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Voice of America, 31 October 1995

From: yanni@ix.netcom.com (Ioannis Bousnakis)

Voice of America Directory

CONTENTS

  • [01] TUESDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

  • [02] !!! VOA DAILY BOSNIA REPORT -- OCTOBER 31, 1995

  • [03] BOSNIA PANELISTS ON OHIO TALKS BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

  • [04] BOSNIA PANELISTS ON OHIO TALKS BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

  • [05] BOSNIA TALKS BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (ZAGREB)

  • [06] BOSNIA PEACE TALKS IN OHIO BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

  • [07] CLINTON / BOSNIA O'NITE (S-O) BY DAVID BORGIDA (WHITE HOUSE)

  • [08] CONGRESS-BOSNIA TALKS BY PAULA WOLFSON (CONGRESS)

  • [09] CONGRESS-BOSNIA (S) BY PAULA WOLFSON (CONGRESS)

  • [10] CROATIA/ELECTIONS (S ONLY) BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS ( ZAGREB )

  • [11] NATO / LUBBERS (L) BY JOHN FRASER (BRUSSELS)

  • [12] TALBOTT / NATO (L ONLY) BY ART CHIMES (WASHINGTON)


  • [01] TUESDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=10/31/95
    TYPE=U-S EDITORIAL DIGEST
    NUMBER=6-09243
    TELEPHONE=619-3335
    EDITOR=PHIL HAYNES
    CONTENT=
    // EDITORS, PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS PERISHABLE MATERIAL AND BECOMES DATED AFTER 10 P-M E-D-S-T ON TUESDAY, OCTOBER 31ST //

    INTRO: ON THIS FINAL DAY OF OCTOBER, CHILDREN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES CELEBRATE HALLOWEEN BY DRESSING IN COSTUME AND GOING FROM DOOR TO DOOR ASKING FOR TREATS OF CANDY OR OTHER FACORS. THUS, HALLOWEEN IS AMONG THE MANY EDITORIAL TOPICS DEALT WITH IN TODAY'S U-S NEWSPAPERS. OTHER CONCERNS INCLUDE THE U-S BUDGET DEBATE; THE ON-GOING QUEST FOR DEMOCRACY IN BOTH RUSSIA AND SOUTH KOREA, AND THE BOSNIAN PEACE TALKS ABOUT TO GET UNDERWAY NEAR DAYTON, OHIO. NOW, WE GET A CLOSER LOOK FROM _____________ WITH TODAY'S U--S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

    TEXT: "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" DEVOTES ITS LEAD EDITORIAL TO THE FEDERAL BUDGET AND QUESTIONS PRESIDENT CLINTON'S REACTION TO THE BUDGET BILLS PASSED BY THE HOUSE AND SENATE, WHICH NOW MUST BE RECONCILED.

    VOICE: "SO PRESIDENT CLINTON NOW SAYS THAT NOT ONLY WILL HE VETO THE BUDGET JUST PASSED BY CONGRESS BUT HE WON'T EVEN TALK ABOUT IT UNTIL REPUBLICANS CHANGE THEIR PRIORITIES. SURE, AND HIS NEXT PLEDGE WILL BE TO READ HIS LIPS. AT LEAST SOME SKEPTICISM WOULD SEEM TO BE IN ORDER TOWARD THIS LATEST WHITE HOUSE BUDGET POSE. THIS IS THE SAME PRESIDENT, AFTER ALL, WHO IN JUNE ENDORSED A BALANCED BUDGET OVER TEN YEARS, AND THEN TWO WEEKS AGO, FOR THE FIRST TIME, SIGNED ONTO THE G-O-P'S TIMETABLE OF SEVEN YEARS... NOT TO LEAVE ANY GOP PRIORITY OUT, MR. CLINTON HAS ALSO PUBLICLY ENDORSED A TAX CUT, REPRISING HIS MIDDLE-CLASS TAX CUT CAMPAIGN PLEDGE, BUT THIS TIME ALSO INCLUDING A CUT IN THE CAPITAL GAINS RATE. ALL OF THIS BEGS THE QUESTION: WHAT EXACTLY IS THE PRESIDENT GOING TO VETO?"

    [OPT]

    TEXT: TODAY'S "WASHINGTON POST" OFFERS THESE THOUGHTS ABOUT SOME SPECIFIC PARTS OF THE PENDING BUDGET BILLS:

    VOICE: "THE ENORMOUS BUDGET-BALANCING BILLS THAT THE HOUSE AND SENATE PASSED LAST WEEK EACH CONTAIN SOME CORPORATE TAX INCREASES. TWO IN THE HOUSE VERSION OF THE BILL ARE BAD IDEAS AND OUGHT TO BE DROPPED IN THE CONFERENCE THAT NOW BEGINS. ONE WOULD MAKE IT EASIER FOR CORPORATIONS TO REMOVE SUPPOSEDLY EXCESS FUNDS FROM THEIR PENSION RESERVES AND USE THE MONEY FOR OTHER PURPOSES... THE OTHER WOULD PHASE OUT A LOW-INCOME HOUSING TAX CREDIT MEANT TO INDUCE CORPORATIONS TO INVEST IN SUCH HOUSING IN RETURN FOR SOMEWHAT LOWER TAXES. AGAIN, IT IS HARDLY THE CORPORATIONS THAT WOULD BE THE PRIMARY LOSERS WERE IT TO DISAPPEAR."

    [END OPT]

    TEXT: THE ISSUE OF DEMOCRACY AND ITS SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS IN POST-COMMUNIST RUSSIA ATTRACTS THE ATTENTION OF TODAY'S "NEW YORK TIMES", WHICH LAMENTS;

    VOICE: "WITH PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN SIDELINED BY SEVERE HEALTH PROBLEMS AND RUSSIA ENTERING ITS MOST IMPORTANT ELECTORAL SEASON SINCE THE BOLSHEVIK REVOLUTION, THE FUTURE OF RUSSIAN DEMOCRACY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE PERFORMANCE OF NEW INSTITUTIONS UNPRACTICED IN THE WAYS OF MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY. ON SUNDAY ONE SUCH INSTITUTION, THE CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION, THREATENED TO MAKE DECEMBER'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS MEANINGLESS BY KNOCKING THE COUNTRY'S LARGEST REFORM PARTY OFF THE BALLOT ON A PETTY TECHNICALITY. MUCH OF THE DAMAGE CAN STILL BE UNDONE IF ANOTHER FLEDGLING INSTITUTION, THE SUPREME COURT, OVERTURNS THE ELECTION COMMISSION'S DECISION. RIVAL PARTIES CONDEMNED THE RULING. THEY UNDERSTAND ... THAT AN ELECTION RIGGED AGAINST ONE OF THE MAIN CONTENDERS CAN HAVE NO WINNERS."

    TEXT: REVELATIONS OF THE EXTENT OF CORRUPTION IN SOUTH KOREA'S LAST MILITARY GOVERNMENT, HEADED BY GENERAL ROH TAE WOO, DRAWS THIS COMMENT FROM "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES."

    VOICE: "ONLY NOW ... IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GRAFT BECOMING CLEAR, WITH REVELATIONS THAT ROH TAE WOO .... CONTROLLED A 653-MILLION-DOLLAR SLUSH FUND, MORE THAN ONE-THIRD OF WHICH HE PERSONALLY POCKETED... PRESIDENT KIM [YOUNG SAM] HAS VOWED TO CLEAN UP GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION, BUT THE SCANDAL HAS INEVITABLY HARMED HIS CREDIBILITY AS WELL AS POPULAR CONFIDENCE IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS... [OPT] PRESIDENT KIM ... IS ABOVE ALL ELSE THE PROTECTOR OF SOUTH KOREA'S NASCENT DEMOCRACY. [END OPT] HIS MOST RESPONSIBLE COURSE IS TO ENHANCE FAITH IN THAT DEMOCRACY BY FULLY SUPPORTING AN UNHINDERED INVESTIGATION OF THE APPARENTLY STAGGERING LEVEL OF CORRUPTION THAT ACCOMPANIED SOUTH KOREA'S LONG ERA OF MILITARY RULE."

    TEXT: THE NATIONAL DAILY "USA TODAY" IS FOCUSING ON THE BOSNIAN PEACE TALKS GETTING UNDERWAY AT AN AIR FORCE BASE JUST OUTSIDE DAYTON, OHIO. THE PAPER NOTES THE NEGOTIATORS WILL HAVE MANY CHALLEGES TO OVERCOME:

    VOICE: "THE CROAT, MUSLIM, AND SERB LEADERS HAVE COME A LONG WAY -- BOTH GEOGRAPHICALLY AND POLITICALLY -- TO GET TO THIS SOUTHWESTERN OHIO CITY. BUT HUGE CHASMS MUST STILL BE NAVIGATED BEFORE THEIR MURDEROUS FEUD WILL END. [OPT] BEFORE ARRIVING IN OHIO, ALL THREE SIDES IN THE BALKAN WAR STIFFENED BARGAINING POSITIONS. THE ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT SEEMS TO BE THAT ODDS ON SUCCESS ARE LONG, OR WORSE. [END OPT] ... WITH MORE THAN 200-THOUSAND LIVES ALREADY LOST, YOU'D THINK ALL SIDES MIGHT FIND COMMON CAUSE IN ENDING THEM. PERHAPS AFTER WEEKS OR MONTHS OF ISOLATION ON A DAYTON AIR FORCE BASE, THEY WILL."

    TEXT: ON NEW YORK'S LONG ISLAND, "NEWSDAY," LOOKING TOWARD THE MIDDLE EAST, VIEWS AS ENCOURAGING A CALL FOR MODERATION FROM THE SPIRITUAL LEADER OF ANOTHER NORMALLY HOSTILE GROUP, HAMAS.

    VOICE: "[OPT] DESPITE A HARD BUMP ON THE ROAD TO PEACE IN THE MIDEAST WITH THE ASSASSINATION IN MALTA OF AN ISLAMIC RADICAL LEADER LAST WEEK, THERE ARE ENCOURAGING SIGNS THAT HARD-LINE PALESTINIANS AND ISRAEL ARE MOVING TOWARD COOPERATION. [END OPT] ONE OF THE MOST ENCOURAGING [SIGNS] .... CAME FROM AN UNLIKELY SOURCE LAST WEEK: SHEIK AHMED YASSIN, THE SPIRITUAL LEADER OF THE HARDLINE PALESTINIAN RESISTANCE MOVEMENT WHO IS SERVING A LIFE SENTENCE IN AN ISRAELI JAIL. [SHEIK] YASSIN, [OPT] WHO CARRIES ENORMOUS PRESTIGE WITHIN HIS GROUP, HAMAS, [END OPT] ASKED HIS FOLLOWERS ... TO STOP TERROR ATTACKS ON ISRAEL, PARTICIPATE IN SCHEDULED PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS AND 'GIVE PEACE A CHANCE.' A JAILHOUSE CONVERSION? NO, SOMETHING BETTER: A CLEAR-EYED PRAGMATIC ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT THE BALANCE OF PALESTINIAN SUPPORT IS SHIFTING TOWARD MODERATES WORKING FOR ... PEACE... AND THAT'S REAL PROGRESS."

    TEXT: AND FINALLY, BOTH "THE WASHINGTON TIMES" AND "LOS ANGELES TIMES" HAVE SOME THOUGHTS ON TODAY'S HALLOWEEN FESTIVAL. FIRST, THE WASHINGTON PAPER.

    VOICE: "[OPT] COME SUNDOWN -- OR BEFORE, FOR THE YOUNGER SET -- WITCHES, PIRATES AND FRANKENSTEIN MONSTERS WILL ROAM THE STREETS IN SEARCH OF SWEET PLUNDER. THOUGH CANDY COMPANIES CAN HARDLY BE ACCUSED OF INVENTING HALLOWEEN, IF IT HADN'T ALREADY EXISTED, THEY MIGHT WELL HAVE INVENTED IT. THE SHEER VOLUME OF CANDY PURCHASED AND COLLECTED -- AN ENERGETIC TRICK-OR-TREATER CAN WIND UP WITH MORE THAN NINE KILOS [KILOGRAMS] -- IS STAGGERING. [END OPT] ... THE TRUE MEANING OF HALLOWEEN RITUAL -- WHETHER THE DISGUISES, THE FIRES, THE JACK-O'-LANTERNS MEANT TO WARD OFF, TO APPEASE, OR TO WELCOME THE FRIGHTENING POWERS OF NATURE -- IS LOST SOMEWHERE IN OUR ANCIENT COLLECTIVE MEMORY... FOR MOST OF US, HALLOWEEN MEANS NO MORE NOR LESS THAN THE CHILDREN'S UNACCUSTOMED DELIGHT AT BEING OUT AND ABOUT WITH FRIENDS IN THE DARK -- AND, OF COURSE, THOSE NINE KILOS OF CANDY."

    TEXT: WHILE IN CALIFORNIA, WITH ITS LARGE INFLUENCE OF HISPANIC CULTURE, "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES" TAKES A LOOK AT HOW THAT CULTURE VIEWS THIS DAY, AND THIS WEEK.

    VOICE: "THIS WEEK MARKS THE INITIAL CELEBRATIONS OF DIA DE LOS MUERTOS, THE DAY OF THE DEAD, A SOLEMN YET FESTIVE OCCASION WHEN THE LATIN CULTURE REMEMBERS ITS DEAD WHILE CELEBRATING THE JOY OF LIVING. IN MEXICO, THE DIA DE MUERTOS RITUAL BEGINS WITH A CANDLELIGHT PROCESSION ... IN WHICH RELATIVES AND FRIENDS BRING FOOD, USUALLY TAMALES OR MOLE, AND DRINKS ... TO THE CEMETERY. THERE, AFTER A MEAL, THEY WILL DECK ALTARS WITH BUNDLES OF CEMPAZUCHITL, A YELLOW FLOWER THAT SYMBOLIZES DEATH... THE MEXICANS WHO SETTLED IN THE SOUTHWEST ... BROUGHT A RICH CULTURE WITH THEM. THE DAY OF THE DEAD, FORTUNATELY, REMAINS ALIVE AND WELL IN CALIFORNIA."

    TEXT: AND ON THAT MACABRE, YET HAPPY NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS FINAL EDITORIAL DIGEST FOR OCTOBER 1995.

    NEB/ANG/PCH
    31-Oct-95 11:15 AM EST (1615 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America
    .


    [02] !!! VOA DAILY BOSNIA REPORT -- OCTOBER 31, 1995

    DATE=10/31/95
    TYPE=ADVISORY
    CONTENT=

    VOA DAILY BOSNIA REPORT -- 10/31/95 THE FOLLOWING IS A SYNOPSIS OF SIGNIFICANT REPORTING ON BOSNIA BY THE VOICE OF AMERICA THAT HAD BEEN BROADCAST OR FIRMLY SCHEDULED AT THE TIME OF PUBLICATION. THIS SELECTION IS NOT INTENDED TO BE EXHAUSTIVE, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LATE-BREAKING NEWS OR THE MANY REPORTS IN ALL VOA LANGUAGES THAT ARE BASED ON COMMERCIAL WIRE SERVICES OR OTHER SECONDARY SOURCES. WE REGRET THAT WE CANNOT RESPOND TO REQUESTS FOR TRANSCRIPTS OF SPECIFIC BROADCASTS OR PROGRAM SEGMENTS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, CONTACT VOA, OFFICE OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS. TELEPHONE: +1-202-619-2538. ELECTRONIC MAIL: LETTERS@VOA.GOV (FOR CORRESPONDENCE FROM OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES); LETTERS-USA@VOA.GOV (FOR CORRESPONDENCE WITHIN THE UNITED STATES).

    REPORTS BY VOA NEWS SERVICES:

    CLINTON / BOSNIA -- PRESIDENT CLINTON CALLED ON THE WARRING PARTIES IN BOSNIA NOT TO WASTE THIS, AS HE CALLED IT, BEST CHANCE YET FOR PEACE. ON THE EVE OF THE DAYTON PEACE TALKS, PRESIDENT CLINTON SAID ONLY THE THREE PARTIES COULD END THE HORRIBLE WAR. AND THE NATO PEACE MISSION IN BOSNIA CAN SUCCEED ONLY WITH THE PARTICIPATION OF US TROOPS, SAID THE PRESIDENT. STAFFER IVANA KUHAR REPORTS. (CROATIAN 10/31)

    HOLBROOKE / BOSNIA -- CHIEF US NEGOTIATOR FOR THE BALKANS, ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE RICHARD HOLBROOKE SAYS BOSNIAN PROXIMITY PEACE TALKS IN DAYTON, OHIO WILL BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT THAN THE CAMP DAVID NEGOTIATIONS. SANCTIONS ON YUGOSLAVIA WOULD NOT BE LIFTED AT THE TIME OF SIGNING A PEACE ACCORD, BUT WHEN THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE ACCORD BEING IMPLEMENTED ON THE GROUND. STAFFER IVANA KUHAR REPORTS. (CROATIAN 10/30)

    OHIO PEACE TALKS / SERBIA -- NORMAN CIGAR, PROFESSOR AT THE USMC SCHOOL OF ADVANCED WAR FIGHTING, ANALYZED SERBIAN LEADERSHIP DECISION MAKING PROCESS REGARDING THEIR WILLINGNESS TO HALT FIGHTING AND START PEACE NEGOTIATIONS. SPEAKING AT THE ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SLAVIC STUDIES, NORMAN CIGAR SAID THAT SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC DOES NOT HAVE ANYTHING TO GAIN BY CONTINUING THE WAR IN BOSNIA. (CROATIAN 10/30)

    OHIO PEACE TALKS / SCENESETTER -- IN HIS REPORT FROM DAYTON, OHIO, STAFFER ZDENKO NOVACKI DESCRIBES THE US AIR FORCE BASE WRIGHT-PATTERSON, THE SITE OF THE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS FOR BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, AND THE LARGEST AIR FORCE FACILITY IN THE UNITED STATES. (CROATIAN 10/31)

    EUROPEAN UNION / BOSNIA PEACE PROCESS -- STRINGER LADA STIPIC NISETEO REPORTS FROM BRUSSELS THAT FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION DISCUSSED THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. THEY SAID THAT ONLY 20 PERCENT OF THE PROBLEMS ARE SOLVED AND THAT THE REST HAS TO BE SETTLED DURING PEACE TALKS IN OHIO. (CROATIAN 10/31)

    SERBIA / DAYTON -- WHILE ALL THE PARTICIPANTS AND SPONSORS OF PEACE TALKS ON BOSNIA EXPLAIN THEIR POSITIONS BEFORE THE COMING NEGOTIATIONS IN DAYTON, SERBIAN PRESIDENT S MILOSEVIC AVOIDED ANY PUBLIC COMMENT REGARDING FUTURE TALKS WITH THE PRESIDENT OF CROATIA F TUDJMAN AND PRESIDENT OF BOSNIA A IZETBEGOVIC. HOWEVER, POLITICAL PARTIES IN SERBIA HAVE EXPRESSED THEIR OPTIMISM REGARDING THE DAYTON PEACE TALKS ON BOSNIA. STRINGER MILICA KUBUROVIC REPORTS FROM BELGRADE. (SERBIAN 10/30)

    LUXEMBOURG / EU MINISTERS -- EU MINISTERS ARE MEETING IN LUXEMBOURG, IN ORDER TO ESTABLISH THE LIST OF RULES AND CONDITIONS FOR GRANTING FINANCIAL AID TO BOSNIA AND CROATIA. STRINGER LADA STIPIC NISETEO REPORTS. (CROATIAN 10/30)

    EU / BOSNIA -- EU FOREIGN MINISTERS ADOPTED POLITICAL GUIDELINES FOR THE AID TO THE COUNTRIES OF FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. THE MAIN CONDITION FOR SUCH AID IS THE RETURN OF ALL REFUGEES TO THEIR HOMES. EUROPEAN PEACE NEGOTIATOR K BILDT PREDICTED THAT ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO WOULD BE SUSPENDED AS SOON AS THE PEACE AGREEMENT ON BOSNIA IS SIGNED. STRINGER DRAGAN BLAGOJEVIC REPORTS FROM BRUSSELS. (SERBIAN 10/30)

    BOSNIA / ROADS -- SARAJEVO STRINGER VLADIMIR BILIC REPORTS THAT THE NEWLY REOPENED ROADS TO SARAJEVO AND TO GORAZDE ARE FOR THE TIME BEING FUNCTIONING WELL. HOWEVER HEAVILY ARMED UN TANKS ARE ESCORTING CIVILIAN TRAFFIC. THE CEASE-FIRE IS HOLDING, AND NO DELAYS AND HARASSMENTS OF THE CIVILIAN TRAFFIC WAS REPORTED. (CROATIAN 10/30)

    UN / BOSNIA -- UNPROFOR OFFICIALS IN SARAJEVO SAY FIVE TRUCKS WITH HUMANITARIAN AID LEFT SARAJEVO FOR GORAZDE, THE LATEST STEP IN EFFORTS TO PROVIDE FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT AROUND THE CAPITAL. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SPOKESMAN FOR UNCHR, CHRIS JANOWSKI DISCLOSED NEWS OF ABUSE OF NON-SERBIAN INHABITANTS OF BANJALUKA. STRINGER BORO KONTIC REPORTS FROM SARAJEVO. (SERBIAN 10/30)

    CROATIA / ELECTIONS -- THE RULING CROATIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION PARTY WON THE MAJORITY OF SEATS IN CROATIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, BUT NOT AS MANY AS WAS EXPECTED. IN ZAGREB, THE RULING PARTY SURPRISINGLY, DID NOT WIN THE MAJORITY IN CITY GOVERNMENT. STRINGER ZELJKO MATIC REPORTS. (CROATIAN 10/30)

    CROATIAN LEADERS / COMMENT ON ELECTIONS -- THE RULING PARTY WON THE MAJORITY OF SEATS IN CROATIAN PARLIAMENT, BUT THERE WERE MANY SURPRISES. STRINGER ZELJKO MATIC INTERVIEWS SEVERAL PARTY LEADERS, INCLUDING OPPOSITION AND RULING PARTIES, AND ASKED TO EXPRESS THEIR REACTIONS TO THE ELECTION RESULTS. (CROATIAN 10/30)

    CROATIA / ELECTIONS -- ACCORDING TO EARLY ELECTIONS RESULTS IN CROATIA, THE RULING PARTY OF PRESIDENT F TUDJMAN, THE CROATIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION (HDZ) GATHERED MORE THAT 50% OF SEATS IN THE NEW PARLIAMENT. THE BIGGEST TURNOUT FAVORING THE HDZ WAS IN SMALL CROATIAN CITIES, WHILE THE OPPOSITION PARTIES HAD MORE SUCCESS IN LARGER CITIES, INCLUDING ZAGREB AND RIJEKA. STRINGER STEVICA SUSA REPORTS FROM ZAGREB. (SERBIAN 10/30)

    LADJEVIC / CROATIA ELECTIONS -- PETAR LADJEVIC, SPOKESMAN FOR THE SERBIAN DEMOCRATIC FORUM, DISCUSSED THE EARLY RESULTS OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN CROATIA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH STRINGER RIALDA SEBEK IN LONDON. (SERBIAN 10/30)

    CROATIA / ELECTIONS -- THE PRESIDENT OF THE CROATIAN PARLIAMENT, NEDJELJKO MIHANOVIC, THE DEPUTY LEADER OF THE CROATIAN SOCIAL-LIBERAL PARTY JOZO RADOS, AND THE PRESIDENT OF THE INDEPENDENT SERBIAN PARTY, MILORAD PUPOVAC EXAMINE THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN CROATIA IN SEPARATE INTERVIEWS WITH ZAGREB STRINGER STEVICA SUSA. (SERBIAN 10/28)

    AAASS / RECONSTRUCTING CROATIA -- A PANEL OF EXPERTS AT THE ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR ADVANCEMENT OF SLAVIC STUDIES DISCUSSED MANY ISSUES REGARDING RECONSTRUCTION OF CROATIA. CROATIA IS ON A GOOD ECONOMIC TRAIL, THEY SAID, BUT IT WOULD STILL NEEDS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL AID. AT ANOTHER PANEL, EXPERTS DISCUSSED THE RECOVERY OF CROATIAN CULTURE, INCLUDING LIBRARIES, MONUMENTS, AND STOLEN OR DAMAGED ART WORK. STAFFER MIRJANA DEDAIC REPORTS. (CROATIAN 10/27) 31-Oct-95 5:43 PM EST (2243 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America
    .


    [03] BOSNIA PANELISTS ON OHIO TALKS BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=10/31/95
    TYPE=INTERNATIONAL FOCUS
    NUMBER=4-08692
    TELEPHONE=619-1101
    EDITOR=PHIL HAYNES
    CONTENT=// INSERTS AVAILABLE FROM AUDIO SERVICES //
    ANNCR: THE VOICE OF AMERICA PRESENTS "INTERNATIONAL FOCUS", A PROGRAM THAT EXAMINES ISSUES AND EVENTS OF GLOBAL CONCERN OR INTEREST. CART: FOCUS THEME (ESTABLISH AND LOSE UNDER) ANNCR: FORMAL PEACE TALKS TOWARD ENDING THE WAR IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA OPEN TODAY (NOV. 1ST) AT THE SECLUDED WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE OUTSIDE THE MIDWESTERN U-S CITY OF DAYTON, OHIO. THE PRESIDENTS OF SERBIA, CROATIA AND BOSNIA WILL BE THERE AS WELL AS A SIX-MEMBER BOSNIAN SERB DELEGATION HEADED BY SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC.

    AS THE HARD BARGAINING GETS UNDERWAY, SOME PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE TOWARD REMOVING AT LEAST ONE OBSTACLE STANDING IN THE WAY OF SUCCESSFUL NEGOTIATIONS. THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA HAVE AGREED TO COOPERATE IN NON-MILITARY OPERATIONS IN BOSNIA AFTER THE CONFLICT ENDS AND NATO HAS ALREADY DEPLOYED PEACEKEEPERS THERE. QUESTIONS REMAIN, HOWEVER, ON WHETHER RUSSIA WILL PARTICIPATE IN THE THE PEACEKEEPING OPERATION ITSELF, WHICH IS UNDER NATO COMMAND.

    ONE OBSTACLE WHICH MAY YET UNDERMINE THE PEACE TALKS IS A THREAT BY BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS TO PULL OUT IF THEY ARE NOT GRANTED THE RIGHT TO SECEDE FROM BOSNIA SOMETIME IN THE FUTURE. THIS SEPARATIST DEMAND IS AT THE VERY HEART OF WHAT STARTED THE WAR. HOW IT IS FINALLY RESOLVED COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE FUTURE OF FRAGILE MULTI-ETHNIC COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD. IN THIS

    REPORT, VOA'S PAMELA TAYLOR LOOKS AT THE ISSUE OF

    SEPARATION VERSUS PLURALISM -- AND WHETHER THE BOSNIA PEACE PLAN UNDER DISCUSSION IN OHIO IS REALLY PARTITION OR NOT. SHE SAYS THESE TOPICS WERE AT THE HEART OF DISCUSSIONS AT THE ANNUAL CONVENTION OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SLAVIC STUDIES (AAASS) IN WASHINGTON, WHICH ENDED SUNDAY (10/29).

    TEXT: THE ANNUAL AMERICAN SLAVIC CONVENTIONS HAVE, UNTIL RECENT YEARS, TENDED TO BE DOMINATED BY KREMLINOLOGISTS AND RUSSIAN AREA SCHOLARS. BUT FOLLOWING THE BREAKUP OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, DISCUSSIONS ABOUT VARIOUS ASPECTS OF THE WAR IN BOSNIA HAVE DRAWN THE LARGEST CROWDS. PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE HISTORIC LINKS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND SERBIA, THE MAJORITY OF SPEAKERS HAVE BEEN SPECIALISTS IN SERBIAN STUDIES. BUT THIS YEAR CONVENTION ORGANIZERS MADE A CREDIBLE EFFORT TO INCLUDE SEVERAL EXPERTS ON CROATIAN ISSUES. BOSNIAN SCHOLARS, HOWEVER, WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, THEIR POINT OF VIEW BEING REPRESENTED PRIMARILY BY A FEW U-S EXPERTS.

    AMONG THEM WAS THE MOST RECENT U-S AMBASSADOR TO BELGRADE, WARREN ZIMMERMAN, NOW WITH THE JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (SAIS) IN WASHINGTON. HIS PAPER WAS ABOUT THE HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT IN BOSNIA, INCLUDING THE ROLE OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION AT THE TIME MR. ZIMMERMAN WAS THE AMBASSADOR THERE. THE SERBS HAVE ACCUSED MR. ZIMMERMAN OF PERSUADING BOSNIAN PRESIDENT (ALIJA) IZETBEGOVIC TO RENEGE ON ACCEPTING AN EARLY PLAN FOR PARTITIONING THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA INTO THREE ETHNIC CANTONS -- A PLAN THEY SAID IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE CURRENTLY ON THE TABLE. MR. ZIMMERMAN REJECTED THIS NOTION, AND CRITICIZED THE LACK OF INVOLVEMENT BY THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION GOING INTO AN ELECTION YEAR. HE ALSO HAD HARSH WORDS FOR PRESIDENT CLINTON, WHO HE SAID WAS INITIALLY SYMPATHETIC TO THE PLIGHT OF THE MUSLIM-LED GOVERNMENT ONLY TO REPORTEDLY BACK OFF AFTER READING ONE OF THE FIRST BOOKS PUBLISHED ABOUT THE CRISIS:

    TAPE: CUT # 1 ZIMMERMAN RUNS [:50] "ACCORDING TO ELIZABETH DREW'S BOOK ON THE FIRST YEAR OF THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION, WHILE CHRISTOPHER WAS IN EUROPE, CLINTON READ 'BALKAN GHOSTS' BY ROBERT KAPLAN AND DECIDED THAT THIS WAS A PART OF THE WORLD WHERE PEOPLE HAD BEEN FIGHTING FOR CENTURIES AND THERE WAS NO POSSIBILITY THERE WAS GOING TO BE ANYTHING OTHER THAN GRIEF FOR ANY WESTERN POWER THAT GOT INTO IT. AND THE RHETORIC CHANGED IN THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION. THE RHETORIC CHANGED FROM THIS VERY MUSCULAR APPROACH, SAYING WE HAD TO DO SOMETHING BECAUSE BOSNIA WAS VERY MUCH A PART OF AMERICAN INTERESTS, TO TALKING ABOUT THIS AS A EUROPEAN ISSUE TO SAYING THAT THIS AN AREA OF TRADITIONAL ETHNIC HOSTILITY."

    TEXT: THIS ATTITUDE, MR. ZIMMERMAN SAID, WAS REINFORCED BY THEN-JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF COLIN POWELL, WHO WAS RELUCTANT TO HAVE THE U-S MILITARY BECOME INVOLVED IN THE BALKANS. BUT FELLOW PANELIST CARL JACOBSEN, A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT CARLETON UNIVERSITY IN OTTAWA, CANADA, DISAGREED THAT THE UNITED STATES WAS PASSIVE ON BOSNIA IN THOSE EARLY YEARS. IN FACT, HE SAID THE UNITED STATES AND GERMANY BORE PRIME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE WAR IN BOSNIA BY TOO HASTILY RECOGNIZING THE INDEPENDENCE OF SLOVENIA, CROATIA AND BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA. HE SAID THIS LED TO A MEDIA CAMPAIGN TO MAKE BOSNIA'S MUSLIMS THE WORLD'S NEW 'CAUSE-CELEBRE':

    TAPE: CUT # 2 JACOBSON RUNS [:27] "THERE HAS BEEN AN EXTRAORDINARY MEDIA BIAS, A SETTING OF MORAL PARAMETERS, THE WHITE HOUSE LINE WAS ECHOED IN THE PARTISAN ANTI-SERB PATHOLOGISTS (SIC), I USE THE TERM ADVISEDLY (ABOUT) THE NEW YORK TIMES AND MADELEINE ALLBRIGHT. THE NEW YORK TIMES NEVER SAW A SERB ATROCITY IT DIDN'T LIKE WHILE CROAT AND MUSLIM ATROCITIES ARE NOT FIT TO PRINT."

    TEXT: MR. ZIMMERMAN RETORTED THAT WHATEVER ROLE WASHINGTON AND BONN PLAYED, THE WAR WAS STARTED BY THE PARTIES THEMSELVES AND NOT BY EXTERNAL FORCES. AND, HE HAD THIS TO SAY ABOUT SERB ATROCITIES:

    TAPE: CUT # 3 ZIMMERMAN RUNS [:23] "I'M PRETTY SURE THAT EVEN A PERFECT INVESTIGATING (WAR CRIMES) TRIBUNAL WOULD FIND THAT WHILE ALL SIDES HAD COMMITTED ATROCITIES, THE SERBIAN SIDE HAD COMMITTED ATROCITIES IN A VOLUME MANY TIMES THAT OF THE OTHER TWO SIDES COMBINED. I DON'T THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE VERY MUCH DISPUTE ABOUT THAT."

    TEXT: IN FACT, AS THE CONVENTION WAS TAKING PLACE, THE LEADING U-S NEWSPAPERS (INCLUDING THE NEW YORK TIMES) WERE FULL OF NEW REPORTS ABOUT THE EXTENT OF LARGE-SCALE SERB ATROCITIES FOLLOWING THE CAPTURE OF THE BOSNIAN ENCLAVE OF SREBRENICA IN JULY. THE REPORTD INDICATE THEY ARE THE THE WORST SUCH CRIMES SINCE WORLD WAR TWO. WHILE THERE WAS MUCH DISCUSSION ABOUT THESE LATEST REVELATIONS OUTSIDE THE MEETING ROOMS, INSIDE, SPEAKERS MAINLY STUCK TO THEIR PREPARED TEXTS. IF ANY SUBJECT WAS NOTABLE BY ITS ABSENCE IN THE DEBATES ON BOSNIA, IT WAS THE SUBJECT OF ATROCITIES AND WAR CRIMES. MOST SPEAKERS FOCUSED THEIR ATTENTION ON TRYING TO ANALYZE THE LATEST PEACE PLAN. IN HIS CRITIQUE OF INTERNATIONAL CONSTITUTION-MAKING, ROBERT HAYDEN OF THE UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURG, PRESENTED A THOROUGH BREAKDOWN OF THE CONTRADICTIONS IN THE CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE BEING PRESENTED IN OHIO:

    TAPE: CUT # 4 HAYDEN RUNS [:50] "ALTHOUGH THE UNITED STATES AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL SAYS THESE DOCUMENTS, THESE AGREED PRINCIPLES DO NOT PARTITION BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA, IN FACT IF IT MAKES ANY SENSE AT ALL, THEY ARE INDEED THE PARTITION OF BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA. NOW HOW CAN THAT BE SINCE CLAUSE NUMBER ONE SAYS BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA WILL CONTINUE ITS LEGAL EXISTENCE WITH ITS PRESENT BORDERS AND CONTINUING INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION? CLAUSE TWO PROVIDES FOR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA TO CONSIST OF TWO ENTITIES, THE FEDERATION AS ESTABLISHED BY THE WASHINGTON AGREEMENT -- THE CROAT-MUSLIM FEDERATION -- AND THE REPUBLIKA SRPSKA AND THAT EACH OF THESE ENTITIES WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST UNDER ITS PRESENT CONSTITUTION."

    TEXT: ACCORDING TO PROFESSOR HAYDEN, THE PLAN BEING NEGOTIATED IN OHIO PROPOSES A SINGLE PARLIAMENT, WITH TWO-THIRDS OF THE MEMBERS ELECTED FROM THE BOSNIAN-CROAT FEDERATION, ONE THIRD FROM REPUBLIKA SRPSKA [SERB-SKA]. HOWEVER, HE SAID, ALL DECISIONS MUST BE MADE BY A 'QUALIFIED' MAJORITY WHICH MUST INCLUDE AT LEAST ONE-THIRD OF THE VOTES FROM EACH ENTITY. SUCH ETHNIC BLOC VOTING, HE SAID, WILL EFFECTIVELY GUARANTEE THE PARLIAMENT WILL DO NOTHING WHATSOEVER:

    TAPE: CUT # 5 HAYDEN RUNS [:55] "SIMILAR RULES INSURE THAT THE SUPPOSED PRESIDENCY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE HAMSTRUNG. THE 'PRESIDENCIES' WILL HAVE TO BE DRIVEN AROUND IN A BUS. A PRESIDENCY TWO THIRDS ELECTED FROM THE FEDERATION, ONE THIRD FROM REPUBLIKA SRPSKA, ALL DECISIONS TAKEN BY MAJORITY VOTE. HOWEVER IF ONE THIRD OR MORE OF THE MEMBERS DISAGREE AND DECLARE THAT DECISION TO BE DESTRUCTIVE OF A VITAL INTEREST OF ONE OF THE ENTITIES, THE MATTER WILL BE REFERRED TO THE ENTITY'S PARLIAMENT. IF THAT PARLIAMENT DETERMINES THE MATTER BY A TWO-THIRDS VOTE THEN THE CHALLENGE WILL NOT TAKE PLACE. THIS IS A STRUCTURE THAT SEEMS DESIGNED TO INSURE THAT ISSUES ARE POLARIZED ON ETHNIC OR NATIONAL GROUNDS AND PROVIDING BLOCKING ANY DECISION. THIS IS A GUARANTEED RECIPE FOR PARALYSIS."

    TEXT: MOST ALARMING, PROFESSOR HAYDEN AND OTHERS AGREED, IS THE OHIO PLAN FOR THE MILITARY. PROFESSOR HAYDEN EXPLAINED:

    TAPE: CUT # 6 HAYDEN RUNS [:52] "WHAT'S MOST INTERESTING IS IT CALLS FOR THE COORDINATION OF DEFENSE POLICIES AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF JOINT COMMAND STAFFS. THE AGREED PRINCIPLES PERMIT THE REPUBLIKA SRPSKA TO CREATE THE SAME RELATIONSHIP WITH NEIGHBORING STATES, IN OTHER WORDS WITH SERBIA SO THE WAY IS NOW CLEAR FOR THE REPUBLIKA SRPSKA AND SERBIA, THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF SERBIA TO COORDINATE DEFENSE POLICIES AND DEVELOP A JOINT COMMAND STRUCTURE. NOW THIS IS VERY CURIOUS. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA BECOMES A CURIOUS STATE INDEED, COMPOSED OF TWO PARTS EACH OF WHICH IS LINKED MORE CLOSELY TO NEIGHBORING STATES THAN TO EACH OTHER, WITH NO WORKABLE MECHANISM FOR JOINT OR SHARED GOVERNANCE AND EACH JOINED IN A DEFENSE STRUCTURE WITH NEIGHBORING STATES BUT NOT WITH EACH OTHER. I CALL THIS SECTION OF THE PAPER 'ZEN AND THE ART OF CONSTITUTIONAL HEGEMONY'."

    TEXT: IN CONCLUSION, PROFESSOR HAYDEN INSISTED THAT THE NEW PROPOSED PLAN LEGITIMATES THE EVENTUAL CREATION OF A GREATER SERBIA. NOT TODAY, BUT ONE DAY WHEN, HE SAID, REPUBLIKA SRPSKA IS INCORPORATED INTO THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO).

    A LEADING U-S MILITARY ANALYST, NORMAN CIGAR [SEE-GAR] OF THE U-S MARINE CORPS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED WARFIGHTING, OFFERED SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT HE SAW AS THE MILITARY REASONS BEHIND SERBIAN PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC'S DECISION TO JOIN THE EFFORT TO END THE WAR IN BOSNIA. MR. CIGAR CALLED IT A COST-BENEFIT DECISION, WITH THE COST OF WAR FINALLY OUTWEIGHING THE BENEFITS TO BELGRADE:

    TAPE: CUT # 7 CIGAR RUNS [:40] "CONTRARY TO CONVENTIONAL WISDOM I THINK COMMITMENT ON THE SERBIAN SIDE TO THE POLITICAL GOAL AS STATED, WAS FAIRLY LIMITED. RESERVISTS BY AND LARGE IN 1991 TRIED TO AVOID BEING CALLED UP AND THOSE THAT DID OFTEN DESERTED. WE HAD VERY LARGE SCALE DESERTIONS. WHAT THAT DOES, IT AFFECTS THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS. THE POLITICAL SITUATION STARTS DETERIORATING AT HOME. POLITICAL WILL STARTS ERODING. NOT ONLY PEOPLE AT THE FRONT BUT BACK AT HOME. YOU HAVE PARENTS DEMONSTRATING. I THINK HE (MILOSEVIC) SAW THE WRITING ON THE WALL THAT POLITICAL SUPPORT IS ERODING VERY RAPIDLY AND THAT THE FUTURE CAN ONLY DETERIORATE."

    TEXT: WHEN THE BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS REALIZED THEY COULD NO LONGER COUNT ON ASSISTANCE FROM PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC AND THE YUGOSLAV ARMY, PROFESSOR CIGAR SAID THE COST-BENEFIT RATIO BEGAN TO CHANGE FOR THEM AS WELL. FOLLOWING TERRITORIAL GAINS BY THE JOINT CROAT-MUSLIM FORCES, PROFESSOR CIGAR SAID, PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC WAS FACED WITH A DILEMMA:

    TAPE: CUT # 8 CIGAR RUNS [1:08] "HE EITHER HAS TO ESCALATE OR HE HAS TO END THE WAR. ITS DIFFICULT TO ESCALATE. FIRST OF ALL, HE ECONOMY IS VERY FRAGILE, HYPER-INFLATION COULD REAPPEAR QUICKLY. I THINK THAT'S WHERE THE MILITARY AND POLITICAL NEXIS COME TOGETHER. THIS COST-BEEFIT CALCULATION, HOW CAN YOU ACHIEVE YOUR GOALS BUT NOT PAY A COST THAT'S PROHIBITIVE. I THINK ITS ALSO AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MILOSEVIC. IT'S AN OPPORTUNITY TO CONTROL THE NATIONALIST MOVEMENT. [OPT] THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF FRICTION WITH THE PEOPLE IN BOSNIA, WITH (BOSNIAN SERB LEADER RADOVAN) KARADZIC. THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR HIM TO ESTABLISH HIS DIRECT CONTROL ON BOTH SIDES OF THE (DRINA) RIVER, BETWEEN THE RIGHT-WING AND THE LEFT-WING. IT GIVES HIM LEVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME. THE BOSNIAN SERBS THEMSELVES ARE IN A POSITION WHERE THEY HAVE TOTOTALLY DEPEND ON MILOSEVIC FOR SUPPORT AND THEY HAVE TO YIELD TO HIM. HE EVEN IN FACT TAKES OVER NEGOTIATING FOR THEM. [END OPT]"

    TEXT: ANOTHER MILITARY EXPERT AT THE CONVENTION, MILAN VEGO [MEE-LAHN VAY-GO], PROFESSOR OF OPERATIONS AT THE U-S NAVAL WAR COLLEGE AT NEWPORT, RHODE ISLAND, AGREED WITH PROFESSOR CIGAR'S ANALYSIS. PROFESSOR VEGO, A CROAT-AMERICAN AND A FORMER OFFICER IN THE YUGOSLAV NATIONAL ARMY, OR J-N-A, SAID LOSS OF ARMY MORALE WAS A MAJOR FACTOR IN BRINGING PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC TO THE PEACE TABLE, ADDING THAT THE MIGHT OF THE J-N-A HAS BEEN VASTLY OVER-RATED BY THE WEST. [OPT] SEVERAL ANALYSTS SPOKE ABOUT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF U-N ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON SERBIA AND ON PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC'S DESIRE FOR PEACE. BUT WARREN ZIMMERMAN DIDN'T THINK SANCTIONS WERE DECISIVE:

    TAPE: [OPT] CUT # 9 ZIMMERMAN RUNS [:30] "THEY CERTAINLY DIDN'T DRIVE MILOSEVIC FROM POWER WHICH SOME OF US HOPED WOULD HAPPEN. THEY MAY HAVE INDEED HELPED TO CONSOLIDATE HIS POWER BECAUSE HE WAS VERY CLEVER AT USING THE SANCTIONS IN THAT DIRECTION. THEY MAY HAVE DRIVEN HIM TO SEEK A NEGOTIATED AGREEMENT ON BOSNIA. THAT IS AT LEAST WHAT HE CLAIMS NOW AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE DRIVING HIM TOWARD A MORE MODERATE POSITION THAN HE HAD BEFORE. BUT AGAIN, THAT'S OPEN TO QUESTION."

    TEXT: [OPT] WHILE THE U-N SANCTIONS DID NOT CAUSE THE DOWNFALL OF PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC, A PANEL OF ANALYSTS AGREED THEY HAD CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA -- THAT IS, SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO. SEVERAL ANALYSTS NOTED THAT THE REPUBLIC'S RATE OF INFLATION HAS BEEN MUCH HIGHER THAN IN PRE-WORLD WAR TWO GERMANY AND FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. OTHERS SAID THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN ABLE TO LURCH ALONG MAINLY THANKS TO BLACK MARKET TRADING AND WIDESPREAD SANCTIONS BUSTING. BUT MOST AGREED THAT SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO'S CONTINUING ISOLATION, MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT AND BLEAK OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE ALL CONTRIBUTED TO BRINGING PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC TO THE OHIO PEACE TALKS. [END OPT]

    BUT THE LARGER QUESTION REMAINS -- WHAT WILL A FUTURE BOSNIAN STATE LOOK LIKE? ROBERT HAYDEN AND OTHERS THINK IT WILL BE PARTITION BY ANOTHER NAME:

    TAPE: CUT # 10 HAYDEN RUNS [:50] "THE CURRENT CONSTITUTIONAL STUFF PROVIDES A FICTION, A FACADE, FOR PRETENDING THAT THE PRINCIPLE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, THAT THERE IS A BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA WHILE STILL PROVIDING THAT IN REALITY IT WILL NOT EXIST. IF THESE CONSTITUTIONAL PRINCIPLES ARE IMPLEMENTED, WHAT YOU WILL HAVE IS A SITUATION THAT ON EVERY WORLD MAP THERE WILL BE A BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA AND IN THE U-N THERE WILL BE A SEAT WITH A PLATE IN FRONT WHICH SAYS REPUBLIC OF BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA. HOWEVER, WHEN YOU GET THERE ON THE GROUND, YOU WILL DISCOVER THAT A REPUBLIC OF BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA DOESN'T EXIST IN THE CROATIAN CONTROLLED AREAS, DOES NOT EXIST IN THE SERBIAN CONTROLLED AREAS AND EVERYONE CAN PRETEND THAT THIS IS NOT SO BUT IT WILL BE SO."

    TEXT: WARREN ZIMMERMAN EXPRESSED FULL AGREEMENT WITH PROFESSOR HAYDEN'S ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK AND SAID IT SHOULD BE REQUIRED READING BY THE STATE DEPARTMENT AND ALL THE PARTICIPANTS IN THE OHIO TALKS. BUT MR. ZIMMERMAN, WHO HAS BEEN ACCUSED OF REPRESENTING THE 'IDEALISTIC' AMERICAN VIEW, AS OPPOSED TO THE 'REAL POLITIK' EUROPEAN POINT OF VIEW, HAD THIS TO SAY ON THE MATTER OF PARTITION VERSUS PRESERVING A MULTI-ETHNIC STATE:

    TAPE: CUT # 11 ZIMMERMAN RUNS [:39] "THE WORLD IS NOT A WORLD OF (ETHNIC) NATION-STATES. IF YOU LOOK AT IT, THERE ARE VERY FEW STATES IN THE WORLD THAT ARE NATION-STATES. MAYBE JAPAN IS ONE. MAYBE CHINA IS ONE, ALTHOUGH YOU GET SOME DISPUTE THERE; ICELAND PERHAPS. BUT IF YOU TRY TO NAME STATES THAT ARE PURE NATION-STATES, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO FIND VERY MANY. MOST STATES ARE IN FACT MULTI-NATIONAL, MULTI-ETHNIC. MOST STATES HAVE MAJORITY PEOPLE AND MINORITY PEOPLE. AND MOST STATES HAVE FOUND A 'MODUS VIVENDI' FOR WORKING THINGS OUT AMONG THE DIFFERENT ETHNIC GROUPS THAT LIVE IN THEM."

    TEXT: AFTER BEING CHALLENGED FOR HOLDING WHAT SOME PARTICIPATS CONSIDERED AN "UNREALISTIC, IDEALISTIC VIEW", AMBASSADOR ZIMMERMAN HAD ONE LAST REJOINDER:

    TAPE: CUT # 12 ZIMMERMAN RUNS [:49] "YOU ARE NEVER GOING TO MAKE THE BALKANS A REGION WHERE INDIVIDUAL PEOPLES LIVE SEPARATELY IN INDIVIDUAL REPUBLICS. IN THE OLD YUGOSLAVIA, SERBS LIVED IN 5 REPUBLICS. SHOULD THEY BECOME A PART OF SERBIA TODAY? IN WESTERN EUROPE TODAY, A MILLION GERMANS LIVE IN FRANCE, DOES THAT MEAN THAT ALSASCE LORAINNE SHOULD GO BACK TO GERMANY? HUNGARIANS ARE SPREAD AMONG FOUR COUNTRIES, DOES THAT MEAN THAT HUNGARY SHOULD INCORPORATE THE HUNGARIAN AREAS OF THOSE COUNTRIES? I THINK THE HUNGARIANS HAVE HANDLED IT REMARKABLY WELL BY MAKING AGREEMENTS WITH THOSE COUNTRIES, WHERE HUNGARIANS LIVE, TO DEAL FAIRLY WITH THE HUNGARIAN MINORITY."

    TEXT: ONE OF THE FEW BOSNIAN SCHOLARS AT THE CONVENTION, ZORAN PAJIC [PIE-ITCH], A FORMER PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL LAW AT SARAJEVO UNIVERSITY, IS LIVING TESTIMONY TO BOSNIAN MULTI-CULTURALISM. NOW A LECTURER AT KINGS COLLEGE OF LAW IN LONDON, PROFESSOR PAJIC WAS BORN IN MOSTAR, THE CROATIAN PART OF BOSNIA, AND RAISED AS A CHILD IN SERBIAN BANJA LUKA. HE SPENT HIS ADULT LIFE IN SARAJEVO AND SAYS HIS ETHNIC MAKEUP IS SO MIXED HE CANNOT TODAY QUALIFY AS A MEMBER OF ANY ONE GROUP. PROFESSOR PAJIC FLED TO BRITAIN IN THE SUMMER OF 1992 AFTER MONTHS OF NON-STOP SHELLING OF SARAJEVO BY SERB FORCES. HE RECALLED A MEMORY OF SARAJEVO -- WHICH HE FEARS HE WILL NEVER SEE AGAIN -- AN EASTER LUNCH IN APRIL 1992 WITH RELIGIOUS LEADERS REPRESENTING THE REPUBLIC'S FOUR MAIN FAITHS: CATHOLOCISM, EASTERN ORTHODOXY, JUDIASM & ISLAM:

    TAPE: CUT # 13 PAJIC RUNS [:50] "TODAY, MORE THAN THREE YEARS AFTER THAT SOLOMN EVENT, I REALIZE THAT WE WERE, THE PEOPLE AT THAT LUNCH, WERE THE REPRESENTATIVES OF EVERYTHING OF THE WAR TO COME. WE WERE THE REPRESENTATIVES OF PEACE, TOLERANCE, THE COSMOPOLITAN TRADITION OF BOSNIA AND ITS MULTI-RELIGIOUS AND CULTURAL FABRIC. IN THE WAR IN YUGOSLAVIA IN GENERAL AND IN BOSNIA IN PARTICULAR, THE IDEA OF PLURALISM HAS BEEN BETRAYED, HAS BEEN ABANDONED AND IN FACT BY ABANDONING THE IDEA OF PLURALISM I THINK A KIND OF NORMALITY OF THE WAY THAT HUMAN BEINGS LIVE HAS ALSO BEEN ABANDONED."

    TEXT: PROFESSOR PAJIC SAID HE FEARED THAT THE FINAL OUTCOME OF THE OHIO PEACE TALKS MIGHT WELL BE, AS PROFESSOR HAYDEN BELIEVES, A DE FACTO PARTITION OF HIS COUNTRY:

    TAPE: CUT # 14 PAJIC RUNS [1:07] "IT'S MAYBE EARLY TO SAY BUT THE AMERICAN PEACE PLAN HAS FALLEN INTO THE SAME TRAP. IT'S FOLLOWING A STEREOTYPE ACCORDING TO WHICH ALL SERBS, MUSLIMS OR CROATS BLINDLY FOLLOW THEIR RESPECTIVE LEADERS IN THE REGION. THE AMERICAN PEACE PLAN, AMONG OTHER THINGS, WILL LEGITIMIZE ETHNIC CLEANSING AND DEFINITELY WILL OPEN THE NEW APPETITE FOR FURTHER ETHNIC CLEANSING AND FURTHER WAGING OF WARS. [OPT] IT WILL DEFINITELY MEAN THAT INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS ARE ABANDONED IN THE REGION BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO REALIZE THAT NOT ONLY IN BOSNIA OR THIS STRUCTURE THAT IS BEING PUT FORWARD BUT IN ALMOST ALL PARTS OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, YOU HAVE TO REALIZE THAT IF YOU DO NOT BELONG TO A GROUP, YOU DO NOT EXIST AS AN INDIVIDUAL IN TERMS OF HUMAN RIGHTS, CIVIL RIGHTS, POLITICAL RIGHTS. [END OPT]"

    TEXT: PROFESSOR PAJIC CRITICIZED THE WEST FOR FAILING TO SUPPORT DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION GROUPS IN SERBIA AND BOSNIA AND FOR SPEAKING ONLY TO NATIONALIST LEADERS. HE ALSO SAID HE BELIEVES THE UNITED STATES AND THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY WILL ONE DAY REGRET NOT DEFENDING WESTERN IDEALS LIKE PLURALISM BECAUSE OF THEIR CONCERN WITH THE PRAGMATIC REALITIES OF MILITARY INVOLVEMENT. CART: THEME (ESTABLISH, FADE UNDER) ANNCR: YOU HAVE BEEN LISTENING TO INTERNATIONAL FOCUS ON THE VOICE OF AMERICA. TODAY'S PROGRAM LOOKED AT WHAT SCHOLARS AT A RECENT AMERICAN SLAVIC STUDIES CONVENTION IN WASHINGTON HAD TO SAY ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE AT THE CURRENT OHIO TALKS ON BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA. IT WAS WRITTEN AND NARRATED BY PAMELA TAYLOR, EDITED BY PHIL HAYNES, PRODUCED BY TOM SARGENT AND DIRECTED BY FELICIA BUTLER. TUNE IN AGAIN NEXT WEEK AT THIS SAME TIME INTERNATIONAL FOCUS AGAIN LOOKS AT AN ISSUE OR EVENT OF GLOBAL INTEREST. CART: THEME (UP AND FILL FOR TIME)

    NEB/PAM/PCH
    31-Oct-95 4:01 PM EST (2101 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America
    .


    [04] BOSNIA PANELISTS ON OHIO TALKS BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=10/31/95
    TYPE=INTERNATIONAL FOCUS
    NUMBER=4-08692
    TELEPHONE=619-1101
    EDITOR=PHIL HAYNES
    CONTENT=// INSERTS AVAILABLE FROM AUDIO SERVICES //
    ANNCR: THE VOICE OF AMERICA PRESENTS "INTERNATIONAL FOCUS", A PROGRAM THAT EXAMINES ISSUES AND EVENTS OF GLOBAL CONCERN OR INTEREST. CART: FOCUS THEME (ESTABLISH AND LOSE UNDER) ANNCR: FORMAL PEACE TALKS TOWARD ENDING THE WAR IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA OPEN TODAY (NOV. 1ST) AT THE SECLUDED WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE OUTSIDE THE MIDWESTERN U-S CITY OF DAYTON, OHIO. THE PRESIDENTS OF SERBIA, CROATIA AND BOSNIA WILL BE THERE AS WELL AS A SIX-MEMBER BOSNIAN SERB DELEGATION HEADED BY SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC.

    AS THE HARD BARGAINING GETS UNDERWAY, SOME PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE TOWARD REMOVING AT LEAST ONE OBSTACLE STANDING IN THE WAY OF SUCCESSFUL NEGOTIATIONS. THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA HAVE AGREED TO COOPERATE IN NON-MILITARY OPERATIONS IN BOSNIA AFTER THE CONFLICT ENDS AND NATO HAS ALREADY DEPLOYED PEACEKEEPERS THERE. QUESTIONS REMAIN, HOWEVER, ON WHETHER RUSSIA WILL PARTICIPATE IN THE THE PEACEKEEPING OPERATION ITSELF, WHICH IS UNDER NATO COMMAND.

    ONE OBSTACLE WHICH MAY YET UNDERMINE THE PEACE TALKS IS A THREAT BY BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS TO PULL OUT IF THEY ARE NOT GRANTED THE RIGHT TO SECEDE FROM BOSNIA SOMETIME IN THE FUTURE. THIS SEPARATIST DEMAND IS AT THE VERY HEART OF WHAT STARTED THE WAR. HOW IT IS FINALLY RESOLVED COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE FUTURE OF FRAGILE MULTI-ETHNIC COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD. IN THIS

    REPORT, VOA'S PAMELA TAYLOR LOOKS AT THE ISSUE OF

    SEPARATION VERSUS PLURALISM -- AND WHETHER THE BOSNIA PEACE PLAN UNDER DISCUSSION IN OHIO IS REALLY PARTITION OR NOT. SHE SAYS THESE TOPICS WERE AT THE HEART OF DISCUSSIONS AT THE ANNUAL CONVENTION OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SLAVIC STUDIES (AAASS) IN WASHINGTON, WHICH ENDED SUNDAY (10/29).

    TEXT: THE ANNUAL AMERICAN SLAVIC CONVENTIONS HAVE, UNTIL RECENT YEARS, TENDED TO BE DOMINATED BY KREMLINOLOGISTS AND RUSSIAN AREA SCHOLARS. BUT FOLLOWING THE BREAKUP OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, DISCUSSIONS ABOUT VARIOUS ASPECTS OF THE WAR IN BOSNIA HAVE DRAWN THE LARGEST CROWDS. PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE HISTORIC LINKS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND SERBIA, THE MAJORITY OF SPEAKERS HAVE BEEN SPECIALISTS IN SERBIAN STUDIES. BUT THIS YEAR CONVENTION ORGANIZERS MADE A CREDIBLE EFFORT TO INCLUDE SEVERAL EXPERTS ON CROATIAN ISSUES. BOSNIAN SCHOLARS, HOWEVER, WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, THEIR POINT OF VIEW BEING REPRESENTED PRIMARILY BY A FEW U-S EXPERTS.

    AMONG THEM WAS THE MOST RECENT U-S AMBASSADOR TO BELGRADE, WARREN ZIMMERMAN, NOW WITH THE JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (SAIS) IN WASHINGTON. HIS PAPER WAS ABOUT THE HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT IN BOSNIA, INCLUDING THE ROLE OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION AT THE TIME MR. ZIMMERMAN WAS THE AMBASSADOR THERE. THE SERBS HAVE ACCUSED MR. ZIMMERMAN OF PERSUADING BOSNIAN PRESIDENT (ALIJA) IZETBEGOVIC TO RENEGE ON ACCEPTING AN EARLY PLAN FOR PARTITIONING THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA INTO THREE ETHNIC CANTONS -- A PLAN THEY SAID IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE CURRENTLY ON THE TABLE. MR. ZIMMERMAN REJECTED THIS NOTION, AND CRITICIZED THE LACK OF INVOLVEMENT BY THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION GOING INTO AN ELECTION YEAR. HE ALSO HAD HARSH WORDS FOR PRESIDENT CLINTON, WHO HE SAID WAS INITIALLY SYMPATHETIC TO THE PLIGHT OF THE MUSLIM-LED GOVERNMENT ONLY TO REPORTEDLY BACK OFF AFTER READING ONE OF THE FIRST BOOKS PUBLISHED ABOUT THE CRISIS:

    TAPE: CUT # 1 ZIMMERMAN RUNS [:50] "ACCORDING TO ELIZABETH DREW'S BOOK ON THE FIRST YEAR OF THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION, WHILE CHRISTOPHER WAS IN EUROPE, CLINTON READ 'BALKAN GHOSTS' BY ROBERT KAPLAN AND DECIDED THAT THIS WAS A PART OF THE WORLD WHERE PEOPLE HAD BEEN FIGHTING FOR CENTURIES AND THERE WAS NO POSSIBILITY THERE WAS GOING TO BE ANYTHING OTHER THAN GRIEF FOR ANY WESTERN POWER THAT GOT INTO IT. AND THE RHETORIC CHANGED IN THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION. THE RHETORIC CHANGED FROM THIS VERY MUSCULAR APPROACH, SAYING WE HAD TO DO SOMETHING BECAUSE BOSNIA WAS VERY MUCH A PART OF AMERICAN INTERESTS, TO TALKING ABOUT THIS AS A EUROPEAN ISSUE TO SAYING THAT THIS AN AREA OF TRADITIONAL ETHNIC HOSTILITY."

    TEXT: THIS ATTITUDE, MR. ZIMMERMAN SAID, WAS REINFORCED BY THEN-JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF COLIN POWELL, WHO WAS RELUCTANT TO HAVE THE U-S MILITARY BECOME INVOLVED IN THE BALKANS. BUT FELLOW PANELIST CARL JACOBSEN, A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT CARLETON UNIVERSITY IN OTTAWA, CANADA, DISAGREED THAT THE UNITED STATES WAS PASSIVE ON BOSNIA IN THOSE EARLY YEARS. IN FACT, HE SAID THE UNITED STATES AND GERMANY BORE PRIME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE WAR IN BOSNIA BY TOO HASTILY RECOGNIZING THE INDEPENDENCE OF SLOVENIA, CROATIA AND BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA. HE SAID THIS LED TO A MEDIA CAMPAIGN TO MAKE BOSNIA'S MUSLIMS THE WORLD'S NEW 'CAUSE-CELEBRE':

    TAPE: CUT # 2 JACOBSON RUNS [:27] "THERE HAS BEEN AN EXTRAORDINARY MEDIA BIAS, A SETTING OF MORAL PARAMETERS, THE WHITE HOUSE LINE WAS ECHOED IN THE PARTISAN ANTI-SERB PATHOLOGISTS (SIC), I USE THE TERM ADVISEDLY (ABOUT) THE NEW YORK TIMES AND MADELEINE ALLBRIGHT. THE NEW YORK TIMES NEVER SAW A SERB ATROCITY IT DIDN'T LIKE WHILE CROAT AND MUSLIM ATROCITIES ARE NOT FIT TO PRINT."

    TEXT: MR. ZIMMERMAN RETORTED THAT WHATEVER ROLE WASHINGTON AND BONN PLAYED, THE WAR WAS STARTED BY THE PARTIES THEMSELVES AND NOT BY EXTERNAL FORCES. AND, HE HAD THIS TO SAY ABOUT SERB ATROCITIES:

    TAPE: CUT # 3 ZIMMERMAN RUNS [:23] "I'M PRETTY SURE THAT EVEN A PERFECT INVESTIGATING (WAR CRIMES) TRIBUNAL WOULD FIND THAT WHILE ALL SIDES HAD COMMITTED ATROCITIES, THE SERBIAN SIDE HAD COMMITTED ATROCITIES IN A VOLUME MANY TIMES THAT OF THE OTHER TWO SIDES COMBINED. I DON'T THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE VERY MUCH DISPUTE ABOUT THAT."

    TEXT: IN FACT, AS THE CONVENTION WAS TAKING PLACE, THE LEADING U-S NEWSPAPERS (INCLUDING THE NEW YORK TIMES) WERE FULL OF NEW REPORTS ABOUT THE EXTENT OF LARGE-SCALE SERB ATROCITIES FOLLOWING THE CAPTURE OF THE BOSNIAN ENCLAVE OF SREBRENICA IN JULY. THE REPORTD INDICATE THEY ARE THE THE WORST SUCH CRIMES SINCE WORLD WAR TWO. WHILE THERE WAS MUCH DISCUSSION ABOUT THESE LATEST REVELATIONS OUTSIDE THE MEETING ROOMS, INSIDE, SPEAKERS MAINLY STUCK TO THEIR PREPARED TEXTS. IF ANY SUBJECT WAS NOTABLE BY ITS ABSENCE IN THE DEBATES ON BOSNIA, IT WAS THE SUBJECT OF ATROCITIES AND WAR CRIMES. MOST SPEAKERS FOCUSED THEIR ATTENTION ON TRYING TO ANALYZE THE LATEST PEACE PLAN. IN HIS CRITIQUE OF INTERNATIONAL CONSTITUTION-MAKING, ROBERT HAYDEN OF THE UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURG, PRESENTED A THOROUGH BREAKDOWN OF THE CONTRADICTIONS IN THE CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE BEING PRESENTED IN OHIO:

    TAPE: CUT # 4 HAYDEN RUNS [:50] "ALTHOUGH THE UNITED STATES AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL SAYS THESE DOCUMENTS, THESE AGREED PRINCIPLES DO NOT PARTITION BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA, IN FACT IF IT MAKES ANY SENSE AT ALL, THEY ARE INDEED THE PARTITION OF BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA. NOW HOW CAN THAT BE SINCE CLAUSE NUMBER ONE SAYS BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA WILL CONTINUE ITS LEGAL EXISTENCE WITH ITS PRESENT BORDERS AND CONTINUING INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION? CLAUSE TWO PROVIDES FOR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA TO CONSIST OF TWO ENTITIES, THE FEDERATION AS ESTABLISHED BY THE WASHINGTON AGREEMENT -- THE CROAT-MUSLIM FEDERATION -- AND THE REPUBLIKA SRPSKA AND THAT EACH OF THESE ENTITIES WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST UNDER ITS PRESENT CONSTITUTION."

    TEXT: ACCORDING TO PROFESSOR HAYDEN, THE PLAN BEING NEGOTIATED IN OHIO PROPOSES A SINGLE PARLIAMENT, WITH TWO-THIRDS OF THE MEMBERS ELECTED FROM THE BOSNIAN-CROAT FEDERATION, ONE THIRD FROM REPUBLIKA SRPSKA [SERB-SKA]. HOWEVER, HE SAID, ALL DECISIONS MUST BE MADE BY A 'QUALIFIED' MAJORITY WHICH MUST INCLUDE AT LEAST ONE-THIRD OF THE VOTES FROM EACH ENTITY. SUCH ETHNIC BLOC VOTING, HE SAID, WILL EFFECTIVELY GUARANTEE THE PARLIAMENT WILL DO NOTHING WHATSOEVER:

    TAPE: CUT # 5 HAYDEN RUNS [:55] "SIMILAR RULES INSURE THAT THE SUPPOSED PRESIDENCY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE HAMSTRUNG. THE 'PRESIDENCIES' WILL HAVE TO BE DRIVEN AROUND IN A BUS. A PRESIDENCY TWO THIRDS ELECTED FROM THE FEDERATION, ONE THIRD FROM REPUBLIKA SRPSKA, ALL DECISIONS TAKEN BY MAJORITY VOTE. HOWEVER IF ONE THIRD OR MORE OF THE MEMBERS DISAGREE AND DECLARE THAT DECISION TO BE DESTRUCTIVE OF A VITAL INTEREST OF ONE OF THE ENTITIES, THE MATTER WILL BE REFERRED TO THE ENTITY'S PARLIAMENT. IF THAT PARLIAMENT DETERMINES THE MATTER BY A TWO-THIRDS VOTE THEN THE CHALLENGE WILL NOT TAKE PLACE. THIS IS A STRUCTURE THAT SEEMS DESIGNED TO INSURE THAT ISSUES ARE POLARIZED ON ETHNIC OR NATIONAL GROUNDS AND PROVIDING BLOCKING ANY DECISION. THIS IS A GUARANTEED RECIPE FOR PARALYSIS."

    TEXT: MOST ALARMING, PROFESSOR HAYDEN AND OTHERS AGREED, IS THE OHIO PLAN FOR THE MILITARY. PROFESSOR HAYDEN EXPLAINED:

    TAPE: CUT # 6 HAYDEN RUNS [:52] "WHAT'S MOST INTERESTING IS IT CALLS FOR THE COORDINATION OF DEFENSE POLICIES AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF JOINT COMMAND STAFFS. THE AGREED PRINCIPLES PERMIT THE REPUBLIKA SRPSKA TO CREATE THE SAME RELATIONSHIP WITH NEIGHBORING STATES, IN OTHER WORDS WITH SERBIA SO THE WAY IS NOW CLEAR FOR THE REPUBLIKA SRPSKA AND SERBIA, THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF SERBIA TO COORDINATE DEFENSE POLICIES AND DEVELOP A JOINT COMMAND STRUCTURE. NOW THIS IS VERY CURIOUS. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA BECOMES A CURIOUS STATE INDEED, COMPOSED OF TWO PARTS EACH OF WHICH IS LINKED MORE CLOSELY TO NEIGHBORING STATES THAN TO EACH OTHER, WITH NO WORKABLE MECHANISM FOR JOINT OR SHARED GOVERNANCE AND EACH JOINED IN A DEFENSE STRUCTURE WITH NEIGHBORING STATES BUT NOT WITH EACH OTHER. I CALL THIS SECTION OF THE PAPER 'ZEN AND THE ART OF CONSTITUTIONAL HEGEMONY'."

    TEXT: IN CONCLUSION, PROFESSOR HAYDEN INSISTED THAT THE NEW PROPOSED PLAN LEGITIMATES THE EVENTUAL CREATION OF A GREATER SERBIA. NOT TODAY, BUT ONE DAY WHEN, HE SAID, REPUBLIKA SRPSKA IS INCORPORATED INTO THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO).

    A LEADING U-S MILITARY ANALYST, NORMAN CIGAR [SEE-GAR] OF THE U-S MARINE CORPS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED WARFIGHTING, OFFERED SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT HE SAW AS THE MILITARY REASONS BEHIND SERBIAN PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC'S DECISION TO JOIN THE EFFORT TO END THE WAR IN BOSNIA. MR. CIGAR CALLED IT A COST-BENEFIT DECISION, WITH THE COST OF WAR FINALLY OUTWEIGHING THE BENEFITS TO BELGRADE:

    TAPE: CUT # 7 CIGAR RUNS [:40] "CONTRARY TO CONVENTIONAL WISDOM I THINK COMMITMENT ON THE SERBIAN SIDE TO THE POLITICAL GOAL AS STATED, WAS FAIRLY LIMITED. RESERVISTS BY AND LARGE IN 1991 TRIED TO AVOID BEING CALLED UP AND THOSE THAT DID OFTEN DESERTED. WE HAD VERY LARGE SCALE DESERTIONS. WHAT THAT DOES, IT AFFECTS THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS. THE POLITICAL SITUATION STARTS DETERIORATING AT HOME. POLITICAL WILL STARTS ERODING. NOT ONLY PEOPLE AT THE FRONT BUT BACK AT HOME. YOU HAVE PARENTS DEMONSTRATING. I THINK HE (MILOSEVIC) SAW THE WRITING ON THE WALL THAT POLITICAL SUPPORT IS ERODING VERY RAPIDLY AND THAT THE FUTURE CAN ONLY DETERIORATE."

    TEXT: WHEN THE BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS REALIZED THEY COULD NO LONGER COUNT ON ASSISTANCE FROM PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC AND THE YUGOSLAV ARMY, PROFESSOR CIGAR SAID THE COST-BENEFIT RATIO BEGAN TO CHANGE FOR THEM AS WELL. FOLLOWING TERRITORIAL GAINS BY THE JOINT CROAT-MUSLIM FORCES, PROFESSOR CIGAR SAID, PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC WAS FACED WITH A DILEMMA:

    TAPE: CUT # 8 CIGAR RUNS [1:08] "HE EITHER HAS TO ESCALATE OR HE HAS TO END THE WAR. ITS DIFFICULT TO ESCALATE. FIRST OF ALL, HE ECONOMY IS VERY FRAGILE, HYPER-INFLATION COULD REAPPEAR QUICKLY. I THINK THAT'S WHERE THE MILITARY AND POLITICAL NEXIS COME TOGETHER. THIS COST-BEEFIT CALCULATION, HOW CAN YOU ACHIEVE YOUR GOALS BUT NOT PAY A COST THAT'S PROHIBITIVE. I THINK ITS ALSO AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MILOSEVIC. IT'S AN OPPORTUNITY TO CONTROL THE NATIONALIST MOVEMENT. [OPT] THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF FRICTION WITH THE PEOPLE IN BOSNIA, WITH (BOSNIAN SERB LEADER RADOVAN) KARADZIC. THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR HIM TO ESTABLISH HIS DIRECT CONTROL ON BOTH SIDES OF THE (DRINA) RIVER, BETWEEN THE RIGHT-WING AND THE LEFT-WING. IT GIVES HIM LEVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME. THE BOSNIAN SERBS THEMSELVES ARE IN A POSITION WHERE THEY HAVE TOTOTALLY DEPEND ON MILOSEVIC FOR SUPPORT AND THEY HAVE TO YIELD TO HIM. HE EVEN IN FACT TAKES OVER NEGOTIATING FOR THEM. [END OPT]"

    TEXT: ANOTHER MILITARY EXPERT AT THE CONVENTION, MILAN VEGO [MEE-LAHN VAY-GO], PROFESSOR OF OPERATIONS AT THE U-S NAVAL WAR COLLEGE AT NEWPORT, RHODE ISLAND, AGREED WITH PROFESSOR CIGAR'S ANALYSIS. PROFESSOR VEGO, A CROAT-AMERICAN AND A FORMER OFFICER IN THE YUGOSLAV NATIONAL ARMY, OR J-N-A, SAID LOSS OF ARMY MORALE WAS A MAJOR FACTOR IN BRINGING PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC TO THE PEACE TABLE, ADDING THAT THE MIGHT OF THE J-N-A HAS BEEN VASTLY OVER-RATED BY THE WEST. [OPT] SEVERAL ANALYSTS SPOKE ABOUT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF U-N ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON SERBIA AND ON PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC'S DESIRE FOR PEACE. BUT WARREN ZIMMERMAN DIDN'T THINK SANCTIONS WERE DECISIVE:

    TAPE: [OPT] CUT # 9 ZIMMERMAN RUNS [:30] "THEY CERTAINLY DIDN'T DRIVE MILOSEVIC FROM POWER WHICH SOME OF US HOPED WOULD HAPPEN. THEY MAY HAVE INDEED HELPED TO CONSOLIDATE HIS POWER BECAUSE HE WAS VERY CLEVER AT USING THE SANCTIONS IN THAT DIRECTION. THEY MAY HAVE DRIVEN HIM TO SEEK A NEGOTIATED AGREEMENT ON BOSNIA. THAT IS AT LEAST WHAT HE CLAIMS NOW AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE DRIVING HIM TOWARD A MORE MODERATE POSITION THAN HE HAD BEFORE. BUT AGAIN, THAT'S OPEN TO QUESTION."

    TEXT: [OPT] WHILE THE U-N SANCTIONS DID NOT CAUSE THE DOWNFALL OF PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC, A PANEL OF ANALYSTS AGREED THEY HAD CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA -- THAT IS, SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO. SEVERAL ANALYSTS NOTED THAT THE REPUBLIC'S RATE OF INFLATION HAS BEEN MUCH HIGHER THAN IN PRE-WORLD WAR TWO GERMANY AND FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. OTHERS SAID THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN ABLE TO LURCH ALONG MAINLY THANKS TO BLACK MARKET TRADING AND WIDESPREAD SANCTIONS BUSTING. BUT MOST AGREED THAT SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO'S CONTINUING ISOLATION, MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT AND BLEAK OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE ALL CONTRIBUTED TO BRINGING PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC TO THE OHIO PEACE TALKS. [END OPT]

    BUT THE LARGER QUESTION REMAINS -- WHAT WILL A FUTURE BOSNIAN STATE LOOK LIKE? ROBERT HAYDEN AND OTHERS THINK IT WILL BE PARTITION BY ANOTHER NAME:

    TAPE: CUT # 10 HAYDEN RUNS [:50] "THE CURRENT CONSTITUTIONAL STUFF PROVIDES A FICTION, A FACADE, FOR PRETENDING THAT THE PRINCIPLE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, THAT THERE IS A BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA WHILE STILL PROVIDING THAT IN REALITY IT WILL NOT EXIST. IF THESE CONSTITUTIONAL PRINCIPLES ARE IMPLEMENTED, WHAT YOU WILL HAVE IS A SITUATION THAT ON EVERY WORLD MAP THERE WILL BE A BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA AND IN THE U-N THERE WILL BE A SEAT WITH A PLATE IN FRONT WHICH SAYS REPUBLIC OF BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA. HOWEVER, WHEN YOU GET THERE ON THE GROUND, YOU WILL DISCOVER THAT A REPUBLIC OF BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA DOESN'T EXIST IN THE CROATIAN CONTROLLED AREAS, DOES NOT EXIST IN THE SERBIAN CONTROLLED AREAS AND EVERYONE CAN PRETEND THAT THIS IS NOT SO BUT IT WILL BE SO."

    TEXT: WARREN ZIMMERMAN EXPRESSED FULL AGREEMENT WITH PROFESSOR HAYDEN'S ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK AND SAID IT SHOULD BE REQUIRED READING BY THE STATE DEPARTMENT AND ALL THE PARTICIPANTS IN THE OHIO TALKS. BUT MR. ZIMMERMAN, WHO HAS BEEN ACCUSED OF REPRESENTING THE 'IDEALISTIC' AMERICAN VIEW, AS OPPOSED TO THE 'REAL POLITIK' EUROPEAN POINT OF VIEW, HAD THIS TO SAY ON THE MATTER OF PARTITION VERSUS PRESERVING A MULTI-ETHNIC STATE:

    TAPE: CUT # 11 ZIMMERMAN RUNS [:39] "THE WORLD IS NOT A WORLD OF (ETHNIC) NATION-STATES. IF YOU LOOK AT IT, THERE ARE VERY FEW STATES IN THE WORLD THAT ARE NATION-STATES. MAYBE JAPAN IS ONE. MAYBE CHINA IS ONE, ALTHOUGH YOU GET SOME DISPUTE THERE; ICELAND PERHAPS. BUT IF YOU TRY TO NAME STATES THAT ARE PURE NATION-STATES, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO FIND VERY MANY. MOST STATES ARE IN FACT MULTI-NATIONAL, MULTI-ETHNIC. MOST STATES HAVE MAJORITY PEOPLE AND MINORITY PEOPLE. AND MOST STATES HAVE FOUND A 'MODUS VIVENDI' FOR WORKING THINGS OUT AMONG THE DIFFERENT ETHNIC GROUPS THAT LIVE IN THEM."

    TEXT: AFTER BEING CHALLENGED FOR HOLDING WHAT SOME PARTICIPATS CONSIDERED AN "UNREALISTIC, IDEALISTIC VIEW", AMBASSADOR ZIMMERMAN HAD ONE LAST REJOINDER:

    TAPE: CUT # 12 ZIMMERMAN RUNS [:49] "YOU ARE NEVER GOING TO MAKE THE BALKANS A REGION WHERE INDIVIDUAL PEOPLES LIVE SEPARATELY IN INDIVIDUAL REPUBLICS. IN THE OLD YUGOSLAVIA, SERBS LIVED IN 5 REPUBLICS. SHOULD THEY BECOME A PART OF SERBIA TODAY? IN WESTERN EUROPE TODAY, A MILLION GERMANS LIVE IN FRANCE, DOES THAT MEAN THAT ALSASCE LORAINNE SHOULD GO BACK TO GERMANY? HUNGARIANS ARE SPREAD AMONG FOUR COUNTRIES, DOES THAT MEAN THAT HUNGARY SHOULD INCORPORATE THE HUNGARIAN AREAS OF THOSE COUNTRIES? I THINK THE HUNGARIANS HAVE HANDLED IT REMARKABLY WELL BY MAKING AGREEMENTS WITH THOSE COUNTRIES, WHERE HUNGARIANS LIVE, TO DEAL FAIRLY WITH THE HUNGARIAN MINORITY."

    TEXT: ONE OF THE FEW BOSNIAN SCHOLARS AT THE CONVENTION, ZORAN PAJIC [PIE-ITCH], A FORMER PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL LAW AT SARAJEVO UNIVERSITY, IS LIVING TESTIMONY TO BOSNIAN MULTI-CULTURALISM. NOW A LECTURER AT KINGS COLLEGE OF LAW IN LONDON, PROFESSOR PAJIC WAS BORN IN MOSTAR, THE CROATIAN PART OF BOSNIA, AND RAISED AS A CHILD IN SERBIAN BANJA LUKA. HE SPENT HIS ADULT LIFE IN SARAJEVO AND SAYS HIS ETHNIC MAKEUP IS SO MIXED HE CANNOT TODAY QUALIFY AS A MEMBER OF ANY ONE GROUP. PROFESSOR PAJIC FLED TO BRITAIN IN THE SUMMER OF 1992 AFTER MONTHS OF NON-STOP SHELLING OF SARAJEVO BY SERB FORCES. HE RECALLED A MEMORY OF SARAJEVO -- WHICH HE FEARS HE WILL NEVER SEE AGAIN -- AN EASTER LUNCH IN APRIL 1992 WITH RELIGIOUS LEADERS REPRESENTING THE REPUBLIC'S FOUR MAIN FAITHS: CATHOLOCISM, EASTERN ORTHODOXY, JUDIASM & ISLAM:

    TAPE: CUT # 13 PAJIC RUNS [:50] "TODAY, MORE THAN THREE YEARS AFTER THAT SOLOMN EVENT, I REALIZE THAT WE WERE, THE PEOPLE AT THAT LUNCH, WERE THE REPRESENTATIVES OF EVERYTHING OF THE WAR TO COME. WE WERE THE REPRESENTATIVES OF PEACE, TOLERANCE, THE COSMOPOLITAN TRADITION OF BOSNIA AND ITS MULTI-RELIGIOUS AND CULTURAL FABRIC. IN THE WAR IN YUGOSLAVIA IN GENERAL AND IN BOSNIA IN PARTICULAR, THE IDEA OF PLURALISM HAS BEEN BETRAYED, HAS BEEN ABANDONED AND IN FACT BY ABANDONING THE IDEA OF PLURALISM I THINK A KIND OF NORMALITY OF THE WAY THAT HUMAN BEINGS LIVE HAS ALSO BEEN ABANDONED."

    TEXT: PROFESSOR PAJIC SAID HE FEARED THAT THE FINAL OUTCOME OF THE OHIO PEACE TALKS MIGHT WELL BE, AS PROFESSOR HAYDEN BELIEVES, A DE FACTO PARTITION OF HIS COUNTRY:

    TAPE: CUT # 14 PAJIC RUNS [1:07] "IT'S MAYBE EARLY TO SAY BUT THE AMERICAN PEACE PLAN HAS FALLEN INTO THE SAME TRAP. IT'S FOLLOWING A STEREOTYPE ACCORDING TO WHICH ALL SERBS, MUSLIMS OR CROATS BLINDLY FOLLOW THEIR RESPECTIVE LEADERS IN THE REGION. THE AMERICAN PEACE PLAN, AMONG OTHER THINGS, WILL LEGITIMIZE ETHNIC CLEANSING AND DEFINITELY WILL OPEN THE NEW APPETITE FOR FURTHER ETHNIC CLEANSING AND FURTHER WAGING OF WARS. [OPT] IT WILL DEFINITELY MEAN THAT INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS ARE ABANDONED IN THE REGION BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO REALIZE THAT NOT ONLY IN BOSNIA OR THIS STRUCTURE THAT IS BEING PUT FORWARD BUT IN ALMOST ALL PARTS OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, YOU HAVE TO REALIZE THAT IF YOU DO NOT BELONG TO A GROUP, YOU DO NOT EXIST AS AN INDIVIDUAL IN TERMS OF HUMAN RIGHTS, CIVIL RIGHTS, POLITICAL RIGHTS. [END OPT]"

    TEXT: PROFESSOR PAJIC CRITICIZED THE WEST FOR FAILING TO SUPPORT DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION GROUPS IN SERBIA AND BOSNIA AND FOR SPEAKING ONLY TO NATIONALIST LEADERS. HE ALSO SAID HE BELIEVES THE UNITED STATES AND THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY WILL ONE DAY REGRET NOT DEFENDING WESTERN IDEALS LIKE PLURALISM BECAUSE OF THEIR CONCERN WITH THE PRAGMATIC REALITIES OF MILITARY INVOLVEMENT. CART: THEME (ESTABLISH, FADE UNDER) ANNCR: YOU HAVE BEEN LISTENING TO INTERNATIONAL FOCUS ON THE VOICE OF AMERICA. TODAY'S PROGRAM LOOKED AT WHAT SCHOLARS AT A RECENT AMERICAN SLAVIC STUDIES CONVENTION IN WASHINGTON HAD TO SAY ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE AT THE CURRENT OHIO TALKS ON BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA. IT WAS WRITTEN AND NARRATED BY PAMELA TAYLOR, EDITED BY PHIL HAYNES, PRODUCED BY TOM SARGENT AND DIRECTED BY FELICIA BUTLER. TUNE IN AGAIN NEXT WEEK AT THIS SAME TIME INTERNATIONAL FOCUS AGAIN LOOKS AT AN ISSUE OR EVENT OF GLOBAL INTEREST. CART: THEME (UP AND FILL FOR TIME)

    NEB/PAM/PCH
    31-Oct-95 4:01 PM EST (2101 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America
    .


    [05] BOSNIA TALKS BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (ZAGREB)

    DATE=10/31/95
    TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
    NUMBER=5-31518
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: AFTER MORE THAN FOUR YEARS OF WARFARE IN THE BALKANS, THE LEADERS OF SERBIA, BOSNIA AND CROATIA ARE POISED TO MEET WITH INTERNATIONAL MEDIATORS AT AN AIR FORCE BASE IN THE AMERICAN MIDWEST, IN WHAT MANY ANALYSTS ARE CALLING THE BEST AND PERHAPS THE LAST CHANCE FOR A PEACE SETTLEMENT. VOA'S DOUGLAS ROBERTS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE PEACE TALKS IN THIS BACKGROUND REPORT FROM ZAGREB.

    TEXT: THE WORLD MAY NEVER KNOW THE TRUE EXTENT OF THE FOUR YEAR OLD HORROR IN THE BALKANS. MORE THAN 200 THOUSAND DEAD IS THE FIGURE MOST OFTEN CITED FOR THE BOSNIAN CONFLICT. BUT THAT DOES NOT INCLUDE THOSE KILLED IN NEIGHBORING CROATIA.

    FEW ANALYSTS HAVE EVEN ATTEMPTED TO TABULATE THE NUMBER OF WOUNDED. AND ONLY NOW ARE OFFICIALS BEGINNING TO COME TO GRIPS WITH THE MATERIAL COSTS, WITH ESTIMATES OF THE RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS IN BOSNIA ALONE RANGING FROM THREE TO 12 BILLION DOLLARS.

    MILLIONS OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN UPROOTED FROM THEIR HOMES -- EITHER BECAUSE OF THE WARFARE OR AS A RESULT OF THE INFAMOUS ETHNIC CLEANSING CAMPAIGNS THAT HAVE BEEN A GRIM HALLMARK OF THE CONFLICT -- MOST, BUT NOT ALL OF THEM, ORCHESTRATED BY SERB FORCES.

    THE U-N REFUGEE AGENCY SAYS THREE AND A HALF MILLION PEOPLE IN BOSNIA, CROATIA AND SERBIA REMAIN PARTLY OR ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN RELIEF. AND U-N OFFICIALS SAY MANY OF THEM WILL FACE GREAT HARDSHIP AND SUFFERING DURING THE BALKAN WINTER, REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME OF THE PEACE CONFERENCE.

    THE MAN AT THE CENTER OF THE DIPLOMATIC EFFORT -- U-S ENVOY RICHARD HOLBROOKE -- SAYS THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE TALKS IN OHIO WILL SUCCEED. IF NOT, HE WARNS, BOSNIA WILL SLIDE BACK INTO WARFARE.

    BUT BOSNIA IS NOT THE ONLY CONCERN. U-S AND U-N MEDIATORS HAVE SO FAR BEEN UNABLE TO PROD CROATIAN AND REBEL SERB LEADERS INTO A SETTLEMENT OF THE EASTERN SLAVONIA QUESTION. AND IT HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE AGENDA OF THE OHIO MEETING.

    THE LAST STRIP OF REBEL-HELD TERRITORY IN CROATIA, EASTERN SLAVONIA IS NOW CONSIDERED BY MANY ANALYSTS TO BE THE MOST DANGEROUS FLASHPOINT IN THE BALKANS. DESPITE REPEATED WARNINGS FROM WESTERN LEADERS, PRESIDENT FRANJO TUDJMAN CONTINUES TO THREATEN MILITARY ACTION TO RETAKE THE REGION UNLESS SERB LEADERS AGREE TO A PEACEFUL HANDOVER BY THE END OF NOVEMBER. AND THERE ARE REAL FEARS THAT A CROATIAN ATTACK WOULD DRAW IN THE SERB-DOMINATED YUGOSLAV ARMY, EFFECTIVELY SHATTERING THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE.

    AT THE OUTSET OF THE OHIO MEETING, THE U-S, RUSSIAN AND EUROPEAN MEDIATORS ARE EXPECTED TO TABLE A NUMBER OF PROPOSALS, DESIGNED TO ADD FLESH TO THE BONES OF THE PEACE PLAN FOR BOSNIA THAT HAS BEEN EMERGING OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS.

    THE SARAJEVO GOVERNMENT AND BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS HAVE AGREED TO A SET OF PRINCIPLES COVERING BOTH TERRITORIAL ISSUES AND FUTURE CONSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS. BUT, IN A WELL-WORN PHRASE FREQUENTLY USED BY DIPLOMATS AND ANALYSTS HERE, THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.

    BOTH SIDES HAVE ALREADY STAKED OUT WHAT SEEM TO BE MAXIMALIST POSITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON THE TERRITORIAL DIVISION BETWEEN BOSNIA'S SERBS AND THE MUSLIM-CROAT FEDERATION.

    AMONG THE THORNIEST ISSUES ARE THE FATE OF SARAJEVO AND A NARROW CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN BOSNIA THAT LINKS SERB HELD AREAS WITH YUGOSLAVIA.

    POWER-SHARING IN A POST-WAR BOSNIA IS ANOTHER KEY HURDLE FOR THE MEDIATORS. AND THE TWO SIDES ALSO APPEAR AT ODDS OVER THE ROLE OF THE 60-THOUSAND NATO TROOPS THAT WOULD BE DEPLOYED TO HELP IMPLEMENT A SETTLEMENT.

    BUT DESPITE THE UNCERTAIN PROSPECTS, THE U-N PEACEKEEPING OPERATION IN THE BALKANS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN. SIX THOUSAND U-N TROOPS HAVE BEEN WITHDRAWN FROM CROATIA DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS. AND FEWER THAN THREE THOUSAND WILL REMAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. THE PEACEKEEPERS IN BOSNIA ARE ALSO PREPARING TO LEAVE.

    THE CHIEF U-N ENVOY FOR THE REGION, JAPANESE DIPLOMAT YASUSHI AKASHI, FORMALLY STEPPED DOWN ON THE EVE OF THE OHIO PEACE CONFERENCE. AND WHILE HE IS BEING REPLACED BY UNDER-SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI ANNAN, U-N OFFICIALS SAY IT IS A TEMPORARY ASSIGNMENT AIMED AT OVERSEEING THE TRANSITION OF PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS FROM THE U-N TO NATO.

    AT A FAREWELL NEWS CONFERENCE HERE, MR. AKASHI SAID HE IS ENDING HIS MISSION WITH MIXED FEELINGS; SAD THAT THE JOB OF BRINGING PEACE TO THE BALKANS HAS YET TO BE COMPLETED, BUT SATISFIED THAT THE PROSPECTS SEEM BETTER NOW THAN EVER BEFORE.

    // OPT //

    MR. AKASHI HAS FACED SHARP CRITICISM FOR THE U-N'S FAILURE TO HALT THE WARFARE OR TO PREVENT THE ATROCITIES AND MASSIVE HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSE THAT HAVE ACCOMPANIED IT. BUT HE DEFENDED THE U-N EFFORT, SAYING THE PEACEKEEPERS LACKED BOTH THE RESOURCES AND A CLEAR MANDATE TO END THE BLOODSHED. IT WAS, FROM THE OUTSET, HE SAID, AN ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE MISSION.

    // OPT AKASHI ACT //

    AND I THINK WE HAD TO COME IN EVEN THOUGH THE CONDITIONS WERE NOT IDEAL FOR THE SUCCESS OF OUR MISSION. IT WAS ESSENTIALLY A HOLDING OPERATION, IN (THE) ABSENCE OF (A) GRAND STRATEGY FOR PEACE.

    // END ACT //

    // OPT //

    THAT GRAND STRATEGY FOR PEACE HAS FINALLY EMERGED. BUT WHETHER IT WILL SUCCEED REMAINS TO BE SEEN. // END OPT // (SIGNED)

    NEB/DBR/MH/CF
    31-Oct-95 1:05 PM EST (1805 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America
    .


    [06] BOSNIA PEACE TALKS IN OHIO BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=10/31/95
    TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
    NUMBER=6-09244
    TELEPHONE=619-3335
    EDITOR=NEAL LAVON
    CONTENT=

    INTRO: THE PRESIDENTS OF BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA, CROATIA AND SERBIA ARE HEADING FOR WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE JUST OUTSIDE DAYTON, OHIO, THIS WEEK TO BEGIN TALKS (WEDNESDAY 11/1) AIMED AT FINDING A LASTING PEACE FOR THE BALKANS. SPEAKING ON THE EVE OF THE PEACE CONFERENCE, PRESIDENT CLINTON URGED ALL SIDES TO NEGOTIATE SERIOUSLY, AND WARNED THAT IF THE TALKS FAIL, THE CONFLICT COULD RESUME AND SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

    ACROSS THE NATION, EDITORIAL WRITERS AND COLUMNISTS ARE ALSO DISCUSSING THE DAYTON CONFERENCE AND FOR A SAMPLING OF THEIR THOUGHTS, WE TURN TO _____________AND TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.

    TEXT: THE SITE WAS CHOSEN BECAUSE THE AIR BASE IS ONE OF THE MOST SECURE WITHIN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES AND THE PARTIES TO THE TALKS WILL HAVE COMPLETE ISOLATION FOR WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE, LONG AND DIFFICULT DISCUSSIONS. THERE IS GUARDED OPTIMISM IN SOME PAPERS THAT THE END TO FIGHTING IN BOSNIA MAY BE AT HAND, WHILE OTHERS WORRY THAT ANY DEEPER U-S INVOLVEMENT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER DEADLY VIETNAM-STYLE QUAGMIRE.

    WE BEGIN OUR SAMPLING WITH "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES" WHICH WONDERS: "IS THE END IN SIGHT FOR BOSNIAN AGONY?"

    VOICE: "... A DECLARATION OF PEACE - - AND A TERRITORIAL SETTLEMENT - - MAY NOT BE THE HARD PART. THE PLAYERS HAVE ALREADY ACCEPTED A ROUGH AMERICAN OUTLINE ON DIVISION OF THE BLOODIED SOIL. AN EDGY CEASE-FIRE IS HOLDING. IN BOSNIA ALL SIDES SEEM PREPARED TO TALK ... BUT IN THE RUSH TO FIND RESOLUTION IN BOSNIA, DECLARING A PEACE AMONG THE COMBATANTS IS ALREADY TAKING A POLITICAL BACK SEAT TO THE BIG POWER MUDDLE OVER ENFORCING THE PEACE. ..... THE QUESTION OF A RUSSIAN ROLE IN KEEPING THE PEACE IS KEEPING THE LIGHTS ON LATE AT THE STATE DEPARTMENT. ... BUT MOSCOW IS NOT THE ONLY STICKING POINT ON THE PEACEKEEPING PROPOSAL. [PRESIDENT] CLINTON NEEDS ONLY TO LOOK TO CAPITOL HILL TO FIND A CONGRESSIONAL BLOC WONDERING WHY AMERICA WOULD WANT TO PUT ITS SOLDIERS INTO THE MIDDLE OF A SIMMERING EUROPEAN CONFLICT, TRUCE OR NO TRUCE."

    TEXT: TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST, "THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS" SAYS THERE ARE MANY IMPORTANT, AND SO FAR, STILL UNANSWERED QUESTIONS, ABOUT U-S INVOLVEMENT IN ANY PEACEKEEPING EFFORT GROWING OUT OF THE DAYTON TALKS. THE DALLAS PAPER WANTS MORE INFORMATION ON THESE KEY QUESTIONS, AS IT WARNS ABOUT A REPEAT OF THE PEACEKEEPING EXPERIENCE IN SOMALIA.

    VOICE: "WHAT THE SPECIFIC U-S MISSION WILL BE: HOW LONG THE DEPLOYMENT WILL LAST; WHAT THE STRATEGY WILL BE FOR WITHDRAWING U-S FORCES SHOULD THINGS FALL APART. A GOOD-FAITH OUTLINE IS ESSENTIAL NOT ONLY TO ENSURE DOMESTIC SUPPORT BUT TO REINFORCE THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION MISSION. WITHOUT FIRM U-S PARTICIPATION, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT WHETHER OUR EUROPEAN PARTNERS WILL ACT AS DECISIVELY AS THEY SHOULD IN IMPLEMENTING A PEACE AGREEMENT. "

    TEXT: IN A RECENT EDITION OF "THE MIAMI HERALD", KNIGHT-RIDDER COLUMNIST AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS ANALYST TRUDY RUBIN QUOTES CZECH PHILOSOPHER-PRESIDENT VACLAV HAVEL ON WHY THE FATE OF BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA IS STILL VERY MUCH AN AMERICAN PROBLEM.

    VOICE: "'WHAT IS AT STAKE IS THE VERY PRINCIPLES UNDERLYING A PEACEFUL AND INTEGRATED EUROPE. ..... ON THE ONE SIDE ... 'IS THE MODERN CONCEPT OF AN OPEN CIVIL SOCIETY IN WHICH PEOPLE OF DIFFERENT NATIONALITIES, ETHNIC ROOTS, RELIGIONS ... CAN LIVE TOGETHER,' - - A CONCEPT THAT WAS PROMOTED INITIALLY BY THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT, BUT REJECTED BY BOSNIAN SERBS. 'ON THE OTHER SIDE ... IS THE ARCHAIC CONCEPT OF A TRIBAL STATE AS A COMMUNITY OF PEOPLE OF THE SAME BLOOD' - - A CONCEPT EMBRACED BY BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS AND MANY OF THEIR CROATIAN COUNTERPARTS. A VICTORY BY ULTRANATIONALIST SERBIAN (OR CROATIAN) LEADERS IN BOSNIA WOULD BE A SIGNAL TO RIGHT-WING LEADERS IN RUSSIA AND EASTERN AND WESTERN EUROPE TO STIR UP ETHNIC FEARS AT A TIME WHEN THE OLD COLD WAR CERTAINTIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO CONFUSION ABOUT THE FUTURE."

    TEXT: BUT ANOTHER SYNDICATED COLUMNIST, CAL THOMAS, WRITING IN "THE SAINT LOUIS POST-DISPATCH", WARNS OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL VIETNAM-STYLE QUAGMIRE INVOLVING U-S TROOPS.

    VOICE: "WHERE HAVE WE SEEN THIS SCENE BEFORE? THE PRESIDENT AND HIGHRANKING OFFICIALS OF THE ADMINISTRATION TELL MEMBERS OF CONGRESS THEY WANT TO SEND A RELATIVELY SMALL NUMBER OF AMERICAN TROOPS TO A FOREIGN LAND TO HELP END A BLOODY WAR. NOT TO WORRY, THOUGH. WHILE THEY WON'T BE HOME BY THIS CHRISTMAS, THEY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE HOME BY NEXT CHRISTMAS. ..... IF VIETNAM WAS QUICKSAND THAT SLOWLY SUCKED AMERICA IN, BOSNIA COULD EASILY BE A BLACK HOLE. OR, IF THE PRESIDENT'S LUCK HOLDS, IT COULD BE HAITI, WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED OUT FAR BETTER THAN MANY, INCLUDING MYSELF, THOUGHT. BUT HAITI ISN'T BOSNIA AND THE DYNAMICS AND DANGERS ARE DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT. [OPT] FIRST, WHY ARE WE PREPARED TO SEND TROOPS WHEN THERE IS NO OFFICIAL PEACE AGREEMENT? ... OF EVEN LARGER CONCERN SHOULD BE THE ENTRY OF RUSSIAN TROOPS, WHO WILL BE ON THE SIDE OF THE SERBS AND, BY THEIR CHOICE, NOT UNDER NATO COMMAND. THIS COULD PLACE U-S TROOPS IN DIRECT CONFRONTATION WITH RUSSIAN TROOPS, WHICH IMMENSELY RAISES THE STAKES IN THIS WORRISOME SITUATION." [END OPT].

    TEXT: AND LASTLY, "THE CHICAGO TRIBUNE" SAYS THERE MAY BE SOME UNPLEASANT ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES FOR THOSE WHO EXECUTED THIS WAR WHEN IT IS FINALLY OVER.

    VOICE: "POLITICIANS, NOT ARMIES, MAKE WAR. POLITICIANS, NOT ARMIES, END A WAR. AS THE LATE YUGOSLAVIA STUMBLES TOWARD ARMISTICE, IT IS MOST IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT POLITICIANS, AND NOT ARMIES, ALSO CAN PREVENT WAR. THAT IS WHY A NEW CONSENSUS IS EMERGING IN CENTRAL EUROPE THAT THE WAR IN YUGOSLAVIA IS ACTING AS A BRAKE ON REGIONAL CONFLICT. WHEN THIS VILE WAR IS OVER, THOSE WHO DREAMT OF BUILDING A GREATER SERBIA BY CARVING UP CROATIA AND BOSNIA WILL BE INTERNATIONAL SCOUNDRELS - - EVEN WAR CRIMINALS - - SENTENCED TO LIFE IN AN ECONOMIC WASTELAND THAT IS A MUCH LESSER SERBIA THAN WHAT THEY HAD BEFORE. WHAT POL [POLITICIAN] DREAMS OF THAT?"

    TEXT: AND ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF SOME OPINIONS ON THE SITUATION IN THE BALKANS AS PEACE TALKS GET UNDERWAY TOMORROW IN DAYTON, OHIO.

    ANG/NL 31-Oct-95 2:41 PM EST (1941 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America
    .


    [07] CLINTON / BOSNIA O'NITE (S-O) BY DAVID BORGIDA (WHITE HOUSE)

    DATE=10/31/95
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-187780
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: AS THE PRESIDENTS OF SERBIA, BOSNIA, AND CROATIA PREPARE TO MEET IN DAYTON, OHIO, TO NEGOTIATE A BOSNIAN PEACE, PRESIDENT CLINTON MEETS WITH A BIPARTISAN GROUP OF CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS (WEDNESDAY) (LATER TODAY) TO DISCUSS POSSIBLE U-S TROOP PARTICIPATION IN A NATO PEACEKEEPING FORCE IN BOSNIA. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT DAVID BORGIDA REPORTS.

    TEXT: THE MEETING COMES AMID HEIGHTENED TENSION BETWEEN THE ADMINISTRATION AND CONGRESS OVER U-S TROOP PARTICIPATION IN ANY NATO PEACEKEEPING FORCE. LATE MONDAY, THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES VOTED TO WARN THE PEACE NEGOTIATORS THEY COULD NOT COUNT ON U-S TROOP PARTICIPATION.

    BUT PRESIDENT CLINTON INSISTS U-S LEADERSHIP IN NATO IS REQUIRED AND THAT MEANS U-S TROOPS HAVE TO TAKE PART IN A NATO FORCE IF THAT LEADERSHIP IS TO BE VIEWED AS RELIABLE. IN REMARKS TUESDAY, HE SOUGHT TO REASSURE LAWMAKERS AND THE PUBLIC U-S TROOPS, IN HIS WORDS, "WOULD NOT BE ASKED TO KEEP A PEACE THAT CAN NOT BE KEPT."

    CLINTON SPOKESMAN MIKE MCCURRY SAYS THE PRESIDENT WILL CONVEY TWO MAIN POINTS.

    /// MCCURRY ACT ///

    (1) OUR SENSE OF WHERE THE DISCUSSIONS ARE GOING IN NATO, AT THE NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL, ON PLANNING FOR AN IMPLEMENTATION FORCE IF WE ARE SUCCESSFUL IN GETTING A PEACE AGREEMENT IN DAYTON. (2) AND AGAIN, TO REMIND THEM OF THE RESPONSIBILITIES THE UNITED STATES HAS IN THIS WORLD AS WE ADDRESS WHAT HAS BEEN THE MOST TROUBLING EPISODE OF INSTABILITY IN EUROPE SINCE WORLD WAR TWO.

    /// END ACT ///

    THE PRESIDENT LAST MET WITH CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS ON BOSNIA IN LATE SEPTEMBER. (SIGNED)

    NEB / DB / BD / JM
    31-Oct-95 4:31 PM EST (2131 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America
    .


    [08] CONGRESS-BOSNIA TALKS BY PAULA WOLFSON (CONGRESS)

    DATE=10/31/95
    TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
    NUMBER=5-31523
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT: *INTRO: ON THE DAY THE BOSNIA PEACE TALKS OPEN, PRESIDENT CLINTON IS PLANNING TO MEET WITH CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS. HE IS LIKELY TO ASK FOR THEIR SUPPORT AS THE NEGOTIATIONS UNFOLD. BUT AS V-O-A'S PAULA WOLFSON TELLS US IN THIS BACKGROUND REPORT, IT WILL BE A TOUGH TO SELL.TO SKEPTICAL LAWMAKERS.

    TEXT: EVERYONE IN CONGRESS WANTS THE BOSNIA TALKS TO SUCCEED. BUT MANY LAWMAKERS SHARE A DEEP FEAR TENS OF THOUSANDS OF AMERICAN SOLDIERS WILL RISK THEIR LIVES TO ENFORCE A VERY FRAGILE PEACE.

    //OPT BURTON TEASE ACT//

    WE FEEL VERY VERY STRONGLY THE PRESIDENT'S FULL COURT PRESS (STRONG EFFORT) TO GET US INTO THE WAR IN BOSNIA IS A GROSS MISTAKE.

    // END OPT ACT //

    REPUBLICAN DAN BURTON OF INDIANA IS A SENIOR MEMBER OF THE HOUSE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS COMMITTEE.

    //BURTON ACT//

    WE BELIEVE THIS IS A CIVIL WAR AND WE SHOULD NOT BE INVOLVING AMERICAN TROOPS IN THIS WAR. WE BELIEVE IT IS GOING TO END UP WITH MANY AMERICANS BEING KILLED OR MAIMED.

    // END ACT //

    ON MONDAY, THE HOUSE OVERWHELMINGLY PASSED A RESOLUTION DESIGNED TO SEND A MESSAGE TO THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE WORLD. IT SAID THE BOSNIA NEGOTIATORS SHOULD NOT COUNT ON THE PRESENCE OF U-S TROOPS TO ENFORCE A PEACE AGREEMENT -- AND THAT PRESIDENT CLINTON SHOULD NOT PROMISE ANYTHING WITHOUT THE CONSENT OF CONGRESS.

    THE RESOLUTION IS NON-BINDING ON THE PRESIDENT AND DOES NOT HAVE THE FORCE OF LAW. BUT IT DOES SHOW THAT THE LEGISLATURE IS WILLING TO CHALLENGE THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION AND DO ALL IT CAN TO BLOCK AN AMERICAN PEACEKEEPING EFFORT IN BOSNIA.

    CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS ARE SPEAKING OUT THE LOUDEST, AND THEY DOMINATED HOUSE DEBATE ON THE RESOLUTION. PRESIDENT CLINTON RESPONDED TO THE VOTE WITH A BRIEF BROADCAST ADDRESS IN WHICH HE URGED ALL AMERICANS TO FOCUS ON ACHIEVING PEACE IN BOSNIA. HE ALSO EMPHASIZED THAT, IF THERE IS A PEACE ACCORD, AMERICAN TROOPS WILL BE DEPLOYED.

    THOSE WORDS TOUCHED OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF RHETORICAL WARFARE ON CAPITOL HILL. CONSERVATIVES CALLED A NEWS CONFERENCE WHERE MANY SPEAKERS -- LIKE JOHN DOOLITTLE OF CALIFORNIA -- WARNED AMERICA COULD FACE A REPEAT OF THE VIETNAM WAR.

    ////DOOLITTLE ACT/////

    GEORGE WASHINGTON AND THE FOUNDERS OF THIS COUNTRY TOLD US TO AVOID ENTANGLING ALLIANCES. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, I CAN'T THINK OF A BETTER EXAMPLE OF ENTANGLEMENT THAN THIS BOSNIA SITUATION --- YOU STEP FORWARD ONE STEP AND YOU BECOME ENMESHED IN A WEB OF INTRIGUE THAT LEADS TO THE LOSS OF LIFE.

    ////END ACT////

    BUT THERE WERE OTHER VOICES HEARD IN THE LEGISLATURE. DEMOCRAT JAMES MORAN OF VIRGINIA CHASTISED THE HOUSE FOR ITS BOSNIA RESOLUTION.

    ///MORAN ACT///

    THE VOTE THAT WE TOOK YESTERDAY (MONDAY) EVEN THOUGH IT WAS OVERWHELMING ON BOSNIA WAS A MISTAKE. IT UNDERMINED THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT. IT UNDERMINED AMERICA'S POSITION AS THE LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD. I THINK WE WILL LIVE TO REGRET IT.

    ////END ACT////

    PRESIDENT CLINTON HAS SAID HE WELCOMES A VOTE IN CONGRESS ON A DECISION TO DEPLOY TROOPS IN BOSNIA. BUT HE HAS LEFT NO DOUBT HE BELIEVES HE HAS THE AUTHORITY TO SEND THE SOLDIERS WITHOUT THE APPROVAL OF THE LEGISLATURE.

    OPPONENTS HAVE STRESSED THEY WILL FIGHT A DEPLOYMENT WITH EVERY MEANS AT THEIR DISPOSAL. THEY SAY PRESIDENT CLINTON MUST CONVINCE THEM AMERICAN PARTICIPATION IN A RISKY MILITARY OPERATION IS IN THE NATION'S BEST INTEREST. ONE LAWMAKER PUT IT THIS WAY: "WE KNOW THE PRESIDENT WANTS TO DO THIS; WE STILL DO NOT KNOW WHY." (SIGNED)

    NEB/PW/GPT
    31-Oct-95 3:59 PM EST (2059 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America
    .


    [09] CONGRESS-BOSNIA (S) BY PAULA WOLFSON (CONGRESS)

    DATE=10/30/95
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-187725
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: THE U-S HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES IS SENDING A MESSAGE TO THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE PARTICIPANRTS IN THE BOSNIAN PEACE TALKS. V-O-A'S PAULA WOLFSON REPORTS, LAWMAKERS ARE STRESSING THEIR OPPOSITION TO ANY DEPLOYMENT OF U-S FORCES (AS PART OF A PEACEKEEPING OPERATION) WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL.

    TEXT: THE HOUSE RESOLUTION OUTRAGED TOP CLINTON ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS.

    WHILE IT DOES NOT HAVE THE FORCE OF LAW, THE RESOLUTION DEMONSTRATES DEEP SKEPTICISM IN CONGRESS ABOUT THE NEED FOR A U-S DEPLOYMENT IN BOSNIA. IT SAYS THE PARTIES TO THE PEACE TALKS SHOULD NOT PRESUME AMERICAN TROOPS WILL HELP ENFORCE AN AGREEMENT.

    SPEAKER NEWT GINGRICH TOSSED ASIDE ACCUSATIONS THE RESOLUTION WILL HARM THE PEACE PROCESS. HE SAID CONGRESS HAS A LEGITIMATE SAY IN ANY DECISION TO DEPLOY U-S FORCES.

    ///GINGRICH ACT///

    WE THINK THE PRESIDENT HAS AN OBLIGATION TO EDUCATE THE COUNTRY AND MAKE SURE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AND THE CONGRESS ARE WITH HIM BEFORE HE PROMISES THINGS IN BOSNIA.

    ////END ACT////

    THE BOSNIA TALKS ARE SCHEDULED TO OPEN WEDNESDAY AT AN AIR FORCE BASE IN THE STATE OF OHIO. (SIGNED)

    NEB/PW/CB/PT
    30-Oct-95 9:22 PM EST (0222 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America
    .


    [10] CROATIA/ELECTIONS (S ONLY) BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS ( ZAGREB )

    DATE=10/31/95
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-187775
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: ALMOST COMPLETE RETURNS FROM SUNDAY'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN CROATIA CONFIRM THE RULING DEMOCRATIC UNION WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FORCE IN THE LEGISLATURE. BUT, AS WE HEAR FROM V-O-A'S DOUGLAS ROBERTS IN ZAGREB, OPPOSITION PARTIES HAVE MADE A STRONGER THAN EXPECTED SHOWING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC UNION LED BY PRESIDENT FRANJO TUDJMAN HAS NOT ACHIEVED ITS STATED GOAL OF A TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT.

    TEXT: A FIVE-PARTY ALLIANCE OF OPPOSITION GROUPS WON MORE THAN 18-PERCENT OF THE VOTE. THE SOCIALIST LIBERAL PARTY, THE STRONGEST OPPOSITION FORCE IN THE OUTGOING PARLIAMENT, LOST GROUND, BUT WILL RETAIN SOME SEATS IN THE NEW LEGISLATURE. THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS, CROATIA'S FORMER COMMUNIST PARTY, DID BETTER THAN EXPECTED, GARNERING NEARLY 10-PERCENT OF THE VOTE. WITH ALMOST ALL THE RETURNS IN, PRESIDENT TUJDMAN'S DEMOCRATIC UNION OUT-POLLED ALL THE OPPOSITION GROUPS COMBINED, AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD MORE THAN 70 OF THE 127 SEATS IN THE LOWER HOUSE OF THE LEGISLATURE, KNOWN AS THE SABOR. BUT SEVERAL KEY FIGURES IN THE DEMOCRATIC UNION LOST THEIR SEATS IN PARLIAMENT, AND THE OPPOSITION WILL BE IN POSITION TO BLOCK ANY CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS PUT FORWARD BY THE RULING PARTY. ANALYSTS ARE ATTRIBUTING THE RELATIVELY STRONG OPPOSITION SHOWING TO CROATIA'S ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS AND TO ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION AND MISMANAGEMENT WITHIN THE RULING PARTY. (SIGNED)

    NEB/DBR/MH/RAE
    31-Oct-95 3:03 PM EST (2003 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America
    .


    [11] NATO / LUBBERS (L) BY JOHN FRASER (BRUSSELS)

    DATE=10/31/95
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-187757
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: FORMER DUTCH PRIME MINISTER RUUD LUBBERS HAS EMERGED AS THE FAVORITE IN THE RACE TO BECOME THE NEXT SECRETARY GENERAL OF NATO. AS JOHN FRASER REPORTS FROM BRUSSELS, MR. LUBBERS NOW HAS THE SUPPORT OF BRITAIN, FRANCE, AND GERMANY.

    TEXT: ON MONDAY, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER JOHN MAJOR AND FRENCH PRESIDENT JACQUES CHIRAC VOICED THEIR SUPPORT FOR 56-YEAR-OLD RUUD LUBBERS AS THE NEXT POLITICAL HEAD OF NATO.

    THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITHIN 24 HOURS BY A STATEMENT FROM CHANCELLOR HELMUT KOHL OF GERMANY, WHO SAID THAT IF MR LUBBERS BECOMES A CANDIDATE, GERMANY WILL SUPPORT HIM. OFFICIALS SAY GERMAN SUPPORT IS VITAL, AS MR LUBBERS WAS VETOED BY CHANCELLOR KOHL LAST YEAR WHEN THE DUTCHMAN SOUGHT THE PRESIDENCY OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION.

    THE NEWS THAT HOLLAND'S FORMER PRIME MINISTER IS EXPECTED TO GET THE NATO JOB WILL COME AS A BLOW TO EUROPEAN UNION TRADE COMMISSIONER LEON BRITTAN, WHO HAD BEEN STRONGLY SUPPORTED FOR THE POST, ALTHOUGH HE HAD NOT FORMALLY DECLARED HIS CANDIDACY. MR. BRITTAN HAS BEEN LANGUISHING IN THE E-U'S BRUSSELS HEADQUARTERS THIS YEAR, AFTER BEING STRIPPED OF RESPONSIBILITY FOR E-U POLICY TOWARDS CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE.

    MR. LUBBERS WAS HOLLAND'S LONGEST-SERVING PRIME MINISTER UNTIL HE STEPPED DOWN FROM THE JOB IN MAY OF LAST YEAR. HE IS KNOWN AS A POLITICAL FIXER, AND A PRAGMATIST. HE IS ALSO A HARD WORKER, PREFERRING TO MUNCH A SANDWICH AND DRINK A GLASS OF MILK IN HIS OFFICE, RATHER THAN HAVE THE LONG LUNCHES WHICH MANY OF EUROPE'S OTHER LEADERS TEND TO ENJOY. HIS FAMILY HAS AN ENGINEERING BUSINESS, WHICH HAS MADE HIM A FINANCIALLY-INDEPENDENT MILLIONAIRE.

    THE NATO SECRETARY-GENERAL JOB BECAME VACANT ON THE 20TH OF OCTOBER AFTER THE PREVIOUS INCUMBENT, BELGIAN WILLY CLAES, RESIGNED WHEN THE BELGIAN PARLIAMENT VOTED HE COULD BE PUT ON TRIAL ON CORRUPTION CHARGES.

    NATO OFFICIALS SAY THE FORMAL PROCEDURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO ASSESS MR. LUBBERS' CANDIDACY FOR THE POST OF NATO SECRETARY GENERAL. THEY SAY IT COULD BE JUST A MATTER OF DAYS BEFORE HE IS FORMALLY INVITED TO ACCEPT THE TOP NATO POST. HOWEVER, BEFORE MR. LUBBERS CAN BE APPOINTED, FORMER DANISH FOREIGN MINISTER UFFE ELLEMANN-JENSEN -- WHO HAS DECLARED HIMSELF AS A CANDIDATE -- WILL HAVE TO DROP OUT OF THE RACE. (SIGNED)

    NEB/JF/JWH/MMK
    31-Oct-95 9:49 AM EST (1449 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America
    .


    [12] TALBOTT / NATO (L ONLY) BY ART CHIMES (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=10/31/95
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-187761
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: A SENIOR MEMBER OF THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION SAYS RUSSIA AND THE OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION HAVE NO NEED TO FEAR THE EXPANSION OF NATO IN CENTRAL EUROPE. V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ART CHIMES REPORTS THE OFFICIAL ALSO EXPRESSED HIS BELIEF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WILL SUPPORT U-S PARTICIPATION IN THE PEACEKEEPING FORCE FOR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA.

    TEXT: DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE STROBE TALBOTT SAYS NATO IS NOT DIRECTED AGAINST RUSSIA OR ANY OTHER COUNTRY. THE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE WAS FOUNDED DURING THE EARLY YEARS OF THE COLD WAR AS A DEFENSE ALLIANCE, AND IT CONTINUES AS A DEFENSE ALLIANCE.

    MR. TALBOTT ANSWERED QUESTIONS FROM OFFICIALS IN MOSCOW, DURING A "WORLDNET" TELEVISION BROADCAST. THE U-S INFORMATION AGENCY OPERATES WORLDNET AND VOICE OF AMERICA.

    MR. TALBOTT SAID NATO IS TAKING ON NEW JOBS IN THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD. HE SAID AN EXAMPLE IS THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. HE URGED RUSSIAN LEADERS NOT TO INFLAME THE SITUATION.

    /// TALBOTT ACTUALITY ///

    IF YOU DESCRIBE IT AS NECESSARILY AND UNAVOIDABLY A HOSTILE DEVELOPMENT, THE ENLARGEMENT OF NATO, THAT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES THAT YOUR COUNTRYMEN WILL SEE IT THAT WAY. IT WILL CARRY WITH IT THE RISK OF A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY.

    /// END ACTUALITY ///

    THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MONDAY, IN A "SENSE OF THE CONGRESS" RESOLUTION, VOTED AGAINST SENDING U-S GROUND TROOPS AS PEACEKEEPERS IN BOSNIA. THE ACTION IS NOT BINDING, AND DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE TALBOTT SAID THE PRINCIPLE OF INTERNATIONALISM REMAINS STRONG AMONG THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.

    /// TALBOTT ACTUALITY ///

    THERE IS A RECOGNITION IN MY COUNTRY THAT WHAT HAPPENS IN FAR CORNERS OF THE GLOBE, AND CERTAINLY WHAT HAPPENS IN EUROPE -- AN AREA OF THE WORLD THAT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT TO US -- MATTERS TO US AS AMERICANS. OUR OWN SECURITY, OUR OWN PROSPERITY DEPEND, IN NO SMALL MEASURE, ON THE PROSPERITY, THE SECURITY AND THE STABILITY OF EUROPE.

    /// END ACTUALITY ///

    MR. TALBOTT ADMITTED THE QUESTION OF COMMITTING U-S TROOPS TO THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA IS A CONTENTIOUS ISSUE. BUT HE SAID THE ADMINISTRATION IS CONFIDENT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WILL SUPPORT THE USE OF TROOPS AS PEACEKEEPERS -- JUST AS THEY WILL REMAIN COMMITTED TO ACTIVE U-S ENGAGEMENT ON THE WORLD STAGE. (SIGNED)

    NEB/ART/RAE
    31-Oct-95 11:04 AM EST (1604 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America

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