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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 132, 99-07-12

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 132, 12 July 1999


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT VISITS STEPANAKERT
  • [02] VIOLENCE MARS LOCAL ELECTIONS IN ARMENIAN CAPITAL
  • [03] AUSTRIAN FOREIGN MINISTER MEETS AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT
  • [04] AZERBAIJAN PROTESTS RESTRICTIONS ON OIL EXPORTS VIA RUSSIA
  • [05] AZERBAIJANI POLICE THWART JOURNALISTS' PROTEST
  • [06] ABKHAZ GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE ABDUCTED
  • [07] GEORGIAN OPPOSITION ELECTION ALLIANCE FORMALIZED
  • [08] RUSSIAN-KAZAKH ROW OVER BAIKONUR CONTINUES
  • [09] FIRE DESTROYS AIRPORT IN FORMER KAZAKH CAPITAL
  • [10] NEW KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY HOLDS FOUNDING CONGRESS
  • [11] KYRGYZ PREMIER ENDS VISIT TO UZBEKISTAN

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [12] KOSOVA SERB LEADERS 'END COOPERATION' WITH NATO, UN
  • [13] RUSSIAN TROOPS MOVE INTO KOSOVA ZONES
  • [14] U.S. TROOPS ARREST GUNMEN IN GJILAN
  • [15] ARBOUR INVESTIGATES KOSOVA WAR CRIMES IN REGION
  • [16] HUGE MASS GRAVE IN KOSOVA?
  • [17] ALBANIAN VILLAGERS LOOT REFUGEE CAMP
  • [18] SHOOT-OUT AT AUSTRIAN CAMP
  • [19] THOUSANDS PROTEST IN KIKINDA
  • [20] DJINDJIC SAYS PROTESTS TO GROW
  • [21] OPPOSITION ACTIVIST SENTENCED
  • [22] SREBRENICA SURVIVORS PROTEST
  • [23] WESTENDORP TELLS BOSNIAN MAYOR TO RESIGN
  • [24] SLOVENIA, ROMANIA AGREE, DISAGREE
  • [25] ROMANIAN PARTIES BRACING FOR EARLY ELECTIONS?
  • [26] MOLDOVAN DEPUTY PARLIAMENTARY CHAIRMAN DISMISSED
  • [27] MOLDOVAN PROSECUTOR-GENERAL RESIGNS...
  • [28] ...AS DEMANDS FOR PARLIAMENTARY CHAIRMAN'S RESIGNATION GROW
  • [29] GREEK, DUTCH CONSORTIUM BUYS MAJORITY STAKE IN BULGARIAN TELCOM

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [30] KARABAKH STRONGMAN LOSING INFLUENCE IN POWER STRUGGLE?

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT VISITS STEPANAKERT

    Robert Kocharian traveled to the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic on 10 July, together with Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutiunian and Interior Minister Suren Abrahamian, for talks with the enclave's president, Arkadii Ghukasian and its defense minister, Samvel Babayan, RFE/RL correspondents in Yerevan and Stepanakert reported. Government sources told RFE/RL that Kocharian expressed optimism that the discussions had laid the foundations for defusing the tensions between Ghukasian and Babayan. Those tensions emerged after the sacking last month of Karabakh Premier Zhirayr Poghosian, who was arrested on 9 July (see also "End Note" below). LF

    [02] VIOLENCE MARS LOCAL ELECTIONS IN ARMENIAN CAPITAL

    Voting for local council heads passed without incident on 11 July in three Yerevan districts where only one candidate stood for election, AP and RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. But at least eight people were seriously injured in the fourth district, Ajapniak, where armed supporters of one candidate opened fire on proxies representing a rival. The outcome of the Ajapniak vote has been declared invalid. LF

    [03] AUSTRIAN FOREIGN MINISTER MEETS AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT

    Wolfgang Schuessel met with his Azerbaijani counterpart Tofik Zulfugarov and with President Heidar Aliev in Baku, the last stop on his tour of Transcaucasus capitals, on 9 July, ITAR- TASS and Turan reported. Discussing the prospects for increased Austrian involvement in the Karabakh peace process, Aliev again warned that Azerbaijan "will never agree" to the creation of a "common state" comprising Azerbaijan and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. LF

    [04] AZERBAIJAN PROTESTS RESTRICTIONS ON OIL EXPORTS VIA RUSSIA

    Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR issued a statement on 9 July calling on the Russian government to act "resolutely" to prevent further stoppages in the export of Azerbaijan's oil via the Baku-Grozny-Novorossiisk export pipeline, Interfax and Turan reported. Since the beginning of 1999, that pipeline has been out of commission for a total of 95 days The SOCAR statement said that those stoppages have limited the amount of oil Azerbaijan could export and thus negatively affected the country's economy. It noted that under an intergovernmental agreement signed by Russia and Azerbaijan in January 1996, the Russian pipeline operating company Transneft is obliged to export some 2.5 million tons of Azerbaijani oil via Novorossiisk annually. Some 2,500 tons of Azerbaijani crude were pumped through the pipeline last week to Izberbash in Dagestan, from where the oil will be transported by rail to Novorossiisk bypassing Chechnya. LF

    [05] AZERBAIJANI POLICE THWART JOURNALISTS' PROTEST

    Police in Baku prevented a group of independent journalists from congregating near the Azerbaijan Publishing House on 9 July in order to undertake an unsanctioned march to the parliamentary building, Turan and Interfax reported. The journalists, whose number was estimated at between 80 and 300, intended to protest "attacks on the free press," including the recent beating of Kamil Tagisoy, a journalist with the opposition newspaper "Yeni Musavat" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 July 1999). The journalists issued a statement demanding the formation of an independent group to investigate reprisals against their colleagues, the removal of articles limiting press activities from the draft media bill currently under discussion, and the lifting of bureaucratic obstacles to the granting of licenses for independent television stations. LF

    [06] ABKHAZ GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE ABDUCTED

    All 17 members of the Abkhaz government-in-exile were kidnapped by eight masked men on 9 July, when their helicopter landed in the Kodori Valley, the only region of Abkhazia still controlled by the central Georgian government. The kidnappers released their prisoners the following day after talks with local governor Iveri Chelidze, claiming that the kidnapping was "a mistake." Four of the ministers had been badly beaten by their captors. The reasons for the incident remain unclear. Initial reports said the kidnappers wanted to exchange their hostages for associates held in prison in Tbilisi, but one of the captured ministers subsequently quoted the kidnappers as demanding that the Kodori gorge be declared "Free Svaneti." Inhabitants of the mountain region of Svaneti, which straddles the border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia, have for centuries had a reputation of lawlessness. LF

    [07] GEORGIAN OPPOSITION ELECTION ALLIANCE FORMALIZED

    Meeting in Batumi on 11 July, representatives of five Georgian left-wing opposition parties formally pledged to create an alliance to contest the upcoming parliamentary elections, Caucasus Press reported. The five parties are the Union for Democratic Revival, headed by Adjar Supreme Council chairman Aslan Abashidze, the Socialist Party, chaired by Vakhtang Rcheulishvili, the Union of Traditionalists, the Constantine Gamsakhurdia Society (one of several parties created by supporters of deceased President Zviad Gamsakhurdia), and the People's Party, which split three years ago from the National Democratic Party of Georgia. As of 30 June, 56 political parties had registered with the Central Electoral Commission to contest the poll. On 12 July, President Eduard Shevardnadze pledged to set the date of the election by the end of this week. LF

    [08] RUSSIAN-KAZAKH ROW OVER BAIKONUR CONTINUES

    Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeev and officials at Russia's Khrunichev Space Center said on 9 July that the 5 July explosion of a proton rocket launched from Kazakhstan's Baikonur cosmodrome was probably caused by engine problems. Kazakhstan's government has suspended further launches from Baikonur, including the planned launch on 14 July of a supply craft bound for the "Mir" space station, until the causes of the explosion are fully clarified. After flying over the region affected by the explosion on 10 June, Khrunichev director Yurii Koptev told Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Nurlan Balghymbaev that preliminary tests show no signs that the region has been contaminated by spills of toxic heptyl fuel. But Balghymbaev said Moscow had not shown adequate concern over the consequences of the disaster. He hinted that Kazakhstan may require Moscow to request permission for future launches from Baikonur, rather than simply notify the Kazakh authorities in advance, as has been the practice until now, Reuters reported. LF

    [09] FIRE DESTROYS AIRPORT IN FORMER KAZAKH CAPITAL

    Almaty's main airport was almost entirely destroyed by a fire that broke out during the night of 9-10 July, RFE/RL correspondents reported. No one was injured in the blaze, which is believed to have been caused by an electrical fault. LF

    [10] NEW KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY HOLDS FOUNDING CONGRESS

    The Ar- Namys (Dignity) party headed by former Bishkek Mayor Feliks Kulov held its founding congress in Bishkek on 9 July, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Kulov told the 742 delegates present that to date some 2, 400 people have applied for membership in the party, of which he was elected chairman. Interfax quoted Kulov as telling congress participants that Ar-Namys aims to stabilize all aspects of the situation in Kyrgyzstan and to create a law-abiding and democratic society. (In a 7 July interview with "Nezavisimaya gazeta," President Askar Akaev claimed that Kyrgyzstan is already a democratic state.) LF

    [11] KYRGYZ PREMIER ENDS VISIT TO UZBEKISTAN

    Amangeldy Muraliev ended a two-day official visit to Uzbekistan on 10 July, Russian agencies reported. Muraliev held talks with his Uzbek counterpart, Utkir Sultanov, parliamentary speaker Erkin Khalilov, and President Islam Karimov, who noted that the "speedy resolution" of unspecified outstanding problems in bilateral relations would benefit both countries. Reports of the meetings suggest, however, that little progress was made in this direction. Muraliev was to have discussed the transfer to Kyrgyz control of oil and gas fields in southern Kyrgyzstan's Osh and Djalalabad Oblasts previously worked by Uzbekistan, but no document regulating this issue was reported to have been signed. LF

    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [12] KOSOVA SERB LEADERS 'END COOPERATION' WITH NATO, UN

    Serbian Orthodox Archbishop Artemije and Kosova Serb political leader Momcilo Trajkovic said in a statement on 11 July that the Kosova Serbian leadership will "cease cooperation [with the UN and NATO] as long as violence continues" against Serbs in the province, the "Financial Times" reported. The Serbian leaders stressed they will not participate in UN Special Representative Sergio Vieira de Mello's multi-ethnic "transitional council" until the security situation improves. Artemije and Trajkovic appealed to U.S. President Bill Clinton to receive a delegation representing the Serbs of Kosova. In Prishtina, a UN spokesman said that he agrees that the "level of violence is too high" but added that the statement nonetheless came as a "surprise," Reuters reported. The spokesmen added that the statement "doesn't seem to be a recipe for trying to improve the situation." PM

    [13] RUSSIAN TROOPS MOVE INTO KOSOVA ZONES

    Advance troops of the Russian contingent moved into Kamenica in the U.S. sector and Malisheva in the German sector of Kosova on 11 July. Over the weekend, hundreds more Russian troops arrived at Prishtina airport. In Rahovec, near Malisheva, about 3,000 ethnic Albanian protesters continued demonstrations against the deployment of the Russians (see "RFE/RL Newsline, " 9 July 1999). In Malisheva, ethnic Albanian children gathered around a Russian armored personnel carrier with about 10 soldiers and chanted, "UCK, UCK" in reference to the Kosova Liberation Army. A "Financial Times" correspondent noted that some of the Russian troops were "waving the distinctive Serbian three-fingered salute." No further incidents were reported. FS

    [14] U.S. TROOPS ARREST GUNMEN IN GJILAN

    U.S. peacekeepers arrested 11 unidentified people on 10 July in Gjilan, a KFOR spokesman told AFP in Prishtina the next day. In one incident, unknown gunmen fired shots in the vicinity of a patrol that was investigating a grenade attack on an apartment building. The soldiers arrested four men and two women as they came out of the building and another five men nearby. The peacekeepers later discovered a dead body inside the building and a wounded person. The peacekeepers also found several weapons, including five rifles, seven pistols, and ammunition. In a separate incident, U.S. troops fired at gunmen who had earlier fired shots out of their car. No one was reported injured in the incident. FS

    [15] ARBOUR INVESTIGATES KOSOVA WAR CRIMES IN REGION

    Louise Arbour, who is the chief prosecutor of the Hague-based war crimes tribunal, arrived in Tirana on 11 July to discuss the ongoing Kosova war crimes investigation with her Albanian colleagues. The Albanian government has set up a special group of legal investigators who over the past two months have interviewed refugees in Albania to gather testimony from witnesses and victims of war crimes. Albanian officials have pledged to hand over all evidence to the tribunal. Arbour is scheduled to fly to Skopje on 12 July and will subsequently visit Kosova. FS

    [16] HUGE MASS GRAVE IN KOSOVA?

    A NATO spokesman said in Prishtina on 9 July that KFOR troops have sealed off a site near Ljubenic, in western Kosova, so that forensics experts from the Hague-based war crimes tribunal can investigate reports of a mass grave there. Local ethnic Albanian villagers recently told KFOR troops that in April Serbian forces systematically killed and buried some 350 Kosovars there. The villagers stressed that the killings had no military justification because the UCK was not strong in that area. If the reports prove true, the mass grave would be the largest one found to date in Kosova, Reuters reported. PM

    [17] ALBANIAN VILLAGERS LOOT REFUGEE CAMP

    An Albanian was killed on 10 July during a shoot-out between police and a crowd that attacked and looted an Italian-run refugee camp near Vlora, Reuters reported. An Albanian soldier was injured during the shootout. The crowd surrounded and looted the camp after the last refugees left for Kosova and Italian officials turned over the camp to the Albanian authorities. An unnamed eyewitness said that "the situation was completely out of control because armed men fired from all sides and the police could do nothing." He added that the crowds took everything "except the field hospital, which the Italians had donated to the Vlora hospital a day earlier." The camp had modern toilets, spacious tents, and electrical wiring. FS

    [18] SHOOT-OUT AT AUSTRIAN CAMP

    In Shkodra on 9 July, Austrian troops shot and wounded two out of four Albanians who drove up to the Austrian refugee camp and began firing with automatic rifles, AP reported. An Austrian Red Cross spokesman said that the attack was apparently linked to fights among rival clans. FS

    [19] THOUSANDS PROTEST IN KIKINDA

    More than 4,000 people attended a rally in the eastern Vojvodina town of Kikinda on 11 July to demand the resignation of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. Over the weekend, dozens of army reservists protested in Vranje to demand back pay. On 10 July, some 1,500 anti-Milosevic demonstrators gathered in Leskovac (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 July 1999). On 9 July, the town councils of Nis and Sombor passed resolutions calling on Milosevic to resign. In Novi Sad, university students held a protest meeting. They later issued a statement calling on the federal president to go because of "10 years of failed policies" and appealing to the Serbian Orthodox Church and Yugoslav Army to support the opposition, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM

    [20] DJINDJIC SAYS PROTESTS TO GROW

    Serbian opposition Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic told Reuters in Belgrade on 9 July that the strategy of his anti-Milosevic coalition Alliance for Change "is to organize protests in the 15 to 20 largest cities in Serbia during the next 15 to 20 days. Our goal is daily protests throughout the country. By mid-August, we should be able to stage the biggest protest, [which will be] in Belgrade" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 July 1999). Djindjic added that a transitional government of experts could take office in the interim between Milosevic's resignation and the holding of new elections. The opposition leader suggested that former Central Bank Governor Dragoslav Avramovic would be an excellent candidate to head an interim government. PM

    [21] OPPOSITION ACTIVIST SENTENCED

    The Democratic Party said in a statement on 11 July that Goran Vesic, who is a party activist and member of the Belgrade City Council, was sentenced by a military court in Uzice "in secret to two years in prison for failing to respond to a military call-up notice and for high treason." The statement said that the sentence was designed to intimidate Vesic from taking part in opposition activities. The text added that military courts have launched proceedings against 12,000 men in Montenegro for allegedly failing to respond to call-up notices. One leading Belgrade lawyer noted that similar cases are pending against a total of 23,000 male Yugoslav citizens, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. As for Vesic himself, he denied that he was ever drafted into a reserve unit or had received a call- up notice, AP reported. PM

    [22] SREBRENICA SURVIVORS PROTEST

    Several thousand mainly Muslim women and children who survived the 1995 Serbian conquest of Srebrenica demonstrated in Sarajevo on 11 July to mark the fourth anniversary of the capture of the eastern Bosnian town. The survivors demanded that the international community take action to clarify the fate of the missing 8,000 Srebrenica males, who are widely believed to have been massacred in the largest single atrocity in Europe since the end of World War II. PM

    [23] WESTENDORP TELLS BOSNIAN MAYOR TO RESIGN

    The international community's Carlos Westendorp called on Sanski Most Mayor Mehmed Alagic to resign or take a leave of absence until corruption charges against him are cleared up, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 9 July. Westendorp also called on the town council of Sanski Most to lift Alagic's immunity from prosecution. Alagic was a prominent Muslim general during the 1992-1995 war. Corruption is endemic throughout Bosnia and is the largest obstacle to reviving the economy. PM

    [24] SLOVENIA, ROMANIA AGREE, DISAGREE

    Romanian Prime Minister Radu Vasile and his host, Janez Drnovsek, said in Ljubljana on 9 July that NATO should admit several countries of southeastern Europe to the alliance. Vasile mentioned Romania, Slovenia, and Bulgaria by name, Reuters reported. Drnovsek did not specify which countries NATO should take. Vasile also stressed the need to develop "quadripartite cooperation between Italy, France, Slovenia, and Romania." Drnovsek responded, however, that the proposal is not sufficiently clear because it does not specify the concrete role that each country would play in the group of four countries, Radio Bucharest reported. PM

    [25] ROMANIAN PARTIES BRACING FOR EARLY ELECTIONS?

    The Romanian National Party (PNR) on 10 July announced it will start negotiations with the Party of Romanian National Unity (PUNR) on setting up an alliance for the 2000 local elections and on a "possible merger of the two formations," RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. The next day, however, PUNR leader Valeriu Tabara said that his party does not envisage any electoral alliance and that any party that wants to join the PUNR would have to merge with it rather than vice versa. The PNR also elected former Romanian Intelligence Service chief Virgil Magureanu as its first deputy chairman to replace Mihai Berca, who left the party on 22 April to become deputy chairman of the Alliance for Romania Party. Also on 9 July, the nationalist Vatra romaneasca organization said it will begin negotiations with the Party of Social Democracy in Romania on forming an electoral alliance. MS

    [26] MOLDOVAN DEPUTY PARLIAMENTARY CHAIRMAN DISMISSED

    Valeriu Matei, leader of the Party of Democratic Forces (PFD), was dismissed as deputy parliamentary chairman on 9 July by a vote of 59 to four, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. The Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM) had demanded his dismissal, accusing him of corruption. Apart from the PCM, deputies from the Christian Democratic Popular Front (FPCD) and the pro-presidential For a Democratic and Prosperous Moldova Bloc voted for Matei's ouster. The PFD and the Democratic Convention of Moldova (CDM) did not participate in the vote. In an interview with RFE/RL on 10 July, Matei said he was "a victim" of "communist machinations" and President Petru Lucinschi's "scenarios for destabilizing the [ruling] Alliance for Democracy and Reform (ADR)" and for "introducing an authoritarian regime." MS

    [27] MOLDOVAN PROSECUTOR-GENERAL RESIGNS...

    Prosecutor-General Valeriu Catana resigned on 9 July, parliamentary speaker Dumitru Diacov announced the same day. His resignation came after the activities of the Prosecutor General's Office were criticized in an 8 July report to the legislature by the Committee for National Security and Public Order and after the demand by PFCD leader Iurie Rosca that Diacov tender his resignation because he was allegedly covering up Catana's links with the underworld. Catana resigned without waiting for the house to vote on whether to dismiss him, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. MS

    [28] ...AS DEMANDS FOR PARLIAMENTARY CHAIRMAN'S RESIGNATION GROW

    CDM parliamentary group leader Mircea Snegur on 9 July told journalists that Diacov "has no moral right" to remain in his post, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. The former Moldovan president said that the CDR will demand Diacov's resignation "even if this means the breakup of the [ruling] ADR." Parliamentary deputy chairman and FPCD leader Iurie Rosca, repeating his earlier demand for Diacov's resignation, said the speaker must depart as soon as possible. He added, that he doubted Diacov would do so "of his own accord." MS

    [29] GREEK, DUTCH CONSORTIUM BUYS MAJORITY STAKE IN BULGARIAN TELCOM

    Bulgaria on 9 July sold a 51 percent stake in the state-owned Telcom company to a consortium of the Greek OTE and the Dutch KPN NV. The consortium paid $502 million for that stake and another $8 million for shares owned by a manager-employee Telcom association. The consortium will also invest $200 million in the company. BTA reported that this is the largest privatization sell-off in Bulgaria since 1989. Also on 9 July, Privatization Agency executive director Zahari Zhelyazkov said in a report on the agency's activities over the last six months that 80 percent of the state-owned companies slashed for privatization or liquidation this year have been sold off or closed. The private sector now accounts for more than 65 percent of the country's GNP, he said. MS

    [C] END NOTE

    [30] KARABAKH STRONGMAN LOSING INFLUENCE IN POWER STRUGGLE?

    by Emil Danielyan

    A 10 July visit by top Armenian leaders to Stepanakert, the capital of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, appears to have defused--at least for now--tensions between Karabakh President Arkadii Ghukasian and the enclave's powerful defense minister, Samvel Babayan.

    Discord between Babayan and Ghukasian first emerged in the spring of 1998, when the latter forced the then head of the Karabakh cabinet to resign. Ghukasian proposed assuming the duties of prime minister himself but was rebuffed by the pro-Babayan parliament. Babayan's preferred candidate, Zhirayr Poghosian, was named premier.

    At the end of last month, Ghukasian fired Poghosian and his cabinet without warning. The official explanation was Poghosian's failure to improve the republic's economic situation. But reliable sources in Stepanakert told RFE/RL that the move was triggered by the disclosure of a surveillance device in Ghukasian's office, which Poghosian was suspected of having ordered planted. On 11 July, the Karabakh chief prosecutor revealed that Poghosian has been arrested and will be formally charged with illegal arms possession. It is unclear how that accusation is related to his alleged surveillance activities.

    Ghukasian's hail of criticism directed against Poghosian was clearly also aimed at Babayan, to whom the ex-premier was known to be loyal. It also reveals the extent of the president's frustration with his hitherto limited role in Karabakh politics. The new prime minister, Anushavan Danielian, a former deputy parliamentary speaker in Ukraine's Autonomous Republic of Crimea, was Ghukasian's choice, as was the enclave's new interior minister, Artur Aghabekian.

    Both of the new appointees, for their part, have come under strong criticism from Babayan's loyalists. Some deputies in the Karabakh parliament are reportedly seeking Danielian's dismissal, while other reports spoke of acts of defiance among police staff directed against their new boss. On 6 July, Babayan's brother Karen, who is mayor of Stepanakert, went on local television to criticize President Ghukasian.

    Senior commanders of the Karabakh army similarly expressed their discontent at a meeting with Ghukasian on 6 July. Three days later, 11 senior army officers announced that they have returned all their military decorations to protest what they termed inaccurate media accounts of the 6 July meeting. Those reports claimed they had pledged their backing for Ghukasian in his struggle with Babayan. The presidential press office responded the same day with a statement suggesting that the 11 officers had acted on Babayan's orders.

    The Armenian leadership in Yerevan has made clear its unequivocal backing for Ghukasian. On 7 July, President Robert Kocharian's press secretary warned that "Armenia will not act as an indifferent observer with regard to Nagorno- Karabakh if any illegal attempts are made against its legitimate authorities." That warning suggested Kocharian may be worried that Babayan's political ambitions are no longer confined to Karabakh. A nationalist bloc backed by Babayan won eight seats in the 131-member Armenian parliament in the 30 May elections, while several independent lawmakers are also believed to be under his tutelage. And there is speculation that Babayan's hard line on the conflict with Azerbaijan could thwart Yerevan's future efforts in the peace process.

    Unlike his rival politicians, the 33-year-old Babayan does not have a university degree, having risen to prominence on the battlefield. He is largely credited with leading the Karabakh army to victory over Azerbaijan. In the political arena, he has been rather shrewd, largely acting from behind the scenes. But Babayan may have reached the point where any further advance will not be tolerated by others.

    Together with Armenian Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutiunian and Interior Minister Suren Abrahamian, President Kocharian, who is Ghukasian's predecessor as Karabakh president, visited Stepanakert on 10 July in a bid to find a way out of the standoff between Ghukasian and Babayan. Government sources there told RFE/RL that Kocharian expressed optimism about the success of his mission after talks with the two rival camps. He told a group of local prominent figures that the problem will be settled "more easily" than had seemed possible, the sources said.

    More important, the Armenian president was quoted as saying that "issues related to the [Karabakh] army will definitely be solved" and as reaffirming Armenia's unconditional support for Ghukasian. No official statements to that effect have been made to date, but all the signs are that Babayan will lose at least some leverage as a result.

    There seems to be little the defense minister can do now in the face of mounting pressure from Yerevan. The blatant use of the military against Karabakh's civilian authorities would never be forgiven. Such an extreme measure is unlikely, however, not least because Babayan's rivals are offering him a face-saving exit from the crisis whereby he would keep his current post. It cannot be ruled out that Babayan would also be allowed to retain a certain say in key government appointments.

    The author is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Yerevan.

    12-07-99


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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