Subject: TURKEY'S ROUGH NEIGHBORHOOD (2) BY ED WARNER/WASHINGTON Topic: voa From: yanni@ix.netcom.com (Ioannis Bousnakis) DATE=4/19/95 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-20250 TITLE=TURKEY'S ROUGH NEIGHBORHOOD (2) BYLINE=ED WARNER DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: TURKEY WAS CONSIDERED A VITAL U.S. ALLY DURING THE COLD WAR. MORE RECENTLY, TURKEY'S ROLE IS DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT BUT THOUGHT TO BE NO LESS IMPORTANT TO U.S. AND WESTERN INTERESTS. STANDING BETWEEN EAST AND WEST, BETWEEN CHRISTIAN AND MUSLIM NATIONS, IT SERVES AS BOTH A BRIDGE AND A BULWARK. YET IT IS BESET BY MANY PROBLEMS, WHICH ARE BEING DISCUSSED THIS WEEK AS PRIME MINISTER TANCU CILLER MEETS PRESIDENT CLINTON IN WASHINGTON. IN THIS REPORT (THE SECOND OF TWO), VOA'S ED WARNER TALKS TO TWO ANALYSTS ABOUT CURRENT RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO NATIONS. TEXT: THE U-S GOVERNMENT SAYS IT WANTS TO ENCOURAGE DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT IN TURKEY AND AT THE SAME TIME HELP PROTECT IT AGAINST ADVERSARIES WITHIN ITS BORDERS AND BEYOND. BUT MANY TURKS CLAIM U-S POLICY HARMS TURKEY WHILE TURKEY IS ENGAGED IN COMBATTING ARMED REBELLION IN THE SOUTHEAST. U-S SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAQ HAVE SHUT DOWN THE OIL PIPELINE FROM IRAQ TO TURKEY, WHICH IS VITAL TO THE ECONOMY OF THE SOUTHEAST. IMPOVERISHMENT THERE HAS HELPED THE OUTLAWED KURDISH WORKERS PARTY, KNOWN AS THE P-K-K, TO RECRUIT GUERRILLAS. IN NORTHERN IRAQ KURDISH GROUPS FIGHT AMONG THEMSELVES AND THE POWER VACUUM THERE ENABLES P-K-K REBELS TO ESCAPE TURKISH ARMY PURSUIT. UNDERSTANDABLY, SAYS SABRI SAYARI, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF TURKISH STUDIES IN WASHINGTON, TURKEY WOULD LIKE A CHANGE IN POLICY: // SAYARI ACTUALITY // TURKS ARE VERY INTERESTED IN HAVING THE U-N SANCTIONS REMOVED BECAUSE THAT HAS BEEN HURTING THE TURKISH ECONOMY IN A MAJOR WAY, WHEREAS, AS WE KNOW, THE U-S IS STILL INTERESTED IN ISOLATING SADDAM HUSSEIN AND USING THE SANCTIONS AS A MEANS OF ULTIMATELY REMOVING HIM. THE WHOLE ISSUE OF THE FUTURE OF IRAQ -- ON THAT THE TWO COUNTRIES PERHAPS MAY NOT SEE EYE TO EYE. I THINK TURKS, HAVING BEEN NEIGHBORS OF THAT BRUTAL REGIME IN IRAQ, PROBABLY HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN (PROSPECTS FOR) THE DOWNFALL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN ANY TIME NEAR. // END ACT // PROFESSOR SAYARI HASTENS TO ADD THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS IN GENERAL BEEN VERY SUPPORTIVE OF TURKEY. IT FAVORS TURKEY'S ADMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION, WHILE MOST EUROPEAN MEMBERS ARE COOL TO THE IDEA. THE UNITED STATES ALSO SUPPORTS BUILDING AN OIL PIPELINE FROM THE CAUCASUS THROUGH TURKEY INSTEAD OF THROUGH RUSSIA OR IRAN -- A MATTER DISCUSSED IN SOME DEPTH AT PRIME MINISTER CILLER'S MEETING WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON THIS WEEK. PROFESSOR SOLI OZEL, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF MIDDLE EAST STUDIES AT JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON, THINKS THE U.S. POLICY OF DUAL CONTAINMENT OF IRAN AND IRAQ WILL NOT RESOLVE THE REGION'S POLITICAL PROBLEMS: // OZEL ACTUALITY // ON THE OTHER HAND, VARIOUS PEOPLE IN THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION HAVE BEEN VERY UNDERSTANDING AND SUPPORTIVE OF MANY THINGS THAT THE TURKISH AUTHORITIES DO. I THINK THEY HAVE GIVEN UNEQUIVOCAL SUPPORT TO TURKEY IN THE FIGHT AGAINST THE P-K-K. BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOT MORE PRESSURE PUT ON TURKEY TO GET ITS DOMESTIC DEMOCRATIC HOUSE IN ORDER BECAUSE TURKEY CANNOT CONTINUE TO CLAIM THAT IT IS ABOUT TO DEMOCRATIZE WHEN IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A DEMOCRACY FOR THE PAST 50 YEARS, MIND YOU. // END ACT // PROFESSOR OZEL CONCEDES THERE ARE MANY HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES IN TURKEY, RELATED IN PART TO THE P-K-K REBELLION AND TO THE RISE OF A FERVENT ISLAMIC POLITICAL PARTY CALLED "REFAH," OR "WELFARE." IN LAST YEAR'S ELECTIONS, REFAH WON A SURPRISING NUMBER OF OFFICES, INCLUDING MAYORS OF ISTANBUL AND ANKARA. PROFESSOR OZEL SAYS IT IS CRUCIAL TO TREAT REFAH DEMOCRATICALLY AND NOT OVERREACT: // OZEL ACTUALITY // I DON'T BELIEVE IN ANY POLITICAL PARTY WHICH TRIES TO KEEP TURKEY IN A STRAIT JACKET BY PROJECTING UPON A VERY DIVERSE SOCIETY A VERY SIMPLISTIC VISION OF HOW THAT SOCIETY OUGHT TO BE ORGANIZED. I DON'T THINK ANY SUCH PARTY CAN BE SUCCESSFUL. HOWEVER, I THINK ONE OUGHT TO LOOK AT THE SUCCESS OF THE WELFARE PARTY MOSTLY IN POLITICAL AND SOCIAL TERMS. THERE ARE VERY GOOD REASONS FOR PEOPLE TO BE EXTREMELY RESENTFUL OF THE EXISTING ORDER OF THINGS -- DISTRIBUTION OF POWER, DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME AND THE EXISTENCE OF CORRUPTION. POLLS INDICATE THEIR SUPPORT IS MAINLY PEOPLE EITHER PROTESTING OR JUST BEING SYMPATHETIC BUT NOT NECESSARILY VISUALIZING AN ISLAMIC SOCIETY IN TURKEY. // END ACT // PROFESSOR OZEL SAYS REFAH HAS BEEN EXEMPLARY IN PROVIDING SERVICES TO THE POOR NEWCOMERS TO ISTANBUL AND ANKARA AND HAS AVOIDED THE CORRUPTION HE BELIEVES IS TOO PREVALENT IN CURRENT POLITICS. ONE ANSWER TO TURKEY'S SOCIAL PROBLEMS, SAY THE TWO PROFESSORS, IS REDUCING INFLATION AND PRIVATIZING THE INEFFICIENT STATE OWNED INDUSTRIES THAT CONSUME SO MUCH OF THE NATION'S BUDGET. (SIGNED) NEB/EW/CF 19-Apr-95 1:36 PM EDT (1736 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America