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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 179, 01-09-20

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 5, No. 179, 20 September 2001


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] ARMENIAN DEFENSE MINISTER EXPRESSES SUPPORT FOR U.S. RETALIATION
  • [02] AZERBAIJANI OIL WORKERS PROTEST DISCRIMINATION
  • [03] AZERBAIJANI POLICE DISPERSE JOURNALISTS' PROTEST
  • [04] GEORGIA PROPOSES RUSSIA, OSCE INSPECT ALLEGED CHECHEN BASE SITE
  • [05] GEORGIA CALLS ON RUSSIA TO RENEW BASES TALKS
  • [06] GEORGIAN JUSTICE MINISTER RESIGNS
  • [07] GEORGIAN GUERRILLA LEADER ACCUSES EXILED ABKHAZ AUTHORITIES
  • [08] DATE SET FOR ABKHAZ PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
  • [09] TURKISH DEFENSE MINISTER VISITS KAZAKHSTAN
  • [10] CENTRAL ASIAN STATES CLARIFY POSITION ON U.S. RETALIATORY STRIKES
  • [11] RUSSIA, TAJIKISTAN DISCUSS 'COORDINATED' RESPONSE TO TERRORISM
  • [12] UZBEKISTAN REAFFIRMS APPROVAL FOR STRIKES AGAINST AFGHANISTAN

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [13] U.S. ENVOY SLAMS MACEDONIAN MANIPULATION OF TERROR TRAGEDY...
  • [14] ...SAYS THAT U.S. POLICY IS UNCHANGED
  • [15] MACEDONIA OFFICIALLY ASKS NATO FOR NEW MISSION
  • [16] NATO BEGINS LAST PHASE OF MACEDONIAN WEAPONS COLLECTION
  • [17] MYSTERY EXPLOSIONS IN MACEDONIA
  • [18] BOSNIA: NO LINKS TO TERRORISTS
  • [19] ALBANIA PLEDGES FRESH EFFORTS AGAINST TERRORISM
  • [20] SERBIAN COALITION WANTS MORE TALKS ON KOSOVA ELECTIONS
  • [21] SERBIAN MINISTER: UN SAYS NO INDEPENDENCE FOR KOSOVA
  • [22] SERBIAN PRIME MINISTER OPTIMISTIC ON KOSOVA
  • [23] U.S. AMBASSADOR TO CROATIA: NO ISOLATIONISM
  • [24] CROATS SEE ROLE IN ANTITERROR COALITION
  • [25] CROATIAN PARLIAMENT DEBATES SOCIAL CUTS
  • [26] ROMANIA TO FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM AS A 'NATO ALLY'
  • [27] TRADE UNION FEDERATION DENOUNCES AGREEMENT WITH GOVERNMENT
  • [28] ROMANIAN PREMIER ON RELATIONS WITH MOLDOVA
  • [29] BULGARIAN MINISTER PREPARES FOR DEATH SENTENCES IN LIBYAN TRIAL
  • [30] BULGARIA SETS DATE FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [31] Russian Politicians Reposition Themselves in Wake of Attack On U.S.

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] ARMENIAN DEFENSE MINISTER EXPRESSES SUPPORT FOR U.S. RETALIATION

    The Armenian government "cannot fail to support" U.S. military action against states suspected of harboring the masterminds behind last week's terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, Serzh Sarkisian told journalists in Yerevan on 19 September, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. But he declined to specify what concrete forms Armenia's support for retaliatory strikes might take. LF

    [02] AZERBAIJANI OIL WORKERS PROTEST DISCRIMINATION

    Foreign oil companies operating in Azerbaijan discriminate against Azerbaijani employees by paying them substantially less than they pay Western staff, Turan quoted the chairwoman of the Committee for the Rights of Oil Industry Workers, Mirvari Gakhrimanly, as saying at a seminar in Baku on 19 September. She claimed that British specialists are paid $8,000- $10,000 per month and those from the Near East $5,000-$6,000 per month, while Azerbaijanis receive only $600-$1,200. She added that Azerbaijani employees of foreign oil companies are not permitted to join trade unions, and consequently there is no official body to represent their interests. LF

    [03] AZERBAIJANI POLICE DISPERSE JOURNALISTS' PROTEST

    Police in Baku on 19 September used violence to break up a protest outside the Supreme Court by journalists of the newspaper "Ulus," which supports exiled former parliament speaker Rasul Guliev, Turan reported. At least three journalists were injured, one of them seriously. The journalists had sought to present a petition to the court on behalf of the editor and deputy editor of the paper, who were arrested on 13 July on charges of having insulted and resorted to physical violence eight days earlier against a former journalist with the paper. That journalist, Aybeniz Ilgar, had accused the two editors of assaulting her after she submitted her resignation following an unsanctioned two-month absence from work. LF

    [04] GEORGIA PROPOSES RUSSIA, OSCE INSPECT ALLEGED CHECHEN BASE SITE

    Following the Russian Foreign Ministry's 18 September statement accusing Georgia of failing to prevent Chechen "terrorists" from using its territory (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 September 2001), Georgian Border Guards commander Lieutenant General Valeri Chkheidze proposed on 19 September that Russian troops together with the OSCE should inspect Georgia's Pankisi gorge, where Russian media claim that Chechen militants are hiding out, to determine whether any Chechen fighters are based there, Caucasus Press and Interfax reported. Chkheidze said that if the Russian allegations prove true, Georgia will participate in joint military activities with Russia against the Chechen interlopers. LF

    [05] GEORGIA CALLS ON RUSSIA TO RENEW BASES TALKS

    On 19 September the Georgian Foreign Ministry formally proposed to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov to set a date for the resumption of talks on the future of Russia's military bases in Georgia, Prime News and Interfax-AVN reported on 19 September. The most recent talks on that issue took place in Moscow in early August (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 August 2001). At that time, it was stated that the following round of talks would be held in October, but Interfax on 19 September quoted Georgian Foreign Ministry spokesman Kakha Sikharulidze as stating that Georgia wants them brought forward to before the end of this month. LF

    [06] GEORGIAN JUSTICE MINISTER RESIGNS

    Mikhail Saakashvili announced late on 19 September his resignation from the post of justice minister to which he was appointed in October 2000, Caucasus Press reported. In a live interview on the independent TV station Rustavi-2, Saakashvili explained that he considers it "immoral" to remain a member of a government that takes no steps to eradicate corruption and has failed to fulfill the preelection promises made by the majority Union of Citizens of Georgia. A draft bill proposed by Saakashvili that would have required government officials to reveal the source of their wealth was widely criticized by senior officials last month (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 4, No. 30, 16 August 2001 and No. 31, 10 September 2001). Saakashvili also said that he plans to participate in the upcoming by- election in the Tbilisi district of Vake. That was the seat that Saakashvili vacated after his appointment as justice minister last year. LF

    [07] GEORGIAN GUERRILLA LEADER ACCUSES EXILED ABKHAZ AUTHORITIES

    Forest Brothers guerrilla organization head Dato Shengelaia on 19 September accused unnamed senior members of the Abkhaz government in exile, which is composed of the Georgian members of the Abkhaz government who fled during the war of 1992-1993, of masterminding the 2 September attack on his home in Zugdidi in which his wife's parents were killed, Caucasus Press reported. Shengelaia initially blamed the Abkhaz for the shootings (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 September 2001). He said on 19 September that he himself was the intended victim of the killings, and that he knows the identity of those responsible. LF

    [08] DATE SET FOR ABKHAZ PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

    Abkhaz President Vladislav Ardzinba on 19 September scheduled parliamentary elections for 24 November, according to Prime News, as cited by Groong. LF

    [09] TURKISH DEFENSE MINISTER VISITS KAZAKHSTAN

    Visiting Turkish Defense Minister Sabahattin Cakmakoglu discussed bilateral military cooperation with his Kazakh counterpart Lieutenant General Sat Toqpaqbaev in Almaty on 19 September, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported. Cakmakoglu announced that Turkey will give the Kazakh armed forces some 30 military vehicles and other military-technical aid worth some $800,000 in 2001. That aid is the first installment of some $10 million that Ankara has pledged over the next decade (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 August 2001). LF

    [10] CENTRAL ASIAN STATES CLARIFY POSITION ON U.S. RETALIATORY STRIKES

    Officials from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, all of which have expressed their support in principle for a U.S. counterstrike against Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, on 19 September distanced themselves from Western media reports that their governments have already either offered, or acceded to U.S. requests, to make their military facilities available to the U.S. for that purpose. Kazakhstan's National Security Committee chairman Marat Tazhin told Interfax that the U.S. has not yet addressed such a request to Kazakhstan. The Turkmen Foreign Ministry issued a similar statement saying no such request has been received, ITAR-TASS reported. It added that Turkmenistan's response to any such request would be dictated by its neutral status. Meeting in Tashkent on 19 September with visiting Russian Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushailo, Uzbek President Islam Karimov affirmed that "Uzbekistan has not yet given any commitments and not held any talks with the United States on providing its airspace and military bases for strikes on Afghanistan," AP reported. LF

    [11] RUSSIA, TAJIKISTAN DISCUSS 'COORDINATED' RESPONSE TO TERRORISM

    Following his talks in Tashkent, Rushailo flew to Dushanbe on 19 September for consultations with President Imomali Rakhmonov on the situation in Afghanistan and Central Asia as a whole, Russian agencies reported. In comments to journalists following those talks, Rushailo described Tajikistan as being "in the forefront" of the struggle against international terrorism. He said he and Rakhmonov discussed coordinating measures to combat terrorism, including blocking financial support for terrorist groups, but did not agree on any concrete steps. Asked whether Moscow is ready to cooperate with the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, Rushailo said that said Russia "undoubtedly" wants to prevent the Taliban taking control of the entire territory of Afghanistan, and that the Northern Alliance is the sole power preventing the Taliban from doing so, Interfax reported. "We are carefully studying" the situation within the Northern Alliance following the 14 September death of its military commander Ahmed Shah Massoud, Rushailo added. LF

    [12] UZBEKISTAN REAFFIRMS APPROVAL FOR STRIKES AGAINST AFGHANISTAN

    During his talks with Rushailo on 19 September, President Karimov said that if an investigation proves that the 11 September terrorist attacks were prepared on the territory of Afghanistan, then "there must be retaliation," ITAR-TASS reported. He characterized Afghanistan as one of the locations where terrorists from all over the world are trained. At the same time, he called for "new methods of fighting" terrorism, primarily by blocking channels of financial support to those who engage in it. In a telephone conversation later on 19 September with U.S. President George W. Bush, the two presidents agreed on the need to intensify efforts to counter the "global phenomenon" of terrorism and to eliminate its roots and sources of financial support. LF

    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [13] U.S. ENVOY SLAMS MACEDONIAN MANIPULATION OF TERROR TRAGEDY...

    James Pardew, the U.S. special envoy in Macedonia, told Reuters in Skopje on 20 September that the Macedonian authorities have sought political gain from the terrorist tragedy in the U.S. by trying to place the ethnic Albanian guerrillas on the same footing with the terrorists who attacked the U.S. (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 September 2001 and "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 18 September 2001). Pardew said: "Comparisons between what happened in Macedonia and the events in the United States last week are completely false. I am informing the government that we object to the use of the tragedy for local political advantage or to attempt to delay or disrupt the peace process ongoing in Macedonia." PM

    [14] ...SAYS THAT U.S. POLICY IS UNCHANGED

    Pardew also told Reuters in Skopje on 20 September that "there have been public statements [in Macedonia] about the U.S. reevaluating its position in Macedonia based on what happened in New York, and we see that as an attempt to delay or disrupt the peace process by redefining the situation here... I am advising Macedonian leaders that there is no change to U.S. policy toward Macedonia based on the tragic events last week. I am telling them that we stand completely behind the framework peace agreement and its 45-day timetable for implementation." Pardew stressed that "the international community will not forgive any people in Macedonia who seek to delay, distort, or disrupt parliamentary endorsement of the framework agreement or who seek to return to the hills to threaten violence." PM

    [15] MACEDONIA OFFICIALLY ASKS NATO FOR NEW MISSION

    NATO spokesman Mark Laity said in Skopje on 19 September that the Atlantic alliance has received an official request from the Macedonian authorities to provide a small, lightly armed force to protect unarmed monitors after Operation Essential Harvest ends on 26 September, RFE/RL reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 September 2001). Laity added that the Macedonians are "prepared to support a light NATO presence in the country after Operation Essential Harvest, to provide additional contributions to the security of monitors. And they've asked whether NATO would accept such a mission. It's now being discussed in the North Atlantic Council... We assume [the force] will be very small because this is a specific, limited mission. But the exact size and composition of that force needs to be discussed between the government of Macedonia and within NATO itself, because these are our forces." But AP reported on 20 September that the UNHCR wants a larger force that can assist the return of refugees and displaced persons. PM.

    [16] NATO BEGINS LAST PHASE OF MACEDONIAN WEAPONS COLLECTION

    Essential Harvest entered its final phase in Macedonia on 20 September, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 September 2001). In Skopje, the parliament is scheduled to continue its debate on a controversial proposal for a referendum on proposed constitutional amendments. Speaking in Brussels on 19 September, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said: "Two months would be needed to organize a referendum, and this would put us in a difficult situation... We are working to ensure this does not happen," Reuters reported. PM

    [17] MYSTERY EXPLOSIONS IN MACEDONIA

    The Interior Ministry said on 19 September that it has established full control on the Skopje-Tetovo-Gostivar highway, much of which passes through ethnic Albanian areas, dpa reported from Skopje on 20 September. Police have established several checkpoints along the road. During the night of 19- 20 September, explosions damaged the Albanian-owned Seven Brothers gasoline station, which is just off the highway. Property was damaged but no injuries were reported. Police allowed traffic back on the road after they removed some unspecified explosives placed under the highway. The police named no suspects in the gas station incident or in the placing of the additional explosive devices. In related news, police spokesman Vasko Sutarov told AP that all police units in the tense areas of Zilce and Ratae have been replaced by the army (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 September 2001). PM

    [18] BOSNIA: NO LINKS TO TERRORISTS

    The Foreign Ministry said in Sarajevo on 19 September that Interpol wants information regarding 19 unspecified citizens of Islamic countries in conjunction with the terrorist attacks on the U.S., dpa reported. The ministry stressed that the relevant Bosnian institutions have determined that there is no link between Bosnia and the attacks. The ministry noted that only 420 individuals of Arab or Turkish origin were granted Bosnian citizenship during the 1992-1995 war. Elsewhere, the Bosnian branch of Interpol noted that there are no terrorist training camps in Bosnia and that Osama bin Laden does not have Bosnian citizenship, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. In related news, the BBC's Serbian Service on 20 September quoted Yugoslav Defense Minister Slobodan Krapovic as saying that he knows of no activities by bin Laden anywhere in the former Yugoslavia. PM

    [19] ALBANIA PLEDGES FRESH EFFORTS AGAINST TERRORISM

    In Rome on 19 September, Italian Foreign Minister Renato Ruggiero said that Albanian Prime Minister Ilir Meta has promised to fight all the harder against terrorism, corruption, and organized crime as part of Albania's campaign for integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions, AP reported. PM

    [20] SERBIAN COALITION WANTS MORE TALKS ON KOSOVA ELECTIONS

    Leaders of the governing Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) coalition met in Belgrade on 19 September to discuss whether to urge Kosova Serbs to participate in the 17 November elections but reached no decision, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 September 2001). Instead, the coalition asked Deputy Prime Minister Nebojsa Covic, who is responsible for south Serbian and Kosovar affairs, to continue talks with representatives of the international community about the conditions under which the Serbs might take part. Belgrade wants the international community to ensure security for returning refugees and existing Serbian enclaves in Kosova before giving its blessing to the elections. Some of the province's Serbian minority fear that they must take part in the vote or risk further political isolation and loss of influence in Kosova's affairs. PM

    [21] SERBIAN MINISTER: UN SAYS NO INDEPENDENCE FOR KOSOVA

    Covic told "Vesti" of 20 September that on his recent visit to the Security Council in New York, he received unspecified "guarantees" that Kosova will not become independent after the elections. He stressed that the idea that independence is a realistic possibility in the near future represents the "wishful thinking" of an unspecified "pro-Albanian media campaign." He believes that an unspecified Serbian role will be restored in the province through the "internationalization" of the Kosova question and after a "transitional" period of foreign administration. Covic called "interesting" the proposal by local Serbs to form a "Serbian Defense Corps." The minister argued that there is a link between the violence in New York and "that which goes on every day" in Kosova and Macedonia, and that both forms of violence must be equally opposed. He did not specify how he plans to deal with the 90 percent ethnic Albanian majority, which wants nothing more to do with Serbia. It is not clear if his statements reflect his actual beliefs, or if he made them out of Serbian internal political considerations. PM

    [22] SERBIAN PRIME MINISTER OPTIMISTIC ON KOSOVA

    In Belgrade on 19 September, Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic said that he believes that a Serbian "presence" will be restored in Kosova through unspecified institutions and cooperation with the UN civilian administration, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. He noted that the Albanians' road to Europe goes through Serbia. PM

    [23] U.S. AMBASSADOR TO CROATIA: NO ISOLATIONISM

    Lawrence Rossin said in Zagreb on 19 September that Washington has no intention of withdrawing from its commitments in Southeastern Europe or elsewhere following the attacks on the U.S., RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 18 September 2001). PM

    [24] CROATS SEE ROLE IN ANTITERROR COALITION

    On 20 September, "Jutarnji list" summarized the views of several politically prominent Croats on their country's prospective role in the antiterror coalition (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 September 2001). Former General Anton Tus noted that the coalition will bring Croatia closer to NATO. Former Foreign Minister Mate Granic said that each country must now stand up and be counted. Deputy Prime Minister Goran Granic told Ambassador Rossin that "we are all soldiers in the fight against terrorism," "Novi List" reported. The Rijeka daily, however, also published two critical commentaries, one suggesting that Croatia would do better to concentrate on social problems and the other arguing that the country should not become a cog in machine run by others. PM

    [25] CROATIAN PARLIAMENT DEBATES SOCIAL CUTS

    The parliament began discussions on 20 September on the government's proposed legal changes that will lead to a cut in social programs, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ), which was in power from 1990 until the beginning of 2000, opposes the changes as antisocial and detrimental to the overall standard of living. The government argues that it must drastically reduce expenditures and accuses the HDZ of hunting for issues with which to win votes. The government also introduced proposals to reduce the rights and privileges of veterans of the 1991-1995 war of independence. The government says that the HDZ unfairly favored this group at the expense of the taxpayer because the veterans were generally loyal to that party. Some veterans' leaders maintain that the cuts are part of a program of revenge by former communists against their conservative political enemies. In related news, the new rector of Zagreb University, Tomislav Ivancic, said that he opposes tuition fees lest "only the rich be able to study," "Jutarnji list" reported. PM

    [26] ROMANIA TO FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM AS A 'NATO ALLY'

    The Romanian parliament on 19 September approved President Ion Iliescu's request to act as a "NATO ally" in the fight against terrorism, Romanian media reported. Romania is to offer NATO full access to any Romanian airspace, land, and waterways that could be needed to support military responses to the terrorist attacks on the United States. Serbian minority representative deputy Slawomir Gozdenovici abstained from the voting, citing the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia as his reason not to support NATO in this campaign. Ruling Social-Democratic Party (PSD) parliamentary group leader Viorel Hrebenciuc said joining the U.S. and NATO in their fight against terrorism is in the long-term strategic interest of Romania. In 1999 the PSD was critical of the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. In related news, a Gallup opinion poll published by "Adevarul" on 20 September and conducted in the wake of the attacks on the U.S., shows that 52 percent of Romanians oppose their country's participation in retaliatory action. ZsM

    [27] TRADE UNION FEDERATION DENOUNCES AGREEMENT WITH GOVERNMENT

    The Cartel Alfa trade union federation on 18 September announced that it is unilaterally ending a February agreement with the government and employers, Mediafax reported. Trade union leaders said the government failed to fulfill several points in the agreement, such as modifying the public pension system and promoting the creation of new jobs. Labor and Social Solidarity Minister Marian Sirbu denied the charges, arguing that the government has fulfilled all its obligations. The "social pact" had stipulated that the unions would not undertake labor action, in exchange for the government's pledge to raise living standards. ZsM

    [28] ROMANIAN PREMIER ON RELATIONS WITH MOLDOVA

    Adrian Nastase said relations with Moldova are still "special," but have changed somewhat due to the results of the parliamentary elections in February that brought the Moldovan Communists to power, Flux reported on 19 September. Nastase also said a Romanian-Moldovan basic treaty is not on either side's agenda. The premier conditioned his visit to Chisinau in October on progress in implementing several "economic projects." He recently criticized the Moldovan government for canceling announced tenders Romania was interested in regarding electricity networks in Moldova. ZsM

    [29] BULGARIAN MINISTER PREPARES FOR DEATH SENTENCES IN LIBYAN TRIAL

    Justice Minister Anton Stankov said in Sofia that the government is expecting "heavy sentences," including possibly the death penalty, when a verdict in the case of six Bulgarian medics charged with intentionally infecting nearly 400 children with HIV is delivered by a Libyan court on 22 September, Reuters reported on 20 September. Stankov, who heads a government commission set up to help the Bulgarians, said "if there are convictions, we will appeal." The medics' Libyan lawyer, Osman Byzanti, said a decision on an appeal could take anywhere from one month to one year. Two nurses among the six have alleged they confessed to the charges under duress -- after being tortured in prison -- and have since retracted their confessions. Seif Islam Ghadaffi, the son of Libyan leader Muammar Ghadaffi, has observed parts of the trial and is thought by the Bulgarian Foreign Ministry to have an interest in the case. PB

    [30] BULGARIA SETS DATE FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

    The Bulgarian parliament decided to hold the country's presidential election on 11 November, Reuters reported on 20 September. The only announced candidate is incumbent Petar Stoyanov, who is running for reelection as an independent. Most observers think that Prime Minister Simeon Saxecoburggotski, the most popular politician in the country, will nominate a candidate who would immediately be a strong contender for the post. PB

    [C] END NOTE

    [31] Russian Politicians Reposition Themselves in Wake of Attack On U.S.

    By Julie A. Corwin

    Although Russian Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref promised that the terrorist attacks on the U.S. would have no effect on the Russian economy and Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushailo said that no changes -- even in Russia's foreign policy -- should be expected, don't believe them.

    President Vladimir Putin was among the first foreign leaders to extend his condolences to the American people, and the reverberations of the event rippled just as quickly through the Moscow political scene in a multitude of different directions, affecting not just Russian national security policy but also domestic economic and political policies.

    The list of policies that may now undergo review is a long one. Even before the attacks, it was already clear that the draft 2002 budget's basic parameters would face challenges from the State Duma. But now, advocates for higher defense and security spending have new ammunition. And those groups supporting a greater Russian activism internationally have found an impetus for a new push. The military campaign in Chechnya may intensify, as Union of Rightist Forces Duma (SPS) faction leader Boris Nemtsov has abruptly abandoned his quest for a negotiated peace in Chechnya.

    With regard to next year's budget, Duma Defense Committee Chairman (People's Deputy) Andrei Nikolaev announced on 17 September that his committee will insist on increased expenditures for defense spending. While this was likely to happen anyway -- Nikolaev pleaded for higher defense spending last year -- he will now have more allies in his quest. On 18 September, Duma deputy speaker (Unity) Lyubov Sliska also called for higher defense spending, and Duma speaker Gennadii Seleznev spoke in favor of increasing funds for combating terrorism. Russian intelligence services can also more convincingly make their own cases for greater resources in light of the failure of their U.S. counterparts to predict or prevent the attacks. As Aleksandr Zdanovich, the head of the Assistance Programs Directorate of the Federal Security Service, noted on 13 September, "There is an old axiom, you know: truly professional secret services prevent crimes, and all the others investigate them after the fact." The implicit argument is that intelligence is not something worth skimping on.

    The oil price spike following the attacks may also benefit those seeking higher defense expenditures. In addition, many analysts believe that the opening of a U.S. bombing campaign would likely return prices to the high levels recorded last week. But even without the aid of higher crude prices, the Duma's Budget Committee was already prepared to argue with the government over the draft budget's key parameters. Committee experts believe that Russian GDP in 2002 will be 400 billion rubles higher than the cabinet's figures indicate -- that is, 11 trillion rubles versus 10.6 trillion. So as has been done in the past, the government may be able "find" additional money for defense by redoing its calculations. Another potential source of cash may be money set aside for education and court reforms. Although deemed high priority, these reforms are multiyear projects, which cabinet ministers, faced with what seem like more immediate pressing problems, may decide to postpone one more year.

    A more general consequence of the events of 11 September may be the heightened awareness among Russian policymakers and public of the tight linkage between the fortunes of the Russian economy and that of the U.S. "Izvestiya" noted on 15 September that "the crash of the dollar could practically destroy our financial system." While this is probably an overstatement, it is a fact that Russian Central Bank head Viktor Gerashchenko along with other economic policymakers across Russia spent a considerable amount of time on 11 and 12 September talking up the dollar.

    In the sphere of foreign policy, Russian policymakers adopted a kind of "told you so" stance toward the 11 September events, calling attention to President Putin's previous calls for world states to unite against terrorism. Likewise, opponents of the U.S. plans to develop a missile defense system emphasized the wisdom of their opposition to that plan, since the system would not have been able to prevent the attack on the World Trade Center. At the same time, other Russian policymakers saw new opportunities for Russia resulting from the U.S.'s inevitable reconcentration of its resources on combating terrorism. Liberal Democratic Party of Russia leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky suggested that Russia can now act as a gendarme for Europe.

    The United States's new focus on terrorism is also expected to give the Kremlin more latitude in resolving the conflict in Chechnya. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov declared on 13 September that he hopes the world will now understand what Russia has been up against in Chechnya. And news reports in Russian media have trumpeted alleged links between Chechen military commanders Shamil Basaev and Khattab and international terrorist Osama bin Laden. Sensing a shift in the public's mood, SPS leader Nemtsov revised his recent position calling for negotiations with Chechen leaders, telling "Moskovskii komsomolets" on 13 September that in light of the terrorist attacks, talks with Chechens are now "impossible." Nemtsov explained that he "never advocated negotiations with [Chechen President Aslan] Maskhadov or with terrorists... They should be destroyed -- that's the long and short of it... But once all of the ringleaders have been taken out, we may talk to representatives of the Chechen people. Waging a war on a whole people is impossible," he said.

    And echoing concerns expressed about the U.S., political scientist Yelena Shestopal argued in an interview with "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 13 September that an intensified battle against terrorism in Russia may lead to "some restrictions on civil rights and liberties." She noted that Russia's executive branch will have to take the lead in the battle since "the problem of terrorism is not solved by laws." Such a prediction should provide little comfort to those observers who had already noted a tension between the Putin administration's rhetorical emphasis on establishing a rule of law state and its efforts to centralize decision making, squash independent media, and selectively enforce laws aimed at the Kremlin's political opponents.

    20-09-01


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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