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III-REPORT UPON NON-ARABIC SPEAKING PORTIONS OF FORMER OTTOMAN EMPIRE
ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF AN ARMENIAN STATE
The appended tables are the result of an effort to compare the population of Armenian areas to two plans. That which includes a "Larger Turkish Armenia" was worked out by the American Division of Western Asia at the Peace Conference, and can be examined more fully in the records of the Conference. It represents probably subject to minor alterations, the best possible arrangement on the basis of giving an outlet on both the Black and Mediterranean Seas; the frontiers follow natural features, and the connection with Cilicia is made as narrow as practicable. The "Smaller Turkish Armenia" suggested in the text cuts off for Armenia in Turkey substantially that portion of the Armenian plateau which was held by Russia in her period of advance during the great war. The phrase "Differential Area" was chosen to represent what is left after subtracting "Smaller Turkish Armenia" from "Larger Turkish Armenia," and extends from Mersina to Kharput and north to the Black Sea.
A. Before 1914. This table is estimated from the statistics prepared by Drs. Magie and Westermann. Percentages are attached. The Moslems are not separated into groups, they include about 400,000 Lazes on the Black Sea coast between Trebizond and Batum; about one half are Turks: most of the remainder are Kurds, some of whom are Shiite or Kizilbash, and the remainder Sunnite. Dr. Magie's figures may under-estimate the Armenians in some areas. Certainty will never be attained as to the numbers of the different elements in Turkey until a scientific ethnological survey has been made under disinterested control.
|Larger Turkish Armenia.||71||3,073,000||21.5||933,000||6.5||289,000||1||34,000||4,329,000|
|Differential area||73||1,697.000||20||461,000||6||136,000||1||18,000||2,312 000|
|Smaller Turkish Armenia||68||1,376,000||2354||472,000||7.5||153,000||1||16,000||2,017,000|
B. In 1920. It may be assumed that in 1920 order will be restored so that all survivors can return, of the Armenians who were deported or who fled into Russia, and of the Turks and Kurds who fled from the territory occupied Dr. threatened by Russia. An estimate follows, in which it is guessed that in the "Smaller Turkish Armenia" 50 per cent of the Armenians and Syrian Christians have perished, and 20 per cent of the Greeks and Moslems. The Armenians of the "Differential Area" had not the same opportunity to escape into Russia, and it is guessed that 75 per cent of these have perished.
|Larger Turkish Armenia||80||2,459,000||11||351,000||8||232 000||1||17,000||3,059,000|
|Smaller Turkish Armenia||75||1,101,000||16||236,000||8||122,000||1||8,000||1,467,000|
|Estimated losses in whole area||615,000||582,000||57,000||17,000||12,270,000|
C. In order to give the Armenians the benefit of their entire losses in Turkey during the war, one million may be added to the numbers of Armenians according to each plan. This of course has no relation to the practicability of established an Armenian State, but it displays the justice, on the basis of majority, of assigning them the "Smaller Turkish Armenia."
|Larger Turkish Armenia.||60||2,459,000||33.5||1,351,000||6||232,000||2||17 000||4,059,000|
|Smaller Turkish Armenia||45||1,101,000||50||1,236,000||5||122,000||8 000||2 467 000|
D. In 1925.-It may be assumed that on either plan, changes will take place between 1920 and 1925 in the following manner: 20 per cent of the Moslems will leave, and 300.000 Armenians will come from other parts of Turkey and the world. No account is taken of natural increase, but this would act against the percentage of the Armenians, because they lost men in far greater proportion than women, and because they are less numerous than the Moslems, particularly when the larger area is considered. It appears that in normal times before the war Armenians increased more rapidly than Moslems, because of differences in social systems and military service; conditions will probably reduce these differences in the future.
E. It remains to add Russian Armenia to the Turkish areas considered. The assumption has been made that Russian Armenia will contain in 1920, after the Turkish Armenians have gone home, a population of about one and one half times as great as that estimated by Mr. Lynch, in his "Armenia," Vol. I, p. 451. His actual figures, as of about 1890, for the Russian part of the Armenian plateau, are: Armenians 519,238, Moslems 459,580, Greeks, 47,76S, others 69,129, total 1,095,710.
|Russian Armenia||40||600,000||50||750,000||3||50,000||7||100 000||1 500 000|
|Larger Turkish Armenia with Russian Armenia||67||3,059,000||24||1,101,000||6||282,000||3||117,000||4,559,000|
|Smaller Turkish Armenia with Russian Armenia||57||1,701,000||33||986,000||6||172,000||4||108,000||2,967,000|
F. Finally it may be assumed between 1920 and 1925, 250,000 Armenians from the remainder of Russia and from other parts of the world, and that a like number of Moslems will emigrate. Again no account is taken of natural increase, which might make a small addition to the Armenian percentage.
|Larger Turkish Armenia with Russian Armenia||53||2,317,000||38||1,651,000||6.5||282,000||2.5||17,000||4,367,000|
|Smaller Turkish Armenia with Russian Armenia||40||1,231,000||50||1,536,000||6||172,000||4||108,000||3,047,000|
The whole calculation then shows a possibility under favorable conditions that by 1925 the Armenians can be in a small majority in an Armenia erected on the smaller basis. They would constitute about two-thirds of the population in the Russian portion, and a little over one-third in the Turkish portion.
In an Armenia on the larger basis they would not exceed 40 per cent for the whole area in 1925, and would then constitute about two-thirds of the population in the Russian portion, and not over one-fourth in the Turkish portion.