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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 220, 00-11-13

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 220, 13 November 2000


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] ARMENIAN AUTHORITIES FAIL TO RELEASE DETAINED BUSINESSMAN
  • [02] ARMENIA REGISTERS UPSWING IN EXPORTS, INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
  • [03] FIVE AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION PARTIES CALL FOR ANNULMENT OF PARLIAMENTARY POLL...
  • [04] ...AS FORMER PRESIDENT ANNOUNCES WILL CONTEND NEXT PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT
  • [05] RUSSIA CALLS ON GEORGIA TO HAND OVER CHECHEN FIELD COMMANDERS
  • [06] GEORGIAN PROSECUTOR-GENERAL'S APARTMENT BURGLED
  • [07] UN, RUSSIA PROTEST ABKHAZ MILITARY MANEUVERS
  • [08] KAZAKHSTAN, RUSSIA DISCUSS TRANSPORT, PIPELINE PROJECTS
  • [09] TWO GERMAN DIPLOMATS KILLED IN CAR-CRASH IN KAZAKHSTAN
  • [10] LOWER HOUSE OF KAZAKH PARLIAMENT CALLS FOR CHANGES IN DRAFT BUDGET
  • [11] KYRGYZ CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION VALID
  • [12] TAJIK OFFICIAL ADMITS GLITCHES IN CURRENCY REFORM
  • [13] RUSSIA TO HELP REBUILD TAJIKISTAN'S MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
  • [14] UZBEK JUDGE DENIES ISLAMIC MOVEMENT LEADER VOLUNTEERED TO STAND TRIAL
  • [15] UZBEKISTAN ANTICIPATES NEW ISLAMIST INCURSIONS

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [16] NATIONALIST SERBIAN, CROATIAN PARTIES CLAIM VICTORY IN BOSNIAN ELECTIONS
  • [17] BOSNIAN-CROATIAN LEADER PLEASED WITH REFERENDUM
  • [18] PETRITSCH DECREES NEW BOSNIAN LAWS
  • [19] MONTENEGRO DROPS THE YUGOSLAV DINAR
  • [20] MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENT THREATENS REFERENDUM ON INDEPENDENCE
  • [21] YUGOSLAVIA'S MEMBERSHIP IN OSCE RESTORED
  • [22] INMATES RETURN TO CELLS, BUT PRISON GUARDS GO ON STRIKE
  • [23] KOSTUNICA AGAIN RULES OUT PURGE OF MILITARY, POLICE...
  • [24] ...SAYS TOP PRIORITY IS RETURN OF SERBS TO KOSOVA
  • [25] SLOVENIAN PARTIES REACH DRAFT AGREEMENT ON COALITION
  • [26] ROMANIA'S NASTASE MAKES PLEA FOR 'ROMANIAN CAPITALISM'
  • [27] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT NOT SATISFIED WITH FULFILLMENT OF CIS AGREEMENTS
  • [28] SOCIALISTS HOLD RALLY IN SOFIA AGAINST GOVERNMENT
  • [29] BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT ADOPTS DECLARATION ON VISAS FOR EU

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [30] RUSSIA TO MAKE BIG CUTS IN MILITARY PERSONNEL

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] ARMENIAN AUTHORITIES FAIL TO RELEASE DETAINED BUSINESSMAN

    Arkadii Vartanian, head of the 21st Century Association, was transferred to the Armenian National Security Ministry on 9 November, one day before his 10-day administrative arrest was due to expire, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Vartanian was detained at the end of last month for leading an unsanctioned march to the presidential palace on 30 October, (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 31 October 2000). Interior Minister Hayk Harutiunian said last week that Vartanian had been charged with calling for the violent overthrow of the Armenian leadership. LF

    [02] ARMENIA REGISTERS UPSWING IN EXPORTS, INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT

    Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Ashot Shahnazarian told journalists in Yerevan on 10 November that over the first 10 months of this year, Armenia's industrial output grew by 22 percent while exports increased by 47 percent compared with the same period in 1999, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. He said the upswing in the industrial sector has made possible the creation of 14,000 new jobs. He attributed the growth to increased foreign investment and the gradual restoration of trade ties with other former Soviet republics. LF

    [03] FIVE AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION PARTIES CALL FOR ANNULMENT OF PARLIAMENTARY POLL...

    Meeting in Baku on 11 November, representatives of the Azerbaijan National Independence Party (AMIP), the Democratic, Liberal, Musavat Parties and the reformist wing of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party [CHECK!] called for the annulment of the 5 November parliamentary poll and new elections, Interfax and Turan reported. They also called on President Heidar Aliev to resign. The previous day, a Central Electoral Commission told Turan that of 96 deputies elected in single-mandate constituencies, 62 represent the ruling Yeni Azerbaycan Party and 26 are independent. The vote in the three remaining constituencies has been annulled. The Azerbaijan Popular Front Party and Musavat each have two deputies, while AMIP, Ana Veten, the Social Prosperity Party, and the Alliance for Azerbaijan have one each. The Central Election Commission has meanwhile asked the Prosecutor-General's Office to investigate reports of widespread violations and falsification of the ballot. LF

    [04] ...AS FORMER PRESIDENT ANNOUNCES WILL CONTEND NEXT PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT

    Ayaz Mutalibov, who fled Azerbaijan in May 1992 after an abortive attempt to regain the presidency, told Interfax on 10 November that he will run for Azerbaijani president in 2003. Mutalibov, who had been removed as president in March 1992 by the parliament, said he has decided to make another bid for that post not out of personal ambition but in order to help his country. Mutalibov compared the outcome of the 5 November parliamentary election to those Supreme Soviet ballots prior to the collapse of the USSR, noting that in both cases the list of deputies to be elected was drawn up in advance. He predicted that neither the international community nor the people of Azerbaijan will trust the new legislature. On 11 November, Azerbaijani police broke up a demonstration by members of Mutalibov's Civil Solidarity Party in Masally to protest the Justice Ministry's refusal to register the party, Turan reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 October 2000). A similar planned rally in Djalilabad was called off following the disappearance of the chairman of the party's branch there. LF

    [05] RUSSIA CALLS ON GEORGIA TO HAND OVER CHECHEN FIELD COMMANDERS

    The Russian Foreign Ministry on 7 November gave its Georgian counterpart a list of 67 wanted Chechen field commanders and fighters, about half of whom are believed to be on Georgian territory, Russian agencies reported on 10 November. The list includes President Aslan Maskhadov, and field commanders Khattab, Shamil Basaev, and Ruslan Gelaev. Moscow officially requested Tbilisi to detain and hand over the men in question. Georgian Foreign Ministry spokesman Avtandil Napetvaridze told Interfax on 10 November that the Russian claim that many of the Chechens in question are in Georgia is untrue, but he added that should they enter Georgia, they will be detained and handed over to the Russian authorities. LF

    [06] GEORGIAN PROSECUTOR-GENERAL'S APARTMENT BURGLED

    Thieves broke into the Tbilisi apartment of Djamlet Babilashvili early on 12 November and stole valuable belongings, Caucasus Press reported. Babilashvili and his family were at their summer residence at the time. LF

    [07] UN, RUSSIA PROTEST ABKHAZ MILITARY MANEUVERS

    General Anis Bajwa, who is the chief military official attached to the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG), has lodged a formal protest with the Abkhaz authorities over the conduct of military exercises in Gali and Ochamchira Raions, where restrictions on the amount of military equipment that may be deployed remain in force, Caucasus Press reported on 10 November. Vesselin Kostov, who is political adviser to UNOMIG, also protested the ban imposed by the Abkhaz authorities on UN helicopter flights over the border region between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia for the duration of the maneuvers. The Russian peacekeeping force deployed along the internal border has also protested the Abkhaz maneuvers, according to ITAR-TASS. LF

    [08] KAZAKHSTAN, RUSSIA DISCUSS TRANSPORT, PIPELINE PROJECTS

    Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbaev and visiting Russian Transport Minister Sergei Frank discussed how to coordinate the two countries' transport systems within the framework of the planned North-South (Russia- Kazakhstan-Iran-India) and East-West (Berlin-Warsaw-Minsk-Moscow-Novgorod) transport corridors, Russian agencies reported. Frank noted plans to extend the latter corridor through Yekaterinburg and northern Kazakhstan to China. Also discussed was progress in made by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in constructing a pipeline from the Tengiz oil field in western Kazakhstan to Novorossiisk. That pipeline is scheduled to be completed in June 2001, and the first tanker carrying Tengiz oil exported via that pipeline is scheduled to leave Novorossiisk two months later. LF

    [09] TWO GERMAN DIPLOMATS KILLED IN CAR-CRASH IN KAZAKHSTAN

    Two German diplomats died on 12 November when their minibus crashed in a snow-storm on the main Almaty-Bishkek highway, Reuters reported. Two Kyrgyz nationals were also killed and eight people injured. LF

    [10] LOWER HOUSE OF KAZAKH PARLIAMENT CALLS FOR CHANGES IN DRAFT BUDGET

    Deputies in the lower house of the parliament have called for the draft budget for 2001 to be amended to include $660 million in revenues received by the Kazakh government from the sale earlier this year of a 5 percent stake in the Tengizchevroil joint venture, Interfax reported on 9 November (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 August 2000). They also demanded increased funding for social programs and the agricultural sector. The lower house nonetheless passed the draft for the debate to the Senate, the upper chamber of parliament. LF

    [11] KYRGYZ CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION VALID

    Kyrgyzstan's Constitutional Court on 10 November formally endorsed the results of the 29 October presidential poll in which incumbent Askar Akaev was re-elected with 74.47 percent of the vote, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Also on 10 November, defeated presidential candidate Omurbek Tekebaev, who according to official returns polled 13.09 percent, appealed to Central Election Commission chairman Sulaiman Imanbaev to order a recount in some constituencies in Chu, Djalalabad, Issyk-Kul, Osh and Talas Oblasts and in Bishkek where poll protocols drawn up by local officials differ markedly from the final results. LF

    [12] TAJIK OFFICIAL ADMITS GLITCHES IN CURRENCY REFORM

    Mahmadsaid Ubaidullaev, who is chairman of the upper house of Tajikistan's parliament and one of Tajikistan's most influential political figures, admitted on 10 November that the government committed mistakes during the introduction late last month of a new currency, the somoni, to replace the Tajik ruble, ITAR-TASS reported. Specifically, the Tajik authorities failed to reassure the population that it would not suffer as a result of the reform. Panic buying in the wake of the announcement of the reform resulted in steep price increases and shortages of some foods (see "RFE/RL Newsline, " 27 and 30 October 2000). LF

    [13] RUSSIA TO HELP REBUILD TAJIKISTAN'S MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

    Tajik government officials signed a protocol on 10 November in Dushanbe with Russian Munitions Agency Director-General Zinovii Pak whereby Moscow will rebuild Tajik defense plants destroyed during the civil war, ITAR-TASS and AP reported. The two sides will also cooperate in developing new technologies for joint production in Tajikistan (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 November 2000). LF

    [14] UZBEK JUDGE DENIES ISLAMIC MOVEMENT LEADER VOLUNTEERED TO STAND TRIAL

    Uzbekistan's Supreme Court Deputy Chairman Bakhtior Djamalov, who is presiding over the Tashkent trial of 12 men charged with terrorist activities, denied on 10 November that Mohammed Solih had volunteered to stand trial alongside other members of the banned Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Interfax reported. Solih is one of nine defendants currently being tried in absentia for their alleged role in terrorist activities, including the car bomb explosions in Tashkent in February 1999 (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 31 October 2000). LF

    [15] UZBEKISTAN ANTICIPATES NEW ISLAMIST INCURSIONS

    Recently appointed Uzbek Defense Minister Kodir Gulomov told journalists in Tashkent on 10 November said he cannot exclude the possibility of a new incursion into Uzbekistan by IMU fighters, although it is impossible to predict when such an attack might take place, Interfax reported. Gulomov noted that stretches of the Uzbek-Tajik border that are difficult to control are mined and that although Tashkent has repeatedly informed Dushanbe of the whereabouts of those minefields, Tajik civilians continue to fall victim to them (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 November 2000). LF

    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [16] NATIONALIST SERBIAN, CROATIAN PARTIES CLAIM VICTORY IN BOSNIAN ELECTIONS

    Officials from nationalist Serbian and Croatian parties claimed on 12 November that they are leading in the general elections held the previous day, AP reported. The Serbian Democratic Party, founded by indicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic, said that its candidate for president of the Republika Srpska, Mirko Sarovic, is winning the race against pro-Western Bosnian Serb Premier Milorad Dodik. In the Muslim-Croatian Federation, the nationalist Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) said it is leading the vote count in five out of 10 cantons in the federation. But Zlatko Lagumdzija, the leader of the multiethnic Social Democratic Party, said his party is also receiving strong support, as is former Bosnian Premier Haris Silajdzic's Party for Bosnia-Herzegovina. The OSCE said it will release the first official results on 13 November. OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Vice President Bruce George said the organization and conduct of the elections was of the "very highest order." Other OSCE and Council of Europe officials agreed but pointed to some attempts at organized fraud. PB

    [17] BOSNIAN-CROATIAN LEADER PLEASED WITH REFERENDUM

    HDZ leader Ante Jelavic claimed that some 70 percent of voters approved a parallel referendum held by the HDZ asking voters if they approve of greater autonomy for Bosnian-Croats, AP reported. Jelavic said that as far as Bosnian Croats are concerned, the UN and other international officials "are finished." The OSCE declared the referendum illegal and warned that international officials might punish the HDZ for holding the plebiscite. HDZ spokesman Zoran Timic said "we don't expect the OSCE to make a decision that would put a question mark [over] the implementation of the election results." PB

    [18] PETRITSCH DECREES NEW BOSNIAN LAWS

    Wolfgang Petritsch, the international community's high representative to Bosnia-Herzegovina, announced the implementation of several laws on 12 November designed to attract investment and bring the country closer to EU norms, Reuters reported. Petritsch announced a Bosnia-wide state court, pension reforms requested by the World Bank, and EU standardization norms. Petritsch said he was decreeing the laws after months of delay by Muslim, Serbian, and Croatian politicians to pass them. The reforms will allow the disbursement of a World Bank credit of some $24 million to fund the restructuring of public financial institutions. PB

    [19] MONTENEGRO DROPS THE YUGOSLAV DINAR

    The Yugoslav dinar is no longer legal tender in the republic of Montenegro beginning on 13 November, AFP reported. Montenegro's Monetary Council said on 10 November that the German mark will be the only currency in the republic until 2002, when the euro goes into circulation. Montenegro introduced the German mark as a parallel currency in June. In retaliation, the Yugoslav National Bank imposed a ban on financial transactions between Montenegrin and Serbian companies. PB

    [20] MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENT THREATENS REFERENDUM ON INDEPENDENCE

    Milo Djukanovic said on 10 November that Montenegro will hold a referendum on secession from Yugoslavia unless the union between Serbia and Montenegro is radically modified, AP reported. Djukanovic said: "I think that a union between Serbia and Montenegro is possible, but on completely new foundations. Present-day Yugoslavia must be changed to be the union of two internationally-recognized states... Yugoslavia doesn't exist." The Montenegrin president also said that the new union would "in fact have more common functions than the current one," adding that joint functions are only found in "state air control and the military, which Milosevic abused by threatening Montenegro's democracy." The latest opinion polls show that some 55 percent of Montenegrins support independence for the republic. PB

    [21] YUGOSLAVIA'S MEMBERSHIP IN OSCE RESTORED

    The OSCE Permanent Council unanimously agreed on 10 November in Vienna to restore Yugoslavia's membership in the OSCE, Reuters reported. Yugoslav Foreign Minster Goran Svilanovic attended a ceremony in the Austrian capital at which the Yugoslav flag was raised. The OSCE now has 55 members. PB

    [22] INMATES RETURN TO CELLS, BUT PRISON GUARDS GO ON STRIKE

    Guards at Yugoslavia's three largest prisons went on strike on 11 November, one day after prisoners ended a revolt and began returning to their cells, AP reported, citing Belgrade's Beta news agency. The guards are demanding better pay, improved working conditions, as well as consultations with prison and Justice Ministry officials. The ministry said money for unpaid wages is being made available and that the strike will end soon. PB

    [23] KOSTUNICA AGAIN RULES OUT PURGE OF MILITARY, POLICE...

    Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica said on 12 November that a large- scale purge of the military and police in Serbia would destroy those institutions, Reuters reported. Kostunica said in an interview with the daily "Politika" that "I am sure that it is not the will of the people at this moment to destroy institutions such as the army and the police." He added that "nor is it the will of the people to replace everybody in various institutions just because they were members of [former President Slobodan Milosevic's] Socialist Party of Serbia." Officials in Kostunica's Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) are upset with the president's stance. DOS officials want Kostunica to remove army chief of staff General Nebojsa Pavkovic and Serbian state security head Rade Markovic and have refused to work with the transitional Serbian government until those two officials have been sacked or resign. Zarko Korac, a DOS leader, said "these people will destroy these institutions. People are watching this and wondering what the DOS is doing now." PB

    [24] ...SAYS TOP PRIORITY IS RETURN OF SERBS TO KOSOVA

    Yugoslav President Kostunica said in an interview with the German magazine "Der Spiegel" that the return of Serbs to the province of Kosova is his top goal, AP reported. Kostunica said that first "security must be established in Kosovo... Then the displaced Serbs should return, that is our main goal." He said he welcomed last month's election win by the party of moderate Kosovar Albanian Ibrahim Rugova but ruled out independence for the province because it would "destabilize" neighboring countries with large ethnic-Albanian populations. Kostunica said a political solution whereby Serbs and ethnic Albanians have substantial autonomy "must be found." But he added that he will respect the result of referendums, both in Montenegro or Kosova, saying "we will respect the people's decision." Kostunica said Russia's presence in Kosova is very important "as a counterweight to America, which has installed itself too deeply in this region." PB

    [25] SLOVENIAN PARTIES REACH DRAFT AGREEMENT ON COALITION

    Four Slovenian political parties reached a preliminary agreement on 10 November in Ljubljana to form a center-left government, dpa reported. The Liberal Democrats of former Premier Janez Drnovsek, which emerged as the strongest party after last month's elections, signed an accord with the conservative People's Party, the former Communists known as the United List of Social Democrats, and the pensioner's party Desus. Drnovsek said the coalition will have 58 out of the 90 seats in parliament. He said a final agreement should be signed by 15 November. PB

    [26] ROMANIA'S NASTASE MAKES PLEA FOR 'ROMANIAN CAPITALISM'

    During a 12 November visit to the city of Ramnicu Valcea as part of his election campaign, Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) First Deputy Chairman Adrian Nastase made a plea for "a Romanian capitalism, with Romanian capitalists, on a Romanian market and with Romanian products," BBC's Romanian Service reported. Nastase, who is the PDSR's candidate for the premiership, added that Romania needs a clear strategy for joining the EU in order to avoid becoming "a colony for others to sell their products." The PDSR intends to create a so-called "Club 75" that would consist of companies willing to support the party's election campaign with a maximum of 75 million lei ($3,000). ZsM

    [27] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT NOT SATISFIED WITH FULFILLMENT OF CIS AGREEMENTS

    Petru Lucinschi met with Yuri Yarov, executive secretary of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), in Chisinau on 10 November, AP Flux reported. The two officials discussed preparations for a CIS summit scheduled for 31 November-1 December in Minsk. During the talks, Lucinschi said that CIS states must pledge to fulfill their commitments within the organization, noting that "almost 500 CIS agreements have not been implemented." Lucinschi is due to attend the summit in Minsk, although a presidential election has been scheduled in the republic for 1 December. ET

    [28] SOCIALISTS HOLD RALLY IN SOFIA AGAINST GOVERNMENT

    An estimated 10,000 people marched in a Socialist-sponsored rally in central Sofia on 11 November to protest against government policies, Reuters reported. Georgi Parvanov, the head of the Bulgarian Socialist Party, told the mostly elderly people at the demonstration that the ruling Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) has brought only "poverty, unemployment, and corruption, and managed to secure well-being only for a tiny circle of people close to the UDF elite." The UDF government of Ivan Kostov came to power in 1997. Parliamentary elections are to be held next summer. PB

    [29] BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT ADOPTS DECLARATION ON VISAS FOR EU

    The Bulgarian parliament adopted a declaration on 10 November demanding that the EU end its visa regime against Bulgarians, AP reported. The vote followed a strongly-worded speech by Premier Kostov condemning the visa regulations (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 November 2000). All 233 of the 240 deputies present in the chamber voted for the declaration. Kostov said "Bulgaria must defend its national interest by preparing for an active and strong foreign policy response in case visa restrictions are not lifted. We must...not let ourselves be treated as third-hand Europeans." PB

    [C] END NOTE

    [30] RUSSIA TO MAKE BIG CUTS IN MILITARY PERSONNEL

    By Sophie Lambroschini

    Last week, Russia's Security Council announced that the country's armed forces will be reduced by almost 20 percent over five years.

    The council called the organization of Russia's military "unwieldy" and "wasteful." President Vladimir Putin, who presided over last week's meeting, said the reductions are needed to get what he described "a more compact and therefore a more mobile and professional army."

    The reductions approved by the Security Council involve up to 470,000 military personnel and 130,000 civilians. They also include 380 generals and represent the latest step by the Russian authorities to streamline the country's defense and arms sector. Currently, Russia's armed forces total some 3 million.

    Russia's Security Council, an advisory body set up by former President Boris Yeltsin, is composed of the heads of the main security ministries, including Defense Minister Igor Sergeev, the heads of the foreign and domestic intelligence services, and the interior, emergency situations, and other ministers. In the spring, the chief of staff, Anatolii Kvashnin, was also made a council member by Putin, who chairs the body. Over the past several months, Kvashnin and Sergeev's disagreements over military reform have become public.

    Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer told RFE/RL that Putin has supported the reductions because of the war in Chechnya: "It turned out a year ago, when Putin was very actively taking part in organizing, preparing, and running the present new Chechen war, that Russia cannot field more than 100,000 men and the Defense Ministry can send to war only fewer than 60,000 men--whereas [on the military] payrolls, there [are] up to 3 million people."

    The Security Council's decision comes more than six weeks after the last of its many failed attempts to reach an agreement. At that time, analysts said that military leaders had strongly resisted reductions in any of Russia's 11 paramilitary forces. They were said to have argued, for example, that Interior Ministry troops--one of the 11 paramilitaries--are now being called on to play a bigger role in the face of threats to Russian security posed by conflicts such as the one in Chechnya.

    At the 9 November council meeting, a compromise was apparently reached. While most of the proposed cuts affect the Defense Ministry forces--which will lose 360,000 personnel--additional reductions of some 110,000 will trim down some paramilitaries.

    Army General Vladimir Potapov, the Security Council's deputy secretary in charge of military reform, said the proposals reflect the leadership's analysis that for the next 10 years, "Russia won't be in a position to wage a large-scale war with conventional weapons." Potapov also emphasized that the reductions are not calculated on a proportional basis but rather with regard to what he described as "the whole scale of threats" Russia will have to face and which of its forces will best withstand them.

    Potapov's remarks are reflected in the details of the proposed reductions. The Interior Ministry will lose some 30,000 troops. Troops protecting the railways will be reduced by 10,000, and border guards by 5,000 (or 5 percent). Other special troops that will be reduced--but in so far undisclosed numbers--include those attached to the Federal Security Service, the Communications Ministry, and the Emergencies Ministry.

    But Yurii Golotyuk, military analyst of the daily "Vremya Novostei," warned that the proposals are not final until Putin signs the necessary decrees. Golotyuk argues that since it took no less than 17 council sessions to reach the present compromise, more resistance can be expected, with ministries lobbying for changes until the last minute.

    Felgenhauer, however, argues that the council's proposals are a big "step in the right direction" of the military reform Russia has been seeking, he says, for "centuries." According to him, "the Soviet leadership, the tsars all had the same problem: a gigantic army on paper, but no one to send to the front."

    But Felgenhauer adds that Russia's armed forces should be "remodeled to fight small local wars and not try to balance or challenge countries like the United States that have defense budgets 10 times, or maybe even 20 times bigger, an economy that's 10 or maybe 20 times bigger. If Russia has an economy more or less the size of that of Belgium, it should not just rationalize, it should actually thoroughly rebuild its armed forces."

    Other recent measures show that Putin is trying to realize a wider streamlining of the defense sector by centralizing the country's lucrative arms trade. Earlier this week, all of Russia's $3.5 billion worth of arms exports were put under the control of the new monopoly Rosoboroneksport, which will be directly managed by the Defense Ministry.

    Since April of this year, the business was split between two state- controlled companies, Rosvooruzhenie and Promeksport. Officials say the arms sales merger was undertaken mainly because of commercial considerations. The competition between the two old firms had led, they say, to what Putin called "an unjustified price drop in Russian arms."

    But Felgenhauer suggested that the appointment of the new monopoly's head reveals an effort to bring order into the highly profitable--but, according to some, graft-ridden--arms business. The new chief is former Promeksport deputy director Andrei Belyaninov, a one-time intelligence officer who-- like Putin-- served in Germany for a while.

    The author is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Moscow.

    13-11-00


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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