decision to withdraw will not only lead others to do the same but call into question whether the CIS has any future.

    But regardless of whether this Russian decision has the effect of ending the CIS, it clearly will have an impact on Moscow's relationship with the other members. On the one hand, it will reduce Russia's ability to present itself to them as the guarantor of CIS arrangements. On the other, it will almost certainly allow Moscow to step up its pressure on various countries, demanding concessions as the price for a more favorable visa regime.

    In addition, this decision may prompt many in the non- Russian countries to revise their views of Russia and their treatment of ethnic Russians resident on their territory. They will certainly view this decision as a reflection of Russian, even ethnic Russian national interests, a perception that may lead some of them to become more nationalist in the defense of their own interests domestically and internationally.

    Finally, this decision seems certain to affect Russia itself. Economically, it appears likely to have the effect of depriving certain Russian firms of low-paid guest workers from the former Soviet republics, who up to now have provided some of the muscle behind Russia's recent economic gains. Such enterprises will certainly seek special arrangements for "their" workers, thus adding a new element to Russian politics.

    And politically, this decision could have the effect of increasing Russian hostility to non-Russians living in the Russian Federation, regardless of their citizenship. Not only is it likely to increase demands, like those already in place in some Russian cities, for the expulsion of "persons from the Caucasus," but it may be seen by some as giving a kind of official green light to Russian nationalist organizations of various stripes.

    Moscow's move last week thus may have a very different impact on Russian national security than its authors intend.

    04-09-00


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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