Subject: TURKEY'S ROUGH NEIGHBORHOOD (1) BY ED WARNER/WASHINGTON Topic: voa From: yanni@ix.netcom.com (Ioannis Bousnakis) DATE=4/19/95 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-20249 TITLE=TURKEY'S ROUGH NEIGHBORHOOD (1) BYLINE=ED WARNER DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: TURKISH PRIME MINISTER TANCU CILLER HAS BEEN IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK TO MEET PRESIDENT CLINTON AND SHE HAS FACED QUESTIONS ABOUT TURKEY'S INCURSION INTO NORTHERN IRAQ IN PURSUIT OF THE GUERRILLA FORCES KNOWN AS THE P-K-K. THE PRIME MINISTER HAS SAID TURKISH TROOPS WILL BE WITHDRAWN BUT HAS GIVEN NO FIRM DATE. THE UNITED STATES SUPPORTED THE RAID BUT IS ANXIOUS FOR IT TO BE CONCLUDED. ON MOST OTHER MATTERS, THE TWO LEADERS ARE EXPECTED TO AGREE WITH SOME DIFFERENCES OVER THE FUTURE OF IRAQ. IN THIS REPORT (THE FIRST OF TWO), VOA'S ED WARNER TALKS TO TWO ANALYSTS ABOUT TURKEY'S INTERNATIONAL ROLE. TEXT: TURKEY'S LOCATION PRESENTS IT, PERHAPS, WITH THE MOST GEO-POLITICAL PROBLEMS OF ANY NATION ON EARTH. IT IS BORDERED BY EIGHT COUNTRIES, BUT ONLY BULGARIA IS VIEWED FROM ANKARA AS BOTH STABLE AND FRIENDLY. THE OTHER NEIGHBORS PRESENT A VARIETY OF THREATS, RANGING FROM MERELY ANNOYING TO QUITE DEADLY. SABRI SAYARI IS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF TURKISH STUDIES IN WASHINGTON AND PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS AT GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: // SAYARI ACTUALITY // CERTAINLY WHEN YOU'RE NEXT DOOR, LET'S SAY, TO THREE COUNTRIES -- IRAN, IRAQ, SYRIA, ALL OF WHICH ARE ON THE STATE DEPARTMENT'S LIST OF STATE SPONSORS OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM -- OBVIOUSLY YOU ARE LOOKING AT A VERY CRITICAL SITUATION. PLUS THERE IS INSTABILITY ALONG THE BORDER SUCH AS ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN, INSTABILITY IN THE BALKANS, NONE OF WHICH IS REALLY OF TURKEY'S MAKING, BUT TURKEY HAS TO RESPOND TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS AND CHALLENGES. // END ACT // TURKEY IS RESPONDING, SAYS SOLI OZEL, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF MIDDLE EAST STUDIES AT JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON. PRIME MINISTER TANCU CILLER, FOR EXAMPLE, RECENTLY SIGNED AN OIL AGREEMENT WITH AZERBAIJAN WHICH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES TURKEY'S SHARE OF AZERBAIJANI PRODUCTION PLANS: // OZEL ACTUALITY // TURKEY IS A SUPPORTER OF THE AZERI REGIME AND THEIR INDEPENDENCE AND TRYING TO MEDIATE BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA IN A VERY CONSTRUCTIVE WAY. THE PROBLEM, OF COURSE, FOR TURKEY AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE WORLD IS YOU JUST DON'T KNOW WHERE THE RUSSIANS ARE GOING TO STOP BECAUSE IF THEY WANT TO RENEGOTIATE THE CONVENTIONAL ARMS AGREEMENT, THAT OPENS AN ENTIRE CAN OF WORMS, (NUMEROUS ISSUES TO RESOLVE) AND THEY MIGHT WANT TO HAVE MORE TROOPS ON THE TURKISH BORDER IN ARMENIA AND WHATEVER. THAT WOULD CREATE A SITUATION THAT NOBODY HAD FORESEEN THREE YEARS AGO. // END ACT // THERE'S NO IMMEDIATE SIGN OF RUSSIAN PROVOCATIONS, SAYS PROFESSOR OZEL, BUT WITH RISING RUSSIAN NATIONALISM ISLAMIC TURKEY COULD APPEAR TO BE A POTENTIAL ADVERSARY. TURKEY ALWAYS HAS LIVED IN A ROUGH NEIGHBORHOOD, HE ADDS, AND IT IS EVEN ROUGHER IN THE POST COLD WAR ERA. TURKEY'S BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS NORTHERN IRAQ, WHICH TURKISH TROOPS RECENTLY ENTERED TO ATTACK GUERRILLA FORCES OF THE KURDISH WORKERS PARTY, AN OUTLAWED INSURGENT GROUP, ALSO KNOWN AS THE P-K-K. PROFESSOR SAYARI THINKS THE CROSS-BORDER RAID HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SUCCESSFUL, BUT THE AREA REMAINS AN INVITATION TO ANARCHY: // SAYARI ACTUALITY // TURKEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE POWER VACUUM WHICH EXISTS IN NORTHERN IRAQ TO BE FILLED IN SOME FASHION. I THINK WHAT TURKEY IS SEEKING TO DO IS REACH SOME KIND OF AN AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHERN IRAQI KURDISH GROUPS SO THAT THEY WOULD HAVE THE BORDER AREA NEAR TURKEY UNDER CONTROL. SINCE THE GULF WAR, THE VARIOUS IRAQI KURDISH FORCES HAVE NOT MANAGED TO REACH AN AGREEMENT AND ESTABLISH A PRESENCE IN PARTS OF THIS TERRITORY, WHICH HAS ENABLED THE P-K-K TO USE THIS AREA AS A MEANS FOR LOGISTICAL SUPPORT AND SO FORTH. SO FOR TURKEY THE INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS IN IRAQ CREATES A MAJOR PROBLEM. // END ACT // TURKEY IS INVOLVED IN A MOST COMPLICATED ARRANGEMENT. FROM BASES INSIDE TURKEY U-S PLANES PROTECT KURDS IN NORTHERN IRAQ FROM SADDAM HUSSEIN. AT THE SAME TIME, THE KURDISH P-K-K, OPERATES AT WILL OUT OF NORTHERN IRAQ TO CARRY OUT ARMED REBELLION IN SOUTHEAST TURKEY. IRAQ HAS NO CONTROL OF ITS BORDER THERE. PROFESOR OZEL SAYS TURKEY IS FAR MORE INVOLVED IN IRAQ THAN IT WANTS TO BE. WITH THE P-K-K ON THE RUN, HE BELIEVES IT IS TIME FOR A POLITICAL SOLUTION TO TURKEY'S KURDISH PROBLEM. THE DEVASTATION IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS CAUSED SOME REFUGEE FLIGHT TO TURKEY'S ALREADY OVERCROWDED CITIES, MAKING THE CONFLICT AN EVEN MORE COSTLY BURDEN FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY. (SIGNED) NEB/EW/CF 19-Apr-95 1:14 PM EDT (1714 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America